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Hermann the Lombard
Old 09-17-2007, 05:36 AM     Post subject: Time and past time to leave? #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
Hermann the Lombard
PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: ITH Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with , . MP1 posts a blind of $0.05.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 (poster) checks, 1 fold, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) , , (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP3 folds, Hero...

Well, my first thought was to fold right there, do you agree? It's early in the session so I don't have a read, but he called the PFR, bet into me on the flop, called *that* raise, and now check-raises me. What could he have that I can beat? OTOH it's a big pot and I can see his cards for 2 big bets.

How about the flop, should I have raised (or even called) on that scary flop?
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sinky
Old 09-17-2007, 11:22 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Location: SCOTLAND
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sinky
He posted a blind in MP and then called a raise getting at least 6/1. So he could have pretty much anything. The question I am asking is, what hands donk that flop ? I think a T is more likely than a 9, so I would raise.

When you are checkraised on the turn there are 10.7BB in the pot and you will need to call another bet on the river so you are getting nearly 6/1 odds. You have to call. He will have a T or a badly played JJ,QQ,KK often enough to make it profitable.
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DrivingDog
Old 09-17-2007, 12:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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DrivingDog
I'll bet you 2 BB you're winning this hand more than 1/6 times. Call down please.

There's a lot of hands he might play strongly here. You're behind 9x, TT, and 87. You're ahead of KK, QQ, JJ, Tx, and a random goofy bluff. If you fold every time it's possible your behind, etc. etc.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 09-17-2007, 09:40 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Hermann the Lombard
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
I'll bet you 2 BB you're winning this hand more than 1/6 times. Call down please.
Say "pretty please"!

I called the turn and the river. Unfortunately Murphy was on duty and the villain had
:Td:
but that's why I didn't include the results with the OP, I know the analysis doesn't have to do with the outcome of this one instance. Only the grumbling does...
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DrivingDog
Old 09-17-2007, 10:49 PM #5 (permalink)  
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If that happens six times in a row i owe you 2BB. you take personal cheque?
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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