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Anosmic

09-16-2006, 06:43 AM Post subject: TT and JJ

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

I'm having trouble working out how to play these PPs properly, especially out of position.

Last night I was TT up against what seemed a solid TAG and he raised from MP2 two fold, I (SB) raise BB folds, Villain calls.

Flop comes up Q3J with the latter two being spades. I bet, he raises.

Here's where I get in trouble. So far I've seen that this is as likely to be a flush draw as anything else (i.e AQ).

The way I figure it I've got a pot of 10sb; I'm going to have to pay a maximum of 5sb (call this raise, 2 BB calls) if I go directly into showdown mode and I need to be holding the winning hand 25% of the time to make this worthwhile.
I'm not sure if this is +EV here. I'm of course giving him a free ride on his flush draw (but that seems to work out as I'm being paid off 3:1 on a 3:2 shot.
I should probably fold to any A or spade (because what else would he have than Ax, Kx, Qx or spades at this point).

This seems horrible though. I'm ahead if he has Axs (just) and behind if he has a K or Q and looking for a 2-outer.
It would seem to me that it is -EV to call here; even though I'm frequently ahead.

A line I'm thinking about is call here, bet/3-bet a non-spade, non-A turn and then if he's raised the turn I check/call the river and if he's just called I bet/call the river.

But it seems a lot of bets to pump into a pot with two overcards showing.
Is better if only one overcard is on the board?

What does the flush draw do if I bet the non-spade turn?

Meh. I can't think straight.

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

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kyc12

09-16-2006, 01:30 PM

#2 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2006

Posts: 89

This is tough. I would have c/r the flop and if called, lead the turn and fold to a raise there. As you played it, it really depends how likely villian is going for a free cad. Given that you will may not be able to extract full value from villian as he has position on you, folding maybe better than calling.

I remember SSH discussed a hand like this, where you're either in pretty good shape or way behind.

Nehmer

09-16-2006, 02:35 PM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Decatur, IL

Posts: 666

I think you may be overestimating how often he is on the draw here. I tend to just fold to the flop raise in these situations.

koolmoe

09-16-2006, 05:29 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Drowning in prosperity

Posts: 1,279

Just fold. He's likely ahead already. Even if you are ahead, the reverse implied odds are pretty bad, as any A, K, or spade (and any T or 9 to a lesser degree) are scary cards on that board.

Anyway, you are only getting 2:1 on your money to see a showdown, and when you combine the times you are behind (and crushed) with the times you are ahead but get drawn out on, I think you win less than 33% of the time.

Poker is freedom

NWNewell

09-17-2006, 02:32 AM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL

Posts: 283

Depends

Your thoughts are accurate, but your analysis is a little off.

Thinking about going to showdown already is definitely a Negative EV. (and a bit premature)

True, he could very likely be raising the flush or open-ended straight draw as much has he could have hit a higher pair, trying to get a half price look at the river. But the real question is how often will he raise the flop on a draw.

If you think it is often, say 50%. You can call the flop raise with the following EV for the flop call alone:

50% of the time you are ahead and his draw will hit the turn a little less than 20% of the time. 50% of the time he has a Q or J and you have less than a 5% chance to improve on the turn. With great odds to call one small bet on the flop, you have about +4BB EV in this situation.

So, the flop call is a pretty favorable desicion.

Now comes the tricky part. Your real decision comes on the turn. I'm checking the turn.

If a straight or flush card comes on the turn, and he bets, I'm folding. If a non straight or flush card comes on the turn and he checks, I think he is on the draw and I'll bet or check depending one the river. If a non-straight or flush card comes on the turn and he bets, I think it is more likely that he has the Q orJ (and I'm way behind), so I'm folding.

Basically, I think folding the flop is a mistake. Calling has good EV AS LONG AS you re-assess well on the turn and stick too your plan. I'm calling the flop and letting the turn card and my opponents action dictate the rest of my play.

But again, this depends on your opponent. If he is passive and relatively unlikely to raise the on a draw (even as much as 20%), this can get a little hairy.

So, the safe play is to fold the flop. But if you can make a dicipline read on the flop (basically continuing if a non draw card falls and your opponent takes his free card), then I think calling the flop and re-assessing has better EV.

Just my two cents.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

arkitekton

09-17-2006, 05:06 AM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

Excellent post, NWN

sinky

09-18-2006, 12:02 PM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: SCOTLAND

Posts: 295

If opponent is on a draw then it is likely he also has an A or a K giving him ~12 outs. He will hit is hand 45% of the time by the river. So taking the earlier assumption that you are ahead on the flop 50% of the time. So you are likely to win 27% of times. (2.7:1)

Looks like pot is giving you 10:1, but if you are behind or he hits on the turn or he fires again with his draw, it will cost you 4 more SB for a showdown. So pot odds are ~ 2.5:1

This is a little closer than I thought. However not sure I like the assumption that I am ahead 50% of the time on the flop, so I still fold.

