|
euphoricism
|
08-22-2006, 08:11 PM
Post subject: A standard turn raise that most people don't make
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is CO with J , A.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.
Flop: (10.50 SB) 6, 8 , 3 (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.
Turn: (5.25 BB) 9 (5 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 calls.
River: (11.25 BB) 7 (3 players)
BB bets, MP3 raises, Hero folds, BB calls.
Final Pot: 15.25 BB
Thoughts on the turn raise?
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
no 3bet preflop due to nittyness of MPs range..
|
|
|
|
elipsesjeff
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
|
|
Not standard turn raise, and I would still 3bet preflop here as its easier to play postflop. You have zero folding equity and your raise isn't for value. I call here hoping to hit a Jack or heart on the river.
|
Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
Raise is purely for value. I'm getting 7.5:1 on atleast a 14 outter..
edit: can't count.
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
Make that a 12 outter
|
|
|
|
elipsesjeff
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
|
|
but you're only getting 3:1 on your raise as there are only 2 other people in the pot besides you. Even if you have 12 outs, thats 12/46, and you need almost 4:1 here to do so. Even an OESFD here you shouldn't raise if its not HU.
|
Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
If I had called, it would be 7:1. The raise is 7:2, assuming both call its then 9:2, or 4.5:1. Factor in implied odds..
|
|
|
|
strawman
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 207
|
|
I think the raise is fine if you don't expect villians to 3-Bet here since you are unlikely to get any action on the river if a heart hits.
|
|
|
|
elipsesjeff
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
|
|
You cant measure the value of the raise with odds of the size of the pot.
You determine there are 3 people in the pot left so your raise can get you no better than 3-1, no matter how you look at it.
Not trying to be an ass, but I'd suggest you look at SSH and calculating odds again.
|
Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
This hand is almost straight out of hepfap.
|
|
|
|
elipsesjeff
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by euphoricism
This hand is almost straight out of hepfap.
|
quote?
|
Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
|
|
arkitekton
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
|
|
I don't like the preflop cold call. In all but the loosest games it's a money loser--you're around the bottom of your opponent's range, which is probably fairly high since it wasn't a steal raise.
As for the rest of the hand, unless you expect both opponents to fold to your raise a decent percentage of the time, or call and then fold to a river bet, betting here is -EV. As jeff pointed out, you only get odds on your current bet versus your opponents actions this round--you don't get to figure in past events UNLESS you're factoring in your fold equity.
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
If instead the hand went ...
Turn:
Villain 1 bets, Villain 2 raises. Pot is 9bb. Hero...?
Hero would be making a huge mistake to fold getting 4.5:1.
How is it any different than if I am the one that raises and puts in 2bb to win 9bb. We're still better than 4.5:1 to hit, aren't we? On the raise I'm 7.5:2, or 3.75:1 but I fully expect both opponents to call making it 9.5:2 or 4.75:1. BUT, even when only one opponent calls, giving me 8.5:2 on the raise, or 4.25:1 (still goot), I've increased my equity in the pot to the point where i'm about 50/50 to win the hand.
I certainly see nothing -EV about this.
vs 10% and 15% range
Code:
Board: 6h 8c 3s 9h
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.5376 % 33.03% 02.51% { AhJh }
Hand 2: 36.4620 % 34.09% 02.37% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 28.0004 % 26.45% 01.55% { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Vs 10% range
Code:
Board: 6h 8c 3s 9h
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.5523 % 45.94% 03.62% { AhJh }
Hand 2: 50.4477 % 46.83% 03.62% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
vs random
Code:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.4530 % 53.11% 00.35% { AhJh }
Hand 2: 46.5470 % 46.20% 00.35% { random }
|
|
|
|
Nehmer
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by euphoricism
If instead the hand went ...
Turn:
Villain 1 bets, Villain 2 raises. Pot is 9bb. Hero...?
Hero would be making a huge mistake to fold getting 4.5:1.
How is it any different than if I am the one that raises and puts in 2bb to win 9bb. We're still better than 4.5:1 to hit, aren't we? On the raise I'm 7.5:2, or 3.75:1 but I fully expect both opponents to call making it 9.5:2 or 4.75:1.
|
I think you seriously have a misunderstanding of the difference between pot odds and equity. Yes you would have to call if it was bet and raised before it got to you on the turn. Pot odds tell you that and I think you understand that. To determine the equity of the raise though, you have to look at two things. Folding Equity and the expected value of the bet you are putting in on the raise. In this hand you have almost zero folding equity with the turn raise. For the value of just the last bet you are putting in, the size of the pot does not matter. You are putting in that bet in order to win 2 bets(the last bets each opponent puts in). Since you will win this about 26% of the time, you are -EV on the raise. Yes, you have the right pot odds to put in 2 bets on the turn, but you have better odds just putting in the one bet.
