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arborman
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11-08-2007, 03:59 AM
Post subject: Top pair & Flush draw on turn
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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I'm new to the table. The only read I have is button, who is a fishy - 51%VPIP over about 70 hands, fairly passive. The other three are strangers to me, and presumably I am a stranger to them. If button is paying attention he'll have me as a tight player, but I doubt he has much of a clue.
PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J , Q.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.
Flop: (10.50 SB) Q , 8 , 7 (5 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, Button folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.
Turn: (9.25 BB) 5 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero ???
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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A raise can't chase out better flush draws, or buy you outs. I think you have so many outs that you don't mind having a large pot.
Call, hope for overcalls.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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That's kind of a wierd donkbet for MP2 to make there. If he had a weak hand he would probably check and call to see how many bets it will cost to see the river. With a great hand like a straight (96 for OESD on flop) he would probably check-raise since you will likely bet it.
BB looks to be on a medium pair/AK type of hand, and the other callers could have hands like 8x or T9 that have outs against us if we let them in cheap. I would raise since those hands are getting odds to chase for one bet. Also if a card like the 6 of hearts comes off, we might get paid off more having raised the turn 
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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If I were to take a guess (i.e. in the absence of Pokerstove) I think the decision between call and raise is so close that it makes no EV difference. In the heat of battle I'd probably click "Raise" and in the cool of consideration I'd probably click "Call" looking for overcalls.
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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raise PF
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Eupho theorem, which is really obvious but apparently not obvious enough:
If an aggressor appears on a street in which he was not the aggressor on the previous street, raising him with non-nut hands is suicidal.
This is definitely not the spot to raise the turn, and you should probably fold the river UI.
This bet is the equivalent of those guys who play live poker and are 80 years old and you can see the excitement in their face when they hit their hand. Meanwhile they've completely neglected any sort of strategy, because they're too caught up in their own cards to think about yours. I JUST HIT MY HAND! JACKPOT! BET!
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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fold
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I just call here - we're probably behind but we have 15 outs to two pair or better and will likely get paid off if we hit.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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sinky
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: SCOTLAND
Posts: 295
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
fold
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Don't think so. Flush draw. Call.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
If an aggressor appears on a street in which he was not the aggressor on the previous street, raising him with non-nut hands is suicidal.
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sound advice
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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you can not count all outs as clean
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Eupho theorem, which is really obvious but apparently not obvious enough:
If an aggressor appears on a street in which he was not the aggressor on the previous street, raising him with non-nut hands is suicidal.
This is definitely not the spot to raise the turn, and you should probably fold the river UI.
This bet is the equivalent of those guys who play live poker and are 80 years old and you can see the excitement in their face when they hit their hand. Meanwhile they've completely neglected any sort of strategy, because they're too caught up in their own cards to think about yours. I JUST HIT MY HAND! JACKPOT! BET!
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True enough, but it could well be a straight or lower two pair. Sometimes it is a moron with a gutshot who thinks he needs to pump the pot or somesuch foolishness. I think this is one of those 'Way ahead/Way behind hands' where it is worthwhile to showdown, but slow down on the way (i.e not raise, at least until the river).
A dream river involves the straight completing with a heart card, IMO, in which case I happily cap given the chance - few people are wary of a backdoor flush, especially when they hit their backdoor straight. A nightmare river is a completed straight with no heart, in which case I check and call or fold depending on the action.
If it's a brick on the river I tend to check call.
And here I am giving myself advice in my own thread. I can't actually remember the outcome of the hand right now - I'll have to go find out if what I just said is nonsense or good.
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
you can not count all outs as clean
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Enough are clean often enough for a call, IMO. And anyone who is chasing an ace or king might be able to find a fold with a raise - buying a few. That said, I refer to my above post.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
you can not count all outs as clean
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wow does the size of the pot mean anything at all to you?
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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yes it does but folding is still correct when you think about the fact that your flush draw is no good.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
yes it does but folding is still correct when you think about the fact that your flush draw is no good.
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LOL
how can you even come close to assuming this man?
We HAVE showdown value
We CAN improve to the best hand
The pot is HUGE
Anything but calling here is bad IMO
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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3rd nut backdoor flush against 3 villains is good here at least 95% of the time. If you *really* want to discount one out for the 8h (that pairs the board), go for it. It's still at least a call though.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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9 hearts, 2 queens, 3 jacks = 14 outs for two pair or better. knock a couple off for potential paired boards and you still have 12 outs, which is roughly 3:1 for a call. If you must, take out a couple more just in case someone is hanging on with AhXh and you have 10 outs, making it about 3.7:1 for a call.
The pot is 10.25 BB to me = 10.25:1 to call, and marginal to raise given the implied odds. I have top pair and a decent kicker, so I have a decent chance of winning with a brick as well (though there is that straight on the board). Nevertheless, that top pair probably makes a raise-call line worthwhile for the turn.
If River's a brick then bet and raise. If River completes the flush then bet and raise. If river completes the straight then call or fold (depending).
Once again I find myself answering my own post. 
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Raising a bricked river would be stupid.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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if you call the turn then you can not fold the river for 1 bet. Folding on the river for 1 bet in a large pot is one of the worst mistakes that you can make in lhe. Don't take my word but people smarter then me say so
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Raising a bricked river would be stupid.
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You're right. I got carried away with my overthinking there, I think.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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I don't think calling and raising differ much in terms of expected value, but raising has higher expected fun.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
yes it does but folding is still correct when you think about the fact that your flush draw is no good.
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Wow, do you really believe this?
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