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TP v pre-flop aggressor, out of position

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Anosmic

10-05-2006, 08:29 AM Post subject: TP v pre-flop aggressor, out of position

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

Wasn't sure if to get involved in this hand, and then was really unsure what is the best value line to take...

Limit Hold'em CryptoLogic ($1/$2)
Converted by FTRConv
9-handed

StacksBB: $28.66
Hero: $33
UTG+1: $51.50
UTG+2: $61.24
MP1: $80
MP2: $56.75
CO: $62.25
BTN: $84.30
SB: $65.41

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with J

Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO 3-bets, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls,

Flop:(10.5SB) 4

(3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 folds, CO calls,

Turn:(7.25BB) T

(2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls,

River:(11.25BB) T

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls,
Final Pot: 13.25 BB

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

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midas06

10-05-2006, 09:33 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 2,196

I don't like the flop lead.

Kessler

10-05-2006, 04:24 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Las Vegas

Posts: 117

I don't like KJo UTG. Unless you're trying to fold around and steal the blinds. PFR is poopy for same reason.

I think Villians turn raise says he has a better king than we do, or we're toast anyway.

-Kes

If you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague.

outphase

10-05-2006, 04:57 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 949

preflop: addressed by Kessler
flop: addressed by midas
turn: i'll field this one. Turn raises usually say "I have TPTK or better." You have 3 outs to improve (the J), your K are not always good. I guess give them half outs since they might improve your hand, but you might not win. so that's 1. You're drawing to 4 outs on the turn. (also assuming you're not already behind a set, for sake of argument, this won't deduct outs).

from a strictly EV standpoint for ONLY the turn call, not river:

Assume your opp has AK.
You need 1 of 3 Jacks to win.
3/44 = 0.0681
you are being laid 10.25:1 = 0.0976

EV = -0.0294

Assume your opp has AA
You will win if you catch a K or J = 5 outs
5/44 = 0.1136

EV = 0.016

The pot is big enough to make a (almost) breakeven call, but you have to evaluate what you believe opponent to hold. Also, if you don't improve, calling the river also affects the value of the decision.

Someone check my math on that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

NWNewell

10-05-2006, 08:06 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL

Posts: 283

I don't even think things are that good.

3-bet pre-flop, slowplaying the flop, raising the turn....

Looks like KK, AA, AK, maybe TT. I don't think we can even count a King for 1 out.

I'm giving you 3 out to give you a winning, and even then it will only be a winner 75% of the time at the very most (opponent could have KK). So, I think you have a lot closer to 2.5 effective outs than 4 effective outs.

Even if you include your implied odds for when you hit your Jack on the river, your EV is probably closer to -0.3BB

Should try to fold the turn. Definitely, without question, fold the river.

Even if you are ahead... you will be so rarely against a hand that is played this way that it is not profitable to continue past the turn.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

bigspenda73

10-05-2006, 10:08 PM

#6 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,545

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

I like your play here

BTW what's your sn on crypto, just wonderin...

Oh yea, Fold PF

Anosmic

10-05-2006, 10:57 PM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I like your play here

BTW what's your sn on crypto, just wonderin...

Oh yea, Fold PF

What, going to come and steal my cash?

Actually I have a number of sns as I play most of the skins. Most regularly is some variant on "Anosmic". Are you on Crypto?

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

bigspenda73

10-05-2006, 11:20 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,545

No, I don't play on crypto, it was a joke.

And it wouldn't be stealing, when I drop change into a bums cup outside of Walmart I don't say he stole it from me

outphase

10-06-2006, 03:09 AM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 949

I know this sounds bad, but if your hand must get to showdown, your hand is only good for check/calling down. Any raises will only be called by better hands most of the time. They will be reraised even more so by even better hands.

So, fold preflop, you're out of position with a hand dominated an overwhelming amount of time vs a 3bet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

dsaxton

10-06-2006, 07:18 AM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Arlington, VA

Posts: 2,667

I check-raise the flop. If he's passive on big bet streets, I think you might be able to fold the turn, but if he's aggressive, you should probably call down.

arkitekton

10-06-2006, 07:36 AM

#11 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

A lot of good posts here, so I'll just reinforce a little.