The only times that being in a big pot effects your decision to raise is if you have fold equity or if it's on the flop and you are raising with position to get a free river.
|
|
|
|
Nehmer
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by euphoricism
BUT, even when only one opponent calls, giving me 8.5:2 on the raise, or 4.25:1 (still goot), I've increased my equity in the pot to the point where i'm about 50/50 to win the hand.
|
Have you? If you chase out the guy with the worse hand and the guy with the better hand stays in are you more likely to win this hand at all? Is the only way you determined 50/50 because you would then be heads up? Getting somebody with KQ to fold doesn't increase your chances of winning one bit if the other guy has A9.
|
|
|
|
Xanadu
|
|
Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
|
|
The pot size only affects your value from calling and your fold equity. Any value bet or value raise has nothing to do with the pot size, but only with how many people call the bet or raise. Since only 2 can call your turn raise, you will get at most 2:1 on your bet, and so must have a better than 2:1 expectation of winning the hand. With virtually no fold equity, and much less than a 2:1 expectation to win, this is clearly a -EV play (and not even close). It is possible that against strong and tight players there may be spots where you can get enough fold equity to justify this raise, but I doubt it.
|
|
|
|
Harry
|
|
Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
|
|
A 12 outter is 26% to hit after the turn, and 3-way you have equity of 33%, so this is -EV. If this was 4 way you would have the equity to pump, with 26% to win and 25% equity, assuming all your outs are good.
|
|
PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
|
|
arkitekton
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
|
|
Just to clarity, when you give hands such as KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo, do you expect a player holding them to have called the flop and turn?
|
|
|
|
gop2004
|
|
08-24-2006, 10:53 PM
Post subject: you guys are making my head explode!
|
#19 (permalink)
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: UB SNG
Posts: 92
|
|
And that's a good thing! I cannot begin to tell you all how much I appreciate the kind of analysis that goes on here. I can read it in a book all day long but here it really comes alive. I've improved so much just by following along with these hand history critiques. THANKS AGAIN!
That being said, I agree with Ark, cold call 2bets w/AJs pre flop even with position?
|
|
Those who wander are often actually lost.
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
Yup, theyre right. I dont know what I was thinking.
AJs is a definite 3bet preflop (even though villain was a super-tight-pre-flop-raiser) because it makes the hand so much easier to play. I don't really know why I didn't. Maybe because I couldn't get the guy heads up since someone already called. I can sorta see that as a reason, but still better to threebet.
It is true that this raise is -EV, but its not a *huge* mistake by any means. But, -EV is -EV and -EV is bad.
Quote:
|
That being said, I agree with Ark, cold call 2bets w/AJs pre flop even with position?
|
Is there a way to cold call 2bets w/AJs without being in position? If the cold call is a mistake, its a marginal mistake, but a 3bet would have been better.
|
|
|
|
|
|
08-25-2006, 03:39 AM
Post subject: Re: you guys are making my head explode!
|
#21 (permalink)
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by gop2004
And that's a good thing! I cannot begin to tell you all how much I appreciate the kind of analysis that goes on here. I can read it in a book all day long but here it really comes alive. I've improved so much just by following along with these hand history critiques. THANKS AGAIN!
That being said, I agree with Ark, cold call 2bets w/AJs pre flop even with position?
|
I got better by only thinking "WWFD"
"What Would Fnord Do?"
and he'd yell at me if I didn't play well so that's how I keep playing well
|
|
|
|
LimpinAintEZ
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: working myself up to FTR fullhouse status while not giving 1 solid piece of advice
Posts: 591
|
|
i think a play like this is good, however, it works much better in NL than limit - if you hit the river, your going to get paid off (most of the time in a limit game at 50c/$1), just know that your going to drop it anytime you miss cause bluffing in a limit game doesn't seem to have much point, in my experience. At the very least I think its' good for metagame reasons...When people see you raised the turn when you Caught a flush draw, that should get you more action/calls on your made hands - then again, I've been called down with K high playing limit, so the metagame might not really be a concern - I think getting tricky probably has no point here....So I think we are only getting extra money in the pot in case we hit - in that case, I like the play - If you pay 3BB (2BB on the turn raise and 1BB on river, assuming you just get called down)then the implied odds say you are getting 13.25 BB's (if they just call you on the river) in total....still think it's better in NL, but I think its fine here also...Anytime I get a chance to semibluff, I do it...Most of the time it gets people to slow down and if i miss, that is a good thing...
