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Bawookles
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01-19-2007, 11:06 AM
Post subject: The Turn, the most important decision post-flop?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 35
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Hey, all!
After playing limit hold em for a little while and looking for leaks in my game I've come to the conclusion that the turn seems like the most important decision to make post-flop (sorry if this is all too obvious to many).
The turn is of course where the betting amount in limit hold em doubles from the initial amount. It seems to me that if one is calling down with second pair and generally questionable draws, etc. at the turn then that's how one really bleeds away chips in limit hold em.
If I get to the turn with my cards I ask myself "Do I have the best probable hand?" or "do I have a draw with 8 or more outs to the best probable hand?". If I can't answer "yes" to either of these questions then I am out of there on the turn (assuming I saw the turn in the first place).
This is an over-simplified way at looking at limit hold em, I know, and I certainly don't think it applies too much to heads up play when you are driving the betting but it's a little policy that works well for me in multi-way pots.
Obviously there are important decisions to make pre-flop, at the flop, and on the river but I think minimizing one's losses in limit hold em is sort of the name of the game to profits in the long run and the crucial point to do that is when the betting goes up at the turn.
Thoughts on this?
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sinky
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: SCOTLAND
Posts: 295
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Quote:
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If I get to the turn with my cards I ask myself "Do I have the best probable hand?" or "do I have a draw with 8 or more outs to the best probable hand?". If I can't answer "yes" to either of these questions then I am out of there on the turn (assuming I saw the turn in the first place).
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One of the toughest spots I find is when I have been the aggressor with a TP or overpair hand and I am raised on the turn. It's going to cost you 2 more BB to get to showdown.
Is he a maniac ?
Can he be raising on a draw ?
Does he try to get "smart" and slowplay with TPGK ?
Could he have 2 pair ? I might have some hidden outs.
Am I crushed by a set or better ?
What size is the pot ? ie) How often does a call down need to win to make a profit ?
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Bawookles
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 35
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sinky
One of the toughest spots I find is when I have been the aggressor with a TP or overpair hand and I am raised on the turn. It's going to cost you 2 more BB to get to showdown.
Is he a maniac ?
Can he be raising on a draw ?
Does he try to get "smart" and slowplay with TPGK ?
Could he have 2 pair ? I might have some hidden outs.
Am I crushed by a set or better ?
What size is the pot ? ie) How often does a call down need to win to make a profit ?
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And the turn is when a person's big hands are revealed like this. If it's heads-up and you know if the player you are going up against is especially tricky or aggressive, your top pair or overpair is probably worth calling the raise, if you are in a multi-way pot it's time to get out of there.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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versus your typical low stakes player i usually give a player that raises the turn credit for 2 pair or better.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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You are more or less correct that the turn is the key street in limit hold-em. This is assuming you have a very solid preflop game (if you don't, better worry about that first). Your rules for staying in on the turn are quite bad, however. I'm not going to detail it all, because the information is there in a multitude of places. Basically it's a pot odds and value bet decision. Not to leave you completely hanging, I will give 2 examples of this. Suppose you have a hand which is worth 4 outs (a gutshot to the nuts). Folding this on the turn for one bet is a huge mistake if there are 11 big bets in the pot. It's all about pot odds. Your 9+% chance of winning the pot is worth more than the 1 bet you have to put in. For value betting, suppose you have an overpair and think that you are ahead about 40% of the time and have 2 opponents. You are last to act and the first player bets and the second calls. Raise for value. You don't even have a better than 50-50 chance of winning, and not many outs to improve, but you are ahead enough of the time (greater than 1/3) to make this for value.
Study up on the pot odds. A general rule for staying in on the turn makes you a weak player because it ignores the single most important consideration in limit hold-em ... how big is the pot?
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Bawookles
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 35
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
You are more or less correct that the turn is the key street in limit hold-em. This is assuming you have a very solid preflop game (if you don't, better worry about that first). Your rules for staying in on the turn are quite bad, however. I'm not going to detail it all, because the information is there in a multitude of places. Basically it's a pot odds and value bet decision. Not to leave you completely hanging, I will give 2 examples of this. Suppose you have a hand which is worth 4 outs (a gutshot to the nuts). Folding this on the turn for one bet is a huge mistake if there are 11 big bets in the pot. It's all about pot odds. Your 9+% chance of winning the pot is worth more than the 1 bet you have to put in. For value betting, suppose you have an overpair and think that you are ahead about 40% of the time and have 2 opponents. You are last to act and the first player bets and the second calls. Raise for value. You don't even have a better than 50-50 chance of winning, and not many outs to improve, but you are ahead enough of the time (greater than 1/3) to make this for value.
Study up on the pot odds. A general rule for staying in on the turn makes you a weak player because it ignores the single most important consideration in limit hold-em ... how big is the pot?
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Oh, I know all this stuff, I was just making a very general statement about it. Sometimes you do have odds for your gutshot (usually not though). And when I have position and I'm either heads up or against two opponents it's a different story entirely.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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If you know all that stuff, why ask the question in a way that makes it look like you have very little idea what pot odds are or how to play post flop?
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Bawookles
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 35
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
If you know all that stuff, why ask the question in a way that makes it look like you have very little idea what pot odds are or how to play post flop?
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Hey, I was just asking if people agreed with me that decisions on the Turn are the most important. From that you've made some presumptious assumptions about me, and you know what happens when you assume, you make an ASS out of you and..... well, you, basically.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bawookles
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
If you know all that stuff, why ask the question in a way that makes it look like you have very little idea what pot odds are or how to play post flop?
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Hey, I was just asking if people agreed with me that decisions on the Turn are the most important. From that you've made some presumptious assumptions about me, and you know what happens when you assume, you make an ASS out of you and..... well, you, basically. |
Comments like this from ppl like you make ppl like Xan not want to post in here. It's a shame too cuz he knows a helluva a lot more than you do.
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Bawookles
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 35
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Comments like this from ppl like you make ppl like Xan not want to post in here. It's a shame too cuz he knows a helluva a lot more than you do.
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Sorry. I don't mean to cause problems. He's the one who got on my ass in the first place, why I don't know. The title of this thread is merely about the importance of the turn in one's decision-making post-flop.
If you read my entire initial post I said that my personal guidelines are an over-simplification and I assumed everyone here knows how to count their outs and figure their odds according to pot size etc. There's no such thing as a sure-fire formula for making poker decisions as it's always situational, how many people in the hand, your position, the nature of the other players, etc. etc.
I guess I asked an overly obvious question in the first place as most players would agree that the turn is the most serious street in limit. Next time, I will make sure to indicate to Xan how much I know about odds, etc. so I don't confuse him again or force him to make snap judgements about players and people he doesn't know from a hole in the wall.
Please excuse me for wasting your precious time.
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