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trips vs tighty OOP

  
 
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drmcboy
Old 07-08-2009, 04:07 AM     Post subject: trips vs tighty OOP #1 (permalink)  
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 Have not played enough yet on FT or at 2/4 to know him well, but from what I have seen MP is a pretty passive player (like 28/5), seems pretty good given that. He plays more than one table, but not more than 6 or so that I can tell.

I have been raising a lot but aside from a couple AI pots vs shorties not much has happened.

I went ahead and posted the whole hand, but would like feedback on all streets as I don't really think the river is the most interesting street.

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($404)
Button ($1013.70)
SB ($441.70)
BB ($208.40)
Hero (UTG) ($498.65)
MP ($474.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K, J, A
Hero bets $12, MP calls $12, 1 fold, Button calls $12, SB calls $10, BB calls $8

Flop: ($60) 8, J, J (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $38, 3 folds, Hero calls $38

Turn: ($136) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $136, Hero calls $136

River: ($408) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $288.90 (All-In), Hero
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TLR
Old 07-08-2009, 05:11 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Flop: I would probably lead here, I think giving a free card here is risky
Turn: as played I C-R turn. I think you probably still have the best hand (I dont think 88 or J8 are likely for a tight player to call a raise with.
River: I dont think u can fold here


 
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drmcboy
Old 07-08-2009, 05:26 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Everyone calls raises with hands like xJx8, I don't really understand what you're saying. QJT9, QJT8, T988, KQJ8, etc, etc. Folding these hands IP is very tight and villain is not very tight. If he was looser I would feel better since he could have more stuff like J654 with a suit.

What is the plan if you get raised on flop?

What hands do you think call a turn CR?

What hands do we beat on the river?

I would say there is a less than 5% chance he's betting a naked over pair once, and a 0% chance he does it twice unless he's turning it into a bluff. He lead into 5 people on the flop in a raised pot, someone has a J pretty much always so it's pretty safe to assume he does. The question is which J he has and what he's putting me on.
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drmcboy
Old 07-08-2009, 05:48 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 On the flop we're a 55/45 favorite vs QJT7 (also hands like QJ96, QJT6) which is about the worst hand I can think of that he'd get it in with. We get to ~65/35 against KJT7 or QJ99 but I don't think he ever felts these on flop or turn because it's almost impossible for them to be the best hand vs action.
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bigspenda73
Old 07-08-2009, 09:59 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 meh river is a fold, don't hate flop/turn but that's an awful river card except his turn betsizing makes me think he has 88xx instead of J8xx which I'm not sure if he'd jam the river with.

TLR, we'd be leading into 5 people with something like 5 outs when all the money goes in, which is why I can see an argument for not betting flop.
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drmcboy
Old 07-08-2009, 11:30 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 is it crazy to fold the turn? it seems crazy but...

I figure I'm folding Q,T,9,7 rivers for sure, and I was hating my hand even if I caught a 2.


I also kicked around the idea of trying to bluff out AJxx/88 on the end
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bigspenda73
Old 07-08-2009, 11:54 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 i like teh way you think doc
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TLR
Old 07-09-2009, 05:23 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drmcboy
Everyone calls raises with hands like xJx8, I don't really understand what you're saying. QJT9, QJT8, T988, KQJ8, etc, etc. Folding these hands IP is very tight and villain is not very tight. If he was looser I would feel better since he could have more stuff like J654 with a suit.

What is the plan if you get raised on flop?
Depends on his raise size, but it is a tough spot, I think that if he reraises us on the flop he probably has us beat
Quote:
What hands do you think call a turn CR?
Not many, but you probably can get him to fold combo straight draws or Jx, if he calls a C-R the worst he has is JA

Quote:
What hands do we beat on the river?
Yeah, I agree there is not much we beat on the river, best case scenario for us is that he has AJ


 
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