|
|
this space intentionally left blank
|
|
elipsesjeff
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
I got better by only thinking "WWFD"
"What Would Fnord Do?
|
Roffle. It is what i used to do as well, although he never coached me. In fact, there are still some marginal plays where I ask myself, WWFD.
|
Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
|
|
saywhat2
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 113
|
|
As far as preflop. I reraise here. Not becasue I think I have the best hand but because I want to try and take control of the hand and get the blinds out. As far as the raise on the turn. I love it!
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
Quote:
|
As far as the raise on the turn. I love it!
|
|
|
|
|
arkitekton
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
|
|
Quote:
|
As far as preflop. I reraise here. Not becasue I think I have the best hand but because I want to try and take control of the hand and get the blinds out. As far as the raise on the turn. I love it!
|
To say, "I want to try to take control of the hands..." sounds good, but I don't think it has a lot of meaning here. Since you're around the bottom of the raiser's likely range, you're unlikely to be able to indimidate him if he hits his hand, and you'll have a very hard time getting away from a dominated hand if the flop brings an Ace. Further, if he has KK or QQ and an Ace flops, he should be able to fold fairly cheaply.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AJs is probably the best hand to cold call with.
|
|
|
|
elipsesjeff
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
AJs is probably the best hand to cold call with.
|
Aye, Cold calling AJs is not THAT bad in a FR game, if it was live in this fishy texture of a game I definately would do it. 2nd best hand to cold call with? KQs, after that the pocket pairs are a pretty easy cold call as well getting 5-1.
|
Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
JTs?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by euphoricism
JTs?
|
fold preflop to a raise
|
|
|
|
Nehmer
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by euphoricism
JTs?
|
fold preflop to a raise |
I'll cold call preflop with JTs if a few other bad players have already called. I'll also 3-bet sometimes if a player I want to isolate raised from middle or late position with nobody else in the pot. I think always folding preflop to a raise is probably a small mistake.
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
... or I *expect* a few callers
|
|
|
|
LimpinAintEZ
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: working myself up to FTR fullhouse status while not giving 1 solid piece of advice
Posts: 591
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by arkitekton
Quote:
|
As far as preflop. I reraise here. Not becasue I think I have the best hand but because I want to try and take control of the hand and get the blinds out. As far as the raise on the turn. I love it!
|
To say, "I want to try to take control of the hands..." sounds good, but I don't think it has a lot of meaning here. Since you're around the bottom of the raiser's likely range, you're unlikely to be able to indimidate him if he hits his hand, and you'll have a very hard time getting away from a dominated hand if the flop brings an Ace. Further, if he has KK or QQ and an Ace flops, he should be able to fold fairly cheaply. |
were giving too much credit to what their raising range is - If you have stats saying hes a 15/6 nit or so, then we can keep the range that limited, but players at this level are Raising anything with a K, and a hand like Q10 suited is a monster in their eyes...I think our AJs might very well be ahead of the hands that are raising us here...At least in my experience that is what i've seen - don't lose touch if your playing 10/20 limit and expect people to raise premium hands...QJs is a premium hand to a newbie, and even less for that matter -
|
|
this space intentionally left blank
|
|
elipsesjeff
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by LimpinAintEZ
don't lose touch if your playing 10/20 limit and expect people to raise premium hands...QJs is a premium hand to a newbie, and even less for that matter -
|
? I don't get the 10/20 statement, but QJs is a premium hand. It is the lowest suited broadway I would raise to isolate with even in the full ring game.
|
Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Nehmer
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by euphoricism
JTs?
|
fold preflop to a raise |
I'll cold call preflop with JTs if a few other bad players have already called. I'll also 3-bet sometimes if a player I want to isolate raised from middle or late position with nobody else in the pot. I think always folding preflop to a raise is probably a small mistake. |
depends on how many other callers and how tight the table is, of course
|
|
|
|
arkitekton
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
|
|
Quote:
|
were giving too much credit to what their raising range is - If you have stats saying hes a 15/