Originally Posted by euphoricism

Hard to say. Probably beat. Calling these down with TP and essentially no kicker hurts a lot and is a major cause of poor winrates worldwide.

I probably check through turn.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Well, you're getting 7-1 on your draw, 8-1 including implieds, but you need 11.5-1 to be able to go solely for the gutshot. You're a 4.5-1 underdog if villain has AT, 3.75-1 if villain has KT or worse.

Villain's range includes: AT, AK, KT, QJ, T8, TT, 88; so 3/7 the time we're drawing to 4 outs, needing 11.5-1. 2/7 we're drawing to 10 outs, needing 3.75-1. 1/7 we're fucked up the ass completely, and the other 1/7 we have 7 outs, needed 4.5-1.

Add these up percentages up and you have roughly 15% chance to win the hand, getting 8-1 (12.5%), its a call.

Sounds simple enough, and you have to believe the likelihood of him having each hand is relatively the same, other than the sheer number of times he is dealt each hand. It's close, and its definately not an easy fold and I'll probably call here and check/fold the river if I don't improve.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

You raise many questions but they're not all that hard to answer.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

First, the wider your villain's range is the more likely I'm going to call. The more aggressive your villain's range is the more likely I'm going to call. Villain has a wide calling range but not that much of a raising range, and I would say 95% of the time you're beat here. How often are villains raising their draws on the turn in this game? I'm guessing not very many.....

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

IMO, there is no other way to solve this problem than put your villain on a range of hands, and figure out your equity to decide whether you call or not. If I were 7 tabling, I would probably still call the turn raise without much thought, it is folding for one bet on the river where I would have a problem...

Originally Posted by Nehmer

maybe not too hard to answer, but at least for this hand, I called down, but the whole time thought that I maybe should have folded. Then the first few answers here all tell me I should fold, then you say it's a definate call....maybe it's a tougher question than it looks and similar situations come up often, so might as well make sure we are very right.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff First, the wider your villain's range is the more likely I'm going to call. The more aggressive your villain's range is the more likely I'm going to call. Villain has a wide calling range but not that much of a raising range, and I would say 95% of the time you're beat here. How often are villains raising their draws on the turn in this game? I'm guessing not very many.....

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff IMO, there is no other way to solve this problem than put your villain on a range of hands, and figure out your equity to decide whether you call or not. If I were 7 tabling, I would probably still call the turn raise without much thought, it is folding for one bet on the river where I would have a problem...

Originally Posted by Xanadu

Once again, Jeff shows the folly of my replies.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

I like a check through autocall with top pair midkickers in position a lot.