Chopper

09-18-2006, 02:58 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

i can appreciate all the "scientific" jargon, as this is the game of LHE. however, in this case, it is much simpler than that.

in a small stakes game, where people make horrid decisions on a routine basis, 3rd pair w/ a weak back-door str8 draw is a TERRIBLE spot on the flop. you basically missed the flop entirely. get out on the flop, if bet into. you will just get yourself into more expensive trouble trying to protect against some guy w/ overs or a flush draw, or both, or a J, or a Q, or Q3, etc, etc.

all the EV talk aside, how often do you win with an UI 3rd pair in the hole at a showdown? and how do you protect against overs and flushes "chasing" in such a small stakes game?

easy/cheap flop laydown to me, and not much "thought" needed.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

NWNewell

09-20-2006, 03:15 AM

#9 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL

Posts: 283

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

I agree that 50% is typically not realistic. That's why I premised my post with needing to have a read on your opponent, and stating that folding is the safe play.

If he would raise a draw for a free turn card as little as 25% of the time, it is still, mathmatically profitable... but marginally so, and great turn play/read becomes more or an issue. (to be honest, with position, I would raise this draw to try and take a free card on the turn relativively often... probably at least 25% of the time).

And keep in mind, with the 10:1 pot odds to call, you're oppoent only has to miss his draw, show you that from is turn play 9%. If the pot was too much smaller (I'd probably say any less than 8:1), I it wouldn't be worth it and I would fold.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

scarface737

09-20-2006, 03:27 AM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2006

Location: sunnyvale, california

Posts: 37

u have no clue where u r in the hand ;even if a blank comes on the turn hes playing aggressively. ull think u have a great read and push only to see he has u dominated.

Xanadu

09-20-2006, 04:07 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

Here's something to consider. Just plugged it into pokerstove, and with a reasonable raising range from HJ for a TAG (77+, A9o,A8s,KJ0,KTs,QJs,JTs), your TT is under 42% to win. So it all comes down to reads.

If your opponent will only raise those hands in that range which give him a pair J or higher, a flush draw, or at least a gut shot (AT or AK), then you are only about 26% after he raises. Of course, the pot is too big to just fold if you know the guy is aggressive enough to raise all these hands. Let's see what happens when different turn cards come.

T: winning chances increase to about 65%
non spade 9: winning chances increase near 36%
spade 9: winning chances increase to about 30%
blank (6d etc.): still at about 26%
Q or J (blanks too DUCY?): 26%
non spade K: drops to about 18%
spade K: drops to about 16%
any A: drops to below 9%

So we can see that if the opponent is truly aggressive, and would bet or raise the turn with any hand that beats you, it is hard to bet the turn if it is not a ten. If the turn is a K or A, you should most definitely check and fold. For any non-T, you have to know how capable this guy is of firing two barrels without a hand. The percentage needs to be pretty high.

If your opponent is a little tighter post flop and would not raise a non spade AT (really the only hand in the range an aggressive player might not raise), your winning chances drop from 26 to less than 20% on a blank. That's a pretty thin margin to be calling down with.

The problem here is that a flush draw flop with a Q and a J in it is just plain horrible in this situation, out of position with TT. In fact, you can't even count on much implied odds catching a set because you will lose so often when you do catch a T. This must be played very cautiously, and you need a read to really know what to do.

Here's an idea. Check call the flop against opponents with a HJ range like the one I listed above. Why? Because your bet won't protect your hand because most of the holdings your opponent could have hit the flop in some way. Also, the bet is not for value because you can't be a favorite against a reasonably tight and aggressive player. Even adding a few hands to the range doesn't help because QJ and QT and Q9s are going to be among them. If this is a good player, he knows better than to be too aggressive on this flop without some kind of hand. Being OOP sucks hard here.

NWNewell

09-20-2006, 04:34 AM

#12 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL

Posts: 283

I agree, Xanadu. I would probably check/call the flop. But I think the more dificult part is how to proceed on the turn. That is why skipped the detail you went into with the pokerstove analysis and tried to explain my line for the turn play.

Oh, and in addition. If we check/call the flop, a blank hits the turn and he checks, we are thinking it is likely he is on a draw. If the river brings a non-straght or non-flush card, I would check/call the river too and try to induce a bluff. You see, if you bet the river, is is probably going to call with hands that beat use (maybe a Jack), but fold hands that we beat. So our bet typically gains nothing, but could lose something. But if we check and he bets, we could be beat and lose if we call. But he could also very well try to bluff the river since we called, checked, checked, and we will gain an extra bet. But we don't mind checking for the slow down too. So, if you get to the river without any more scary cards coming, it is better EV to check/call than bet.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

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