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Top set, river call... wuss or genius?

  
 
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outphase
Old 10-05-2006, 04:13 PM     Post subject: Top set, river call... wuss or genius? #1 (permalink)  
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The board was just all against me in this one. I figure i'm not gonna make a "huge laydown" as I have to see what he has... am I right to call here or should I pop it to 3? No reads here.

It wasn't the river 2 that made me think. It was the flop cap + river check/raise on such a blank.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J, J.
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9, J, 8 (3 players)
SB bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 4 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 2 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB folds, UTG raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB
Quote:
Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
 
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NWNewell
Old 10-05-2006, 07:27 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I like the call.

The way he played it confuses me...

- maybe he flopped a straight and the flush care scared him. But why raise the river?
- maybe he pumped the flush draw and turned a weak flush and wants to make sure a 4th club doesn't give anyone a high flush.

Both seem kind of stupid (but stupid people do stupid things).

I don't know...

But he pot is too big to fold. Getting 14:1, you don't need to be a head often.

Looking at 3-betting the river... What is your risk vs reward?

When you are ahead, you are probably winning 1 more BB. But when you are behind, he will probably cap and you are probably loosing 2 more BB. So, by raising and opening the door for him to re-raise, you could be are risking as much as 2BB to win 1BB. So you need to be at least a 2:1 favorite to make this raise. I am inclinded to say that when I am raised on the river, it is unlikely that I'm a 2:1 favorite.

So, I think raising is probably -EV compaired to calling (less positive than raising).
My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 10-05-2006, 10:14 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 He has an underset looking for a blanked river, I 3bet the river. No way am I just smoothcalling top set with that board, sure it looks connected, but not after the flop play. I think the only 2 hands that beat you here are ATc or maybe a poor play with QT. Otherwise I think its 88
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dsaxton
Old 10-06-2006, 04:57 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I think one problem with raising is that you're faced with a cap when you're beat, and he just calls when you're winning. And I think villain's line looks a lot like a flush. I'd just call.

It seems as though he was pumping a big draw on the flop, but slow-played once he hit. A pretty odd play, but it's usually the type of hand you see when an average player does something like this, I think.
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arkitekton
Old 10-06-2006, 07:50 AM #5 (permalink)  
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damn that's odd. Maybe he was taking a bathroom break during the turn and his 7 year old kid checked the flush. or maybe he turned around, thought he was now behind the small blind and went for the overcall.

22?
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NWNewell
Old 10-09-2006, 11:11 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
He has an underset looking for a blanked river, I 3bet the river. No way am I just smoothcalling top set with that board, sure it looks connected, but not after the flop play. I think the only 2 hands that beat you here are ATc or maybe a poor play with QT. Otherwise I think its 88
I like your read, as confusing as this hand is to me... an passive player worried about his underset getting drawn out makes probably the most sense (still not a hand that was played straight forward or well enough by the oppoent for me to be sure of anything). But still, good call. I overlooked the underset possibility.

With that in mind, if you read it that way, it might be worth a raise. But still, you have to be right more than 2/3 of the time to raise, so I still don't mind calling instead raising the river.
My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 10-10-2006, 05:46 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 If he has a flush I say nice play
If he has a straight I say nice read
If he has something like J9 I buddy list him

The more I look at it the stranger the hand seems, I think he flopped a straight. By 3betting the flop he cannot have you on a flush draw and therefore can raise a non club river.
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midas06
Old 10-10-2006, 06:02 AM #8 (permalink)  
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I play this exactly the same. Except some days I may check behind on the river.
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bigspenda73
Old 10-10-2006, 06:40 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by midas06
I play this exactly the same. Except some days I may check behind on the river.
Explain that reasoning plz, can you really be scared of a c/r here?
Checking top set w/ no aggression on the turn/river seems a bit weak.
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