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A time for an extremely thin value bet?

  
 
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dsaxton
Old 06-10-2007, 12:17 PM     Post subject: A time for an extremely thin value bet? #1 (permalink)  
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dsaxton
Opponent is a lagg donk. He raises a bunch preflop, bluffs a lot, and overplays his hands (e.g., after calling my UTG raise in the BB with 4-4, he check-called on a T, 7, x flop, then check-raised a T on the turn and bet a river that completed a club draw from the flop). Given his playing style, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have A-K high beat here (he probably bets any pair on the river), and I don't think he likes to fold. Can I make the super thin value bet on this river?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K.
1 fold, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 3, 4, 7 (2 players)
MP bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) 5 (2 players)
MP bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.66 BB) 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero ?
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Stagemn
Old 06-10-2007, 05:48 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Stagemn
Just check it to him.

My expierence is they usually bet with ANY pair OOP or on draws at times. Too many random hands to be beat here with a str8 potential on the board. I can;t see him having a 6, but maybe a 3x or 7x. He probably has Ax or a 8 somewhere in his hand.
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bigspenda73
Old 06-10-2007, 05:53 PM #3 (permalink)  
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