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dsaxton
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09-17-2007, 06:51 PM
Post subject: Super thin value bet.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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No read, but he's probably an idiot. Opinions on this turn and river?
PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 , K.
UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.
Flop: (3.33 SB) Q , A, Q (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks.
Turn: (1.66 BB) K (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, Button folds.
River: (3.66 BB) A (2 players)
Hero bets
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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The river bet probably accomplishes nothing here. He's either raising with a better hand, folding his draw or splitting the pot with you anyway if he's holding a king. I'd c/c.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
He's either raising with a better hand, calling with his draw
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Most draws don't fold at $3/$6 limit on Pokerstars.
Even if a bet accomplishes little, how is check-calling better?
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
He's either raising with a better hand, calling with his draw
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Most draws don't fold at $3/$6 limit on Pokerstars.
Even if a bet accomplishes little, how is check-calling better? |
Folding with his *busted* draw to your bet. I'm talking about the river bet here.
The check-call is in case he's bluffing or has a K and thinking he's got you beat. Seriously, what will he call with here that you beat? Any pocket pair jacks or lower is now discounted and worthless.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Most draws don't fold at $3/$6 limit on Pokerstars.
Even if a bet accomplishes little, how is check-calling better?
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If this is the case, then NOBODY is folding to your river bet. Most of the reason for betting here is to get a better hand/same hand to fold. But, as you stated, this ain't gonna happen. I check-call cos I think I'm losing to an ace.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
He's either raising with a better hand, calling with his draw
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Most draws don't fold at $3/$6 limit on Pokerstars.
Even if a bet accomplishes little, how is check-calling better? |
Folding with his *busted* draw to your bet. I'm talking about the river bet here.
The check-call is in case he's bluffing or has a K and thinking he's got you beat. Seriously, what will he call with here that you beat? Any pocket pair jacks or lower is now discounted and worthless. |
Clearly I'm hoping he calls when playing the board. I think it's a question of whether or not he bluffs when checked to more often than he calls a bet when playing the board (and how often he is in fact playing the board). Obviously this is unanswerable, but I typically assume that these players will err on the side of being too passive rather than too aggressive.
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Clearly I'm hoping he calls when playing the board. I think it's a question of whether or not he bluffs when checked to more often than he calls a bet when playing the board (and how often he is in fact playing the board).
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The way this played out, there's all kinds of chances you're up against an Ace with weak kicker or getting slowplayed goofily, with his turn call hoping to suck in the Button. That's an extremely scary 4-card board so of course any aggression on his part before the river could cause folds all round, or at least that's what many SSHE-in-love-with-slowplaying players think.
Checking the river could save a bet, either because he checks behind with a weak Ace or because he has you beat large anyway and would have raised your bet.
Say there's a 10% chance he's playing the board and will call and lose the extra bet, a 20% chance he has you beat and will call, a 20% chance he has you beat and will raise (which you will have to call), a 25% chance he has nothing and will fold to a bet, a 20% chance he's holding one king and you split and a 5% chance he's holding a king and folds, here's your ev:
(.10 * 1) + (.20 * -1) + (.20 * -2) + (.25 * 0) + (.20 * 0.5) + (.05 * 3.66) = SPEW
SPEW aka -0.217BB
That's a pretty conservative estimate too.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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I would bet this in my game as well.
Fuckers called me down both times I took shots at them this weekend.
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Clearly I'm hoping he calls when playing the board.
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Also, this really only works against Kevin McBride.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I think a typical opponent is paranoid enough that a b/f here is probably ok.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
I think a typical opponent is paranoid enough that a b/f here is probably ok.
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I'd have to agree with that one... lol i have seen people call playing the board before at 3/6 only because they put me on trying to buy the pot with the lack of action and the huge show of weakness by my opponents. i think the Q raises you on the turn, the Ace probably bets the flop IMO... i don't mind betting the river and folding to the raise, if he does raise i would have to figure him for something like Ace rag that he was worried bout his kicker on the flop...
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