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Suited connector in a raising war.

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spino1i

02-12-2006, 05:53 AM Post subject: Suited connector in a raising war.

#1 (permalink)

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Live 6/12 Limit at Casino San Pablo, full ring game. Hero holds 54 of clubs and limps in from the small blind after 3 others call. Flop comes Q62, the 6 and 2 are both clubs, Q is a diamond. Hero bets out (good? bad?) villain #1 raises and villain #2 3-bets. Villains are for the most part unknown, though I would call neither of them wild players. Action back to me. Hero?

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silverfist

02-12-2006, 04:29 PM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

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Posts: 341

I like the bet on the flop. You've got a gutshot and a flush draw, so that's 12 outs to the (near) nuts (the 3d would give a flush redraw) - about half of any money going in right now is yours, so you should treat your hand almost like a monster and build the pot without losing customers. If you're in a loose game, and think you'll get two or more callers, by all means bet here, (though without the gutshot, it's probably better to remain passive with a good draw and no overs, since your PE would be about 35%). Also, you want to build the pot to tie people to it, so you can milk them if you hit your hand.

As for the reraise, you want to at least call here. You have almost 50% pot equity. I'd actually suggest capping. You don't want to miss the turn card and get stuck in the middle of a raising war with these guys with one card to come. The cap is good mathematically (1/2 of the money is yours), and might scare them into not going into psycho-raise mode on the turn. It might cause the original raiser to fold, which would be bad, but would at least stop a war if you miss the turn.

So, I'd suggest capping here. On the turn, you're in fist position, which sucks if you miss. You might even consider a blocking bet to head off a new war (if you miss), and set yourself up for a (probably doomed, but still +EV) bluff on the river if he's overplaying a draw himself and you whiff. Probably though, I'd just check the turn and hope the last position player doesn't raise again.

Hope that helps

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spino1i

02-12-2006, 06:05 PM

#3 (permalink)

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What im worried about here, is that someone is drawing to a higher club draw than me..

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silverfist

02-12-2006, 08:36 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

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They're almost certainly not, though. Every once in forever, you'll get outflushed, but it's something only worth really considering after there's nothing else out there and someone just capped the turn or reraised you on the river. It's basically the same scenario with higher sets; they virtually never happen, so they're not worth worrying about until nothing else makes sense. The only flush hand that would be reraising like that is one with the Qc. Look at it this way:

There are 1081 possible hands your opponents could have.
There are only 9 unaccounted-for clubs left (minus yours and the two on the board), so...
There are only 36 possible hands with two clubs.

Plus, if you're out-flush-drawn, you are less likely to hit the flush and get creamed, since there are now only 7 flush outs left.

So, I wouldn't even worry about a higher flush, until someone three-bets the turn or river and there's nothing else out there. Just cap here. The Qc isn't going to go on with a raising war on the turn, either, so if you are outflushed, that's one less thing to worry about.

If anything, the action here means they don't have a flush draw and are raising to protect their hands from drawers like you

. Anyone with a pair of queens is going to be desperate to protect them. Without the Qc or maybe the Ac or Kc, they wouldn't raise the flop, since they'd have nothing to protect. They certainly wouldn't three-bet without the Qc.

Oh yeah, and you have a straight flush draw

. If you hit the 3c, the Axc is going to cap you on every street. Yummy.

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azureXsmurF

02-12-2006, 08:45 PM

#5 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2005

Location: Delaware, USA

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Quote:

Originally Posted by silverfist

There are 1081 possible hands your opponents could have.
There are only 9 unaccounted-for clubs left (minus yours and the two on the board), so...
There are only 36 possible hands with two clubs.

Isn't the correct number here 72 since each possible hand could be dealt two ways? (with either card first)

silverfist

02-12-2006, 08:59 PM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 341

Quote:

Originally Posted by azureXsmurF

Quote:

Originally Posted by silverfist

There are 1081 possible hands your opponents could have.
There are only 9 unaccounted-for clubs left (minus yours and the two on the board), so...
There are only 36 possible hands with two clubs.

Isn't the correct number here 72 since each possible hand could be dealt two ways? (with either card first)

I accounted for that. If you count the order of the cards, then there are 2162 possible hands. You want 9 choose 2, which is:

9!
7!2!

=36

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Xanadu

02-12-2006, 09:05 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by azureXsmurF

Quote:

Originally Posted by silverfist

There are 1081 possible hands your opponents could have.
There are only 9 unaccounted-for clubs left (minus yours and the two on the board), so...
There are only 36 possible hands with two clubs.

Isn't the correct number here 72 since each possible hand could be dealt two ways? (with either card first)

Silverfist is correct. It is true that there are 72 permutations that have 2 clubs, but only 36 of them are unique with 2 ways for them to be dealt. Since the 1081 represents unique possible hands (combinations rather than permutations), 36 is the correct # to use.

Xanadu

02-12-2006, 11:13 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Although the chances of a single person having 2 club preflop with only 9 clubs out is rather small, only about 3.3%, the chances of someone still in the hand having a higher flush draw is not remote enough to ignore. Considering that we see 4 of the 5 lowest clubs, it is very likely that anyone who was dealt 2 clubs preflop would choose to play the hand. At a low stakes game, we can expect as many as 75% of the 2 club hands to have played. This of course depends on the people at the table, but lets use the 75% and do a calculation. If we throw out 1/4 of the 2 club hands, that leaves 27 hands that will be played if dealt preflop that will beat us if we draw our flush. There is a 97.5% chance that each player will not be dealt one of these 27 hands. We multiply that by 9 other players, and get about an 80% chance that no other club draw is out there. This of course means that 1 in 5 times with the lowest flush draw we will be beat.

If we think these are accurate assumptions for the current hand, then all the flush outs must be discounted by 20%. So instead of 9 outs to the flush, it is a bit over 7. The hand is probably worth about 10 outs, or one out better than a lone nut flush draw. The difference is that 10 outs gives 38.5% pot equity while 12 outs is a 45% equity. This is not as crucial a difference as far as affecting our choice of action as it is when we do not have the straight draw. Without the straight draw, 7 outs gives us a little under 28% equity, where a nut flush draw for 9 outs is 35%. This difference is more critical because with only 7 outs, a bet or raise is only for value with 3 others in the pot, while a 9 out draw can be bet for value if we expect only 2 callers.

With higher cards of the suit on board, the small flush draw gains a little value because the chances people will play the suited hand preflop decrease (people will often play any suited A, but not any suited 4). And of course the higher your hand, the fewer possible hands can beat it. If you have the K high flush draw, and the A is out, only 8 possible hands draw to the higher flush. Even if everyone at the table will play every suited A, there is only a 6.5% chance an A high draw is out against you.

In comparison to set over set, even with bottom set on the flop, there are only 6 possible hands to make a higher set. You will be beat by a higher set on the flop full ring less than 1 time in 20.

Basically, you can mostly ignore the chances of a higher flush draw when you have the second or third nut draw, but once your hand gets much lower than that it is often a signigicant difference that can change the correct play. With only a very small flush draw, you need one more person in the pot to bet/raise for value then you do with the nut flush draw in full ring play.

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Suited connector in a raising war.

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