Anosmic, KJo is only a calling hand utg preflop is you're in a loose passive game where people play badly after the flop. It's so far from a raising hand I'm wondering if you need to do some basic starting hand study. I don't mean this at all as an insult, just wanting to save you some $. Raising with that hand is a HUGE leak.

Anosmic

10-06-2006, 06:18 PM

#12 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

Quote:

Originally Posted by arkitekton

Not insulted. To be honest when you're running at -1.3BB/100 I don't think you can afford to be sensitive about things

Actually this month I'm only -0.70 over the first 1.5k hands, feels like a victory :S

I seem to be playing incredibly tight (16/9 has now become more like 14/10), basically I'm not making enough outside of the blinds to offset my losses in the blinds (which are too high as well).
So I try to play more hands in these tight games, so things like KJ come in... but I don't like to open limp and so I'm usually raising all sorts of stuff from early/mid position.

I'm finding it very tough to beat these games and the styles recommended by, say, WLLH just don't work when things are so tight.

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

arkitekton

10-09-2006, 01:36 AM

#13 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

16/9 seems pretty normal to me, but then I play games where the cumulative villain VP$IP is around 23. A rule of thumb is to play tighter than your opponents, up to a point. When they got too tight (and good luck figuring where that line is) you can take advantage by being more aggressive--basically by stealing, winning small pots with bluffs, and so on.

NWNewell

10-09-2006, 10:59 AM

#14 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL

Posts: 283

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anosmic

Not insulted. To be honest when you're running at -1.3BB/100 I don't think you can afford to be sensitive about things

Actually this month I'm only -0.70 over the first 1.5k hands, feels like a victory :S

I seem to be playing incredibly tight (16/9 has now become more like 14/10), basically I'm not making enough outside of the blinds to offset my losses in the blinds (which are too high as well).

So I try to play more hands in these tight games, so things like KJ come in... but I don't like to open limp and so I'm usually raising all sorts of stuff from early/mid position.

I'm finding it very tough to beat these games and the styles recommended by, say, WLLH just don't work when things are so tight.

What are you basing your starting hand requirements off of? If you are not already, I would definitely recommend SSHE 3-5 Players per flop starting hand chart. This is a good solid chart for almost all small stakes tables. If you are sitting at a 25% players per flop table (not 25% VPIP, I'm talking 25% players per flop. there is a big difference), this chart may get sticky it some situations (but you should never be sitting at a 25% table at the lower stakes, you can always find better tables >35%... and if there are none, come back in an hour or two and there will be)

So, if you are strickly following the SSHE 3-5 chart, don't worry about your preflop play too much. This chart is giving you fighting chance to play profitably. VPIP can vary a lot depending on the table style. 12/7.5 might be profitable (and what you get from the charts) at more aggresive table (since you are not about to limp with things like suited connectors from late position as much, but when you enter the pots you are raising with strong hands and taking down bigger pots with your few big hands), but 18/10 might be profitable at loose/passive tables. Just trust that following good starting hand requirements chart like SSHE will put you in position to make money post flop. The rest is up to you and making good decisions post flop.

Now it is up to you to play well post flop. That is where you will win or loose your money.

Read the rest of SSHE and focus on playing solid postflop play, i.e. not playing weak hands like 2nd pair (when not heads-up or without some decent drawing opportunities to make up for your vulnerability ) or 3rd pairs, only continuing if you have top pair decent kicker or proper drawing odds, and giving very serious consideration to fold top pair and even sometimes weaker two pair when played back at on the turn or river when the pot is not real big (at lower stakes, a turn raise or c/r, and a river bet/raise from someone who was not leading almost always means they made something, be aware of straight and flush posibilities).

This last one about giving serious consideration to folding when played back at is something I still need vast improvement on. I payoff way too many rivered straights and flushes (and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know they hit).

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

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TP v pre-flop aggressor, out of position

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