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Schoolaments

03-12-2007, 01:06 AM Post subject: TT vs heavy PF action

#1 (permalink)

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Villain has only been at table a few hands. Nothing out of line.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with

. CO posts a blind of $0.25.
4 folds, MP3 raises, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP3 caps, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17 SB)

(4 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, CO folds, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB)

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB)

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

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euphoricism

03-12-2007, 01:54 AM

#2 (permalink)

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donk the river!

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bigspenda73

03-12-2007, 03:06 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

donk the river!

UH, no?

Unless he's a maniac AK isn't firing the turn, it's checking through. I bet/fold the turn. If called I b/f the river.

euphoricism

03-12-2007, 03:46 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Uh, yes. Hero appears to want to go to showdown, and is check/calling the river. A donk is better.

I think b/f the turn gives villain too much chance to play correctly. But yeah, we're probably behind.

And if villain is the thinking type, the double donk will be met with an insta raise. I sure as hell always did.

Donk the river.

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NWNewell

03-12-2007, 09:01 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Donk the river.

Help me out here euphor... I don't quite get donking the river.

I would think we would get better value from letting the villain bluff at the river with a worse hand than from the rare times he folds to a bet with a better hand.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

euphoricism

03-12-2007, 10:11 PM

#6 (permalink)

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I think two things are given on this hand: Villain aint bluffing a river. Villain aint folding a better hand. I guess in that sense it doesnt matter what we do, but a river donk can be good for metagame.

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euphoricism

03-12-2007, 10:21 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Well ok, what are villains likely hands
66, 99, AK, JJ+

66: Villain probably calls a river bet, just because thats what they do, but doesnt bet it.

99: Villain almost always calls a river bet, but wont bet the river from time to time.

AK: Villain folds to a donk, but may bet the river some small % of the time. Not often.

JJ+ Villain will call a donk or raise it and we fold, villain will bet it himself. This is a wash.

no I guess it doesnt really matter which you do -- but I like a donk. Great for looking more tricky than you are.

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KoRnholio

03-12-2007, 11:30 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NWNewell

I would think we would get better value from letting the villain bluff at the river with a worse hand than from the rare times he folds to a bet with a better hand.

This is my usual line of thinking against unknowns. Given that he capped preflop (indicating probably AQ+/99+) I don't think a bet on the end is very good.

If he has JJ+ we're at least getting called.
If he has AK/AQ he may call our bet, but may even raise us off our hand.
If he has air he will fold usually.

If we check, air probably fires again. AK/AQ may or may not bet again.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

Renton

03-12-2007, 11:40 PM

#9 (permalink)

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i don't understand why i read these threads.

I guess i'll never be good at limit poker, because i simply don't understand how a debate can even occur over whether to c/c with a solid hand getting 13.5:1 or to bet out, giving your opponent 13.5:1.

KoRnholio

03-12-2007, 11:48 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

I guess i'll never be good at limit poker, because i simply don't understand how a debate can even occur over whether to c/c with a solid hand getting 13.5:1 or to bet out, giving your opponent 13.5:1.

Fixed Limit Hold'em is all about pushing these tiny edges. Often the decisions are extremely close (hence, debatable in either direction) but it all adds up in the end.

Here I think we are behind more often that not, and if our bet gets raised it is disastrous for us since we either have to call (now getting 15:1) when most likely behind, or try to make a heroic fold (also very bad, since our odds are so good). Check-calling in this spot saves us from getting into that bad situation, while enabling the villain to bluff again if he has air.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

euphoricism

03-12-2007, 11:54 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Yup, our discussions often hinge on what happens in 0.5% of cases (kinda like this one -- its really just about does air fire another bet? I say no, some people say yes, and this changes everything)

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bigspenda73

03-13-2007, 12:03 AM

#12 (permalink)

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I never ever see AK takes this line. That is all, we are praying for 99 here IMO.

euphoricism

03-13-2007, 12:07 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

If we check, air probably fires again. AK/AQ may or may not bet again.

This contradicts itself.

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KoRnholio

03-13-2007, 12:33 AM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I never ever see AK takes this line. That is all, we are praying for 99 here IMO.

I've seen (and sometimes done so myself) AK take the line of bet/bet/check behind quite a bit. The board is quite raggy (with a possible spade draw on the flop) and the 8 is unlikely to have helped the Hero.

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

If we check, air probably fires again. AK/AQ may or may not bet again.

This contradicts itself.

Not necessarily. AK especially is more than air, since it beats all other A-high hands that someone might take to the river (maybe even a showdown getting 13:1) on a raggy board.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

bigspenda73

03-13-2007, 01:03 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I never ever see AK takes this line. That is all, we are praying for 99 here IMO.

Lemme correct myself. I never see anyone at .25/.50 raise a flop with AK and fire again at the turn unless they are a slight maniac/rare LAGG player.

NWNewell

03-13-2007, 01:36 AM

#16 (permalink)

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Euphor, I see where you are coming from... fair enough. Thought maybe I was missing something else. At first I was thinking c/c would be far better. But I guess against the possible range, it probably doesn't matter much as much as I originally thought. It might come down to whether or not he would fire a river bluff with AK. I think c/c is safer and less volatile, but donking that can make you look a little stupid and add some meta game value.

