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tell me about your downswings

  
 
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wufwugy
Old 09-09-2006, 07:46 PM     Post subject: tell me about your downswings #1 (permalink)  
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 this thread should go in a general poker discussion forum, but we don't seem we have that here, yet since this is the main subforum i visit and my game is small stakes shorthanded limit im posting it here.

my game is better than ever, but my deck is colder than ever. im on a bad streak about 3 times worse and 3 times longer than i've ever had. it gets frustrating feeling like i'll just continue running similar to Negreanu in HSP.

anyways, please tell me about your bad runs, how long, how deep, what stakes, what you learned, and, if possible, what can be expected about swings. that would be helpful to me.
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euphoricism
Old 09-09-2006, 08:08 PM #2 (permalink)  
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This has been done to death.

50 bet swings in an hour or two are standard, 100 bet swings in a day arent unusual. 300 bet downswings aren't unheardof.
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wufwugy
Old 09-09-2006, 08:22 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 im sure it has been. can you link me to threads containing relevant info?

what about 600? 800? 200k breakeven streaks? is something like 400bb down very rare or happens regularly for somebody who plays 200k a year?

im already at the 400bb down point, i'd like to know if others think that's nothing because they've hit 800 down, twice, in one year, or if that's a lot and happens very rarely.
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Ltrain
Old 09-11-2006, 05:05 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Go back through the archives of the LHE Ring Forum, there has to be a downswing post repeated about every 4 months; it may be disguised as a "help me" or "stats check" post.

I will typically hit a 100 bb downswing once in a while as variance and had one 175bb downswing, but that was about as bad as it got. However, this is at about a 100K sample size over almost two years and I am sure there is more variance from the more regular players.

If you are hitting 200bb, which you have surpassed, you need to evaluate your game. It may be variance, but 400bb seems a bit much. Look at the hands you have played, re-read some conceptual books like SSHE or Theory of Poker, and drop down a level to regain some confidence. For example, if you combine variance with bad play (calling too much with the 2nd or 3rd best hand or continuing to fire against a calling station to get him to fold but he just keeps calling you down), SH limit will destroy you faster than FR.
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wufwugy
Old 09-14-2006, 03:40 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 thanks, LT

i've already gone over a handful of those threads, and will continue to do so. although, many of my inquiries are still unanswered, but that may just be due to a lack of desire to post from the most experienced players.

and im currently down 500bb. kinda why i wanted to get some info on the worst of the worst. this may just be a cooler that avid players experience a small handful of times over a lifetime.

play evaluation is something i'm continually doing, and my play has changed much positively from when i first made the leap 40+ days ago from 1/2 to 2/4. from what i gather, 500bb downswings are widely considered to be largely a product of bad play. i dont believe it (at least that they must be), now, and i guess all i can say is that i've gotten the short stick so many times in a row that it's insane.

like i stated in a different thread, i've been losing the large majority of the hands that are major winners, i've been missing far more draws than my share, i've even been getting quite a bit of opps massively overplaying their marginal hands, building a big pot, then sucking out.

for example: the games i play have blind offense and defense maybe once in every hundred times an LP raises or a blind reraises heads up. blind stealing and protecting just doesn't happen often enough in my games to ever put somebody on a steal or a defense. also, in these games a 3bet or cap on the flop is mainly indicative of a very strong hand. usually aces or or at least two pair. i've even had guys call down with top two pair just because i raised their donk on the flop. guess they magically put me on a set.

so here's one example of a type of thing that has been happening to me during this cooler a bit more than ever before... folded to me in the sb, i open raise with AK, bb reraises, i cap, bb calls. flop is A93, i bet, bb raises, i 3bet, bb caps, i call planning to just call down UI since the bb's line is most often indicative of having me beat, not always tho, so im hoping for the more seldom tie or win. turn is K, i check, bb bets, i raise, bb 3ets, i call and plan to call down UI and hoping to see a tie but wouldn't be surprised to see a set of nines or treys. river is a 9, i check, bb bets, i call, bb shows T9 for the win. as far as i can tell, the bb's line is over the top even for an uber TAG defending against an uber TAG. and since TAGs dont exist in my weak/loose games...

same type of thing has been happening where i have like a straight heads up and my opp caps the turn with nothing but a flush draw, and hits it of course.

and i cant forget about one of my most recent AA favorites. so hard to choose which one i like tho, since the majority of the time i have aces i lose, and usually to 44 or JJ or whatever. anyways, on the button i raise, two callers. flop is 983, two diamonds. checked to me, i bet, one caller. turn is 2, not a diamond, checked to me, i bet, get called. river is 2, not a diamond, donked to me, i call thinking that nothing about the board or my opp makes it +EV to lay down even though im expecting a loss. donkey shows J2 no diamonds and i muck.

i know those types of things happen, but for me it's been happening oft and densely with very very little relief.

makes me think of that one time (not during this cooler) i lost 100bb in 20 hands dealt (played like 9 of em). king flushes and ace sets and top straights and full houses against better hands. losing a bunch in a short period of time in huge pots can make 100bb disappear.

thanks for letting me vent.
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pokerfanatic
Old 09-14-2006, 01:59 PM #6 (permalink)  
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i don't think any one could beat my down over all... of course i wasn't exactly playing that well either... maybe eupho... we are about tied...

but eupho does have a point, on a day to day basis typical swings have been covered on this topic Short Handed limit i mean...
but i'll cover it again...

