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Are these leaks in my game?
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JJDylan
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02-21-2005, 06:07 PM
Post subject: Are these leaks in my game?
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
Posts: 211
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Ive been playing the .5/1 games at party for a few months now, and ive started to post some pretty regular profits, but ive noticed some trends in my game that may need to be fixed...i think i already know the answer to my question, but i wanted to see what everyone had to say about it...
With low/middle pocket pairs, i'll almost always see the turn after missing the flop as long as its only one small bet and i can be pretty sure that i'll win the hand if i hit my set on the turn.
and
After I raise preflop with AK, KQ, or even QJ and miss the flop, i'll still almost always bet the flop unless it happens to be something really 'scary'
Am i right in thinking that these are two habits i need to cut out of my game?
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Fnord
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02-21-2005, 06:18 PM
Post subject: Re: Are these leaks in my game?
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#2 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JJDylan
With low/middle pocket pairs, i'll almost always see the turn after missing the flop as long as its only one small bet and i can be pretty sure that i'll win the hand if i hit my set on the turn.
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This is a horrible leak unless the pot is way out of control (3-bet or capped multi-way)
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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with only 2 outs you're only gonna hit your set like once is 20 times or something bizarre like that....which means you need about 15:1 odds for implied odds....
i doubt many pots on the flop are that big
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Chicago_Kid
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: People let me tell you about my best friends...
Posts: 1,132
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IMHO, your big cards strategy is ok, as long as there are only a few callers, and if your table image makes these bets believeable. If you bet too many flops this way, and people are paying attention, you will lose this edge.
On the small pairs, I used to do this as well. However, my PT stats showed my small pairs as HUGE losers. After a little analysis, I found this was due to my playing small pairs out of position, and/or calling these pairs to the turn without trips. Now, if someone raises, I almost always muck. Then, if I don't hit trips on the flop, I muck. Yeah, its a pair, but with multiple players in the hand, you're usually a dog.
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"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"
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JJDylan
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
Posts: 211
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chicago_Kid
IMHO, your big cards strategy is ok, as long as there are only a few callers, and if your table image makes these bets believeable. If you bet too many flops this way, and people are paying attention, you will lose this edge.
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i dont have poker tracker yet, but from what ive noticed is that betting my missed over cards strong usually works out, i either hit on the turn/river or can get everyone to fold. ive been pretty good at knowing when and when not to do this so far. I'll definitley have to work on letting go of the pocket pairs on the flop though, its gonna be hard to kick that habit though :P
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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you have to consider your mathematical odds of hitting the turn in both situations.
with a pocket pair, you have odds of 22:1 against hitting a set on the turn. yes, twenty-two to one against. unless it is a family pot at a ten handed table, you MUST fold this. if you chase sets past the flop, you have a gigantic gaping hole in your game. if you don't believe me, try this experiment (i did it myself): every time you get dealt a pocket pair, fold it on the flop but watch whether you would have hit on the turn. make a hatchmark on a piece of paper for every miss. see how many hatchmarks you accumulate before you actually fold a winner. then count up how much money you would have flushed down the toilet if you had played all those losing hands. you will be shocked.
with two high cards in a raised pot, you may or may not have enough outs to continue to the turn. it depends on the nature of the flop. if the flop is highly coordinated (for example 6c 7c 8s or 5d 5s 2h), you may be drawing dead. if the flop is uncoordinated, but you only have one overcard to the board (for example, you have AJs and the board is Qd 8c 4h), then you are drawing to only 3 outs and generally have to fold.
if, however, you have two overcards to an uncoordinated flop, then you have 6 outs to hit top pair with a good kicker on the turn. assuming nobody has two pair or a set, you have 7:1 odds to take the lead on the turn. with two or more opponents in a raised pot, you are already getting 6:1 or better. if anybody calls your flop bet, you will automatically get 7:1 or better. if nobody calls you, of course, you win.
so, betting out in this spot is clearly correct. just be mindful of any raise behind you.
ChezJ
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