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Top 2 Pair VS Likely Straight on the River

  
 
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NWNewell
Old 08-28-2006, 12:10 PM     Post subject: Top 2 Pair VS Likely Straight on the River #1 (permalink)  
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$10/$20 Limit Holdem Ring Game - 6 players

Pre-flop: (6 players) NWNewell is Button with Q K
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, CO folds, NWNewell 3-bets, SB calls all-in $29.5, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, NWNewell calls.

Flop: T Q K (11.35SB, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 11.35SB)
UTG+1 bets, NWNewell raises, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: J (7.67BB, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 5.67BB, Sidepot 1: 2BB)
UTG+1 bets, NWNewell calls.


Ok, so this hand is pretty standard up until the Turn.

On the turn, I was thinking he probably has the Ace (although might have hit two pair, or hold a 9 for the low straight).

So, that probably leaves me 3 remaining aces, and possibily 4 Kings & Queens. Roughly 14% to improve (7.1:1) and I'm getting 8.5:1 Pot Odds. So, the river call has good odds, but I don't think raising the turn is going to do me any good (any disaggreement with the turn Call vs Raise?)

But my main question is, do you fold an unimproved river to a bet with over 10:1 pot odds?

When I called the turn, I thought I was behind, and thought I should fold the river if UTG+1 bet.

Thoughts?

Thanks!!
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-28-2006, 03:17 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I like flat calling here, and I probably don't fold the river either as you still have a decent hand. Him donking the with a gutshot doenst make as much sense as donking the turn here on his made straight, if you had a read it would be good.


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NWNewell
Old 08-28-2006, 04:06 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I remember his Pre-Flop stats being fair, but somewhat on the looser side. But nothing out of control. (something like ~40VIP & ~20PFR). It was near the beginning of my session and can't remember much more than that off the top of my head.

With his open raise and leading the flop, after I 3-bet. I gave him credit for at least pairing the board with a strong kicker (AQ, AK, AT, KJ). Or possibly making a lower two pair. I did't think he was rasing with a weak Jack (only giving him an openend straight draw on the turn). Maybe JJ. But I felt he would have a pair with Ace kicker a significant percentage of the time.

And I think you are right. While he may have a the the straight. I think there is a high chance he would have c/r me on the turn if he could beat me. So, even if I brick the river in this situation, with the 10:1 pot odds I've got to call a river bet.... I'm probably going to win more than 10% of the time and have +EV to call with my TopTwoPair.


What if he checks a brick on the river? We value bet the river, right?
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-28-2006, 04:31 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 I don't like the value bet here.


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NWNewell
Old 08-28-2006, 05:18 PM #5 (permalink)  
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So if he checks a rag... say a 6, we don't value bet the river?

What would he check the river with that our TopTwoPair can't beat? A 9 for the low straight, or trips? I would assume that he would be thinking that we don't have the Ace high straight since we didn't raise his turn bet. So, do you think he is checking for fear that we have the straight, do you?

You think he would check the river with an Ace high straight?

Care to elaborate on your concerns for the value bet? (please, forgive my ignorance)
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-28-2006, 06:05 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 It's not necessarily that you have him beat, but will he call a river bet here with a worse hand. I doubt he will, and you'll likely find that only a 9 will call, an ace will raise and most other hands will fold, since there is a guy allin and bluffing a side pot is retarded.


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NWNewell
Old 08-28-2006, 06:12 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I see.... I guess your concerns are valid.

As it turned out, the river did brick the 6. He checked and I checked behind, content to take down what was already in the pot.

He turns over JT for two pair, and I raked it in with top two. After seeing this I was a little peeved that I missed a bet on the river (although, on the turn I would have been happy with this outcome.... oh, how quickly our expectations change... lol).

I've been trying to value bet the river more, as I feel I check behind with position too often. So, that was one part of this hand that I wanted feedback on (along with the turn and play if the river was bet into me).

Thanks for the feedback!! It is greatly appreciated!
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Ripj0hngotti
Old 09-27-2006, 08:58 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Why are you raising with KQ(not suited)? That hand is weak.
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-27-2006, 09:06 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripj0hngotti
Why are you raising with KQ(not suited)? That hand is weak.
You obv have never played 10/20 6 max.


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Xianti
Old 09-27-2006, 09:10 PM #10 (permalink)  
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KY_Ace
Old 12-25-2006, 08:12 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Without the all-inner I'm value betting top 2, are you? I found the biggest adjustment I made switching from full ring to 6-max is learning how to value bet weaker hands. I would have no problem folding if I got check-raised however. Very few players will go for the check-raise steal here and I think I could still get payed by smaller a 2 pair often eneugh. In this situation I agree that the all-inner makes it a check.
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