Renton,

As they said, Limit is all about finding small edges. What I'm looking at is this:

JJ+ (38% of the time) is definitely going to call, probably raise a bet. So we are probably going to another >1.25bb. but check calling is only going to cost us 1bb
b/f vs c/c
-1.25 -1 (i.e. calls our bet 75% and raises our bet and we call 25%; bets when we check and we call 100%)

99 (10%) is most likely going to just call the river. And would probably bet the river if checked too. We'll say:
b/f vs c/c
+1.1 +0.9

66 (5%)might call the river bet, and definitely would not raise it. And would most likely not bet the river.
b/f vs c/c
+0.8 +0.1

88, 77 (10%) will call and most likely raise our river bet. and would definitely bet the river.
b/f vs c/c
-1.5 -1

Now I think it is pretty less likely for 66,77, 88 to play preflop and flop that way, so I'm discounting how often they have these hangs occur.

So far, during these situations (63%) we are looking at:
b/f vs c/c
-.475bb -.385

So, the remaining 37% of the time he as AK(s). And what this decision really hinges on is will we get more value from our villain calling our river bet with nothing but Ace high, or from our villain firing a third barrel on the river with air? Or more precisely, will we get 0.090bb more from the villain calling our river bet? I think it is a toss up and probably opp/read dependent.

But the small reason I like c/c'ing better is because with this range, we would have to assume our river dong is probably going to get raised close to 50% of the time by a better hand. So we've reduced our potential river showdown pot odds from 13.5:1 to more like 10.5:1. Against our oppenents probably hands we are about 50/50 (I'm assuming that our opponents are at least going to draw AK(s) to the river with this size pot) so we but betting out we just gave up an EV of over 1bb.

But of course, if we b/f the river, things are not as bad. But that leaves us opened to the occasional bluff. I'd try to avoid being put into situations where I can be bluffed of the pot (and Renton, that is why I suck at NL)

But all in all, you are very rarely going to run into some one capable of firing on the turn, river, and bluff re-raising the river. So, I'm not all that worried about being bluffed here. And some meta game plays are good, but online it can sometimes be overrated.

wow... all that to basically come to the same conclusion i started this post with... as euphor said, it is pretty much a wash....

Obviously, I couldn't have worked all this out in my head. But I think the c/c line is slightly better in more situations than the b/f would be. I would most likely stick to c/c as my standard play.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

euphoricism

03-13-2007, 02:35 AM

#17 (permalink)

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Ok now back to some more useful advice:

OP, dont lead the flop with TT after villain caps you preflop.

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NWNewell

03-13-2007, 11:51 AM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Ok now back to some more useful advice:

OP, dont lead the flop with TT after villain caps you preflop.

What? You trying to say my evaluation in that last post was useless? Ok... maybe it was... but I was board and it gave me something to do.

But I concur... I wouldn't lead the flop. I'd probably c/r the flop.

If he is going to call your lead out with overs, then he'll probably call a c/r with overs too. And since he capped and has the lead, he's probably going to bet with anything so you won't be giving a free card. If he has a better PP, you will give yourself opportunities to save at least a small bet by c/r the flop and seeing how he reacts to it instead of waiting until the turn.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

euphoricism

03-13-2007, 05:23 PM

#19 (permalink)

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hahah yeah let me rephrase... More useful to OP. The rest of it was useful to well, the rest of us ;p

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bigspenda73

03-13-2007, 05:40 PM

#20 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NWNewell

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Ok now back to some more useful advice:

OP, dont lead the flop with TT after villain caps you preflop.

So if we c/r the flop, get called and get raised on the turn we're folding right? We'd have near enough odds to peel the river and once we call the turn we're kinda stuck calling the river.

NWNewell

03-13-2007, 07:39 PM

#21 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

c/r the flop, get called and get raised on the turn we're folding right? We'd have near enough odds to peel the river and once we call the turn we're kinda stuck calling the river.

Yes, we can get away from the hand if he raises the turn.

Near enough odds to call a turn raise? Hmm... I'm not seeing it.

If the pulls a stop-n-go on us when we c/r the flop I'm almost certain he has an over pair (or the turn most likely gave him a bigger pair). We need to hit our set to win. So, with 17sb on the flop. Our c/r and the opponent call puts that at 21sb (10.5bb). If he raises the turn, we're 13.5:1 to call his raise. Even if we include the implied odds of being about to pull off a c/r on the river when we hit we are only at 15.5:1 with less that a 5% chance to win. Calling that turn raise is -0.175 EV at best.

Do you think he is bluffing, or thinks a worse hand is good, often enough to make up that EV?

If we don't hit our ten, we need to commit two more bb just to find of if our pocket tens will hold up. So our showdown odds are 7.25:1. Which means our TT have to hold up roughly 14% of the time to give to make up for our -0.175 EV draw attempt. (13.5% win ~ +.225bb)

I think our TT will be good less than 10% of the time against a turn raise after our flop c/r.

So yes, I fold if our flop c/r is called and he raises the turn (unless he is an absolute maniac, then I might think about calling down).

PS

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

hahah yeah let me rephrase... More useful to OP. The rest of it was useful to well, the rest of us ;p

haha... no need to rephrase.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

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