BR Management: no less then 500bb IMO

+/- on a given session: 20-50bb is expected however 50-100bb can and will happen...
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euphoricism
Old 09-14-2006, 03:04 PM #7 (permalink)  
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There is no reason to think that a 500bb drop isn't variance. It certainly could be. We're hesitant to say it, but it is in no way 'impossible'.
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pokerfanatic
Old 09-14-2006, 10:28 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
There is no reason to think that a 500bb drop isn't variance. It certainly could be. We're hesitant to say it, but it is in no way 'impossible'.
maybe i have seen a couple well known/respected 2p2ers go on a -1000bb swing before...

but when it hits the 500bb mark i have to question if in reality they really were playing solid poker...
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

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Ltrain
Old 09-14-2006, 10:29 PM #9 (permalink)  
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The examples cited are variance, pure and simple, but the additional problem with downswings is they taint your perception of your play. After getting overpairs cracked 3 times in a row, the time they win with call/ fold the flop, the reaction is , "NOW you fold, moron" even though winning in this way is an average type result with overpairs. Also, the one time in 6 you finally hit a draw, you SHOULD hit the draw in your mind, so it doesn't register. Steady play will win in the long run; I have had sessions where overpairs are cracked every time and major hands get beaten (ex. suck out flush over straight) but still came out a small winner because of steals, 1 or 2 opportune hands that did win big pots and your ordinary TP vs. MP or outkicking opponents.

I can't remember the link, but there was a table put together at one time that listed the % of times you should win with certain holdings at showdown (can be determined using PT). This is from memory so it may be off, but it may give you a chance to compare your downswing stats to determine if indeed you have a higher percentage of good hands getting beaten or if you are taking hands too far.

HAND % of TIME WINNING AT SHOWDOWN
Royal/ SF/4 of a Kind Don't remember but shouldn't lose
Full House 90%
Flush & Straight 80%
Three of a kind 75%
Two Pair 60%
One Pair 40%
High Card 15%

There was also a table that had the % of time you could expect certain hands, but I can't remember the %'s.

Hope this helps.
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
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wufwugy
Old 09-15-2006, 02:53 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
There is no reason to think that a 500bb drop isn't variance. It certainly could be. We're hesitant to say it, but it is in no way 'impossible'.
maybe i have seen a couple well known/respected 2p2ers go on a -1000bb swing before...

but when it hits the 500bb mark i have to question if in reality they really were playing solid poker...
they play limit? you got a link?
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wufwugy
Old 09-15-2006, 02:59 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ltrain
HAND % of TIME WINNING AT SHOWDOWN
Royal/ SF/4 of a Kind Don't remember but shouldn't lose
Full House 90%
Flush & Straight 80%
Three of a kind 75%
Two Pair 60%
One Pair 40%
High Card 15%

There was also a table that had the % of time you could expect certain hands, but I can't remember the %'s.
that table wont be accurate without factoring in amount of hands to showdown. pocket aces will win 80% of the time heads up, but around 40% 5handed. or something close.
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pokerfanatic
Old 09-15-2006, 03:40 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
There is no reason to think that a 500bb drop isn't variance. It certainly could be. We're hesitant to say it, but it is in no way 'impossible'.
maybe i have seen a couple well known/respected 2p2ers go on a -1000bb swing before...

but when it hits the 500bb mark i have to question if in reality they really were playing solid poker...
they play limit? you got a link?
{edited by myself}

yea they played limit...... not sure why i would be talking about PL or NL in a limit topic but it's all good...

try doing a search, all the major boards have it including this one, it's the 2nd link from the left called "Forum Search" it would help out a lot in fast tracking though the 100s of posts we have here...
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

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wufwugy
Old 09-15-2006, 10:01 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
There is no reason to think that a 500bb drop isn't variance. It certainly could be. We're hesitant to say it, but it is in no way 'impossible'.
maybe i have seen a couple well known/respected 2p2ers go on a -1000bb swing before...

but when it hits the 500bb mark i have to question if in reality they really were playing solid poker...
they play limit? you got a link?
{edited by myself}

yea they played limit...... not sure why i would be talking about PL or NL in a limit topic but it's all good...

try doing a search, all the major boards have it including this one, it's the 2nd link from the left called "Forum Search" it would help out a lot in fast tracking though the 100s of posts we have here...
people refer to NL and PL in LHE and vise versa all the time.

and how am i supposed to be able to find out about what is probably an obsucure thread in which there is mention of a 1000bb downswing that may have been quite a while back on a site that gets much traffic?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/dosearch.php is why i asked for specification.
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pokerfanatic
Old 09-15-2006, 11:33 PM #14 (permalink)  
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umm ok... i'm sure u'll find a few threads i'm talking about, happy hunting...
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
 
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wufwugy
Old 09-16-2006, 12:18 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 no luck finding anything about 1000 bb downswings.
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