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Trons
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01-07-2009, 07:17 PM
Post subject: Turn Play?
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 86
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Preflop: Hero is CO with  , 
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 3-bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls
I didn't like btn raising and liked MP1 limp-raising even less...However, after about 15hands with MP1, I had him pegged as vLag...I don't trust numbers with that few hands because it could be sample size, but i saw him bet out into a 3 person field with 2nd pair...and call down with bottom pair against a PF raiser...His raise (to me) screams mid-low PP and he wants a big pot if he hits/bluffs people off their cards. Button seemed fairly str8 forward, but had it been his raise alone, I would have called anyway because of odds.
Flop: (18.4 SB)  ,  ,  (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 calls
Bottom pair and backdoor FD, I think it's worth pealing another one...Big question here, I had BTN pegged as fairly passive, so, given PF action, I figured there was a 50% he wouldn't raise this flop bet. I can't do complicated math in my head, but I figured a couple things may happen, remember, I'm trying to recreate how I thought about it at the table...
A) I call, BTN raises, MP1 calls, I still have some pretty good odds to see another card.
B) I call, BTN raises, MP1 3bets and I can safely fold
C) exactly what happened, I call, and at least one other person called (2 actually, but I was hoping for at least one).
Other thoughts here was that there would be at least one other caller besides BTN because the pot was so large...
Turn: (11.2 BB)  (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero ???
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Ez foaled.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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5 outs requires 8-1 ish. Getting better than that. Peel to the ace or 3 fold the river brick, raise the river ace or 3.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Meh. Not all of your outs are clean.
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Trons
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 86
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Meh. Not all of your outs are clean.
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I know how I calculated my outs on the turn, I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on it though, to back check/correct my reasoning
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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Of the 3 aces and 2 3's available. 25 is a hand you think your opponents would get into like this?
I'll bet they are all like 99% clean
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trons
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Meh. Not all of your outs are clean.
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I know how I calculated my outs on the turn, I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on it though, to back check/correct my reasoning |
You put MP1 on a mid-low PP, right? That's 33, 44, 66. JJ is a possibility. AJ could be out there (but I don't see it). You can hit one of your cards and not have the best hand.
I'd say you have maybe 3.5 outs.
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Also, 5 saw the flop, right? Odds are that 3 Aces are still out there is low, assuming this is micro/small stakes.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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That doesn't make your outs dirty. Until you have proof the out is gone, you have to calculate it as an unseen card.
Even though you truly don't actually have 9 true outs (because people have folded your flush draw outs) when drawing to your nut flush, the odds are exactly the same, because on average the number of flush cards leaving the deck in a smaller deck. so it's like 9 outs to 47 unseen cards, versus 5 outs to 28ish cards. same odds.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ragnar4
That doesn't make your outs dirty. Until you have proof the out is gone, you have to calculate it as an unseen card.
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Nope, doesn't make them dirty...I'd still use 3.5 outs. It's just another read consideration.
Quote:
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Even though you truly don't actually have 9 true outs (because people have folded your flush draw outs) when drawing to your nut flush, the odds are exactly the same, because on average the number of flush cards leaving the deck in a smaller deck. so it's like 9 outs to 47 unseen cards, versus 5 outs to 28ish cards. same odds.
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It's a totally different situation to flush cards. Poor players aren't more likely to play hearts at small stakes, for example, but they are more likely to play Ax and call far too many bets with an Ace holding.
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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fold turn, more important than all else (clean/unclean outs - immediate odds) is the fact that you are not closing the action. This was "meh" on flop, but those are still small bets. Now we are talking BBs.
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"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.
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St8ofN8
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Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 60
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First post, so you'll probably take this with a grain or two of salt.
Fold the turn. I don't mind the calling the flop because you still have a number of quality outs from there, including the FD. But even if the river comes up A there's still a good chance that you're not holding the top hand, considering the PF action. Unless you get a sense that the whole table is really loose. Plus your position isn't great. In the long run, regularly calling here would just lead to spewing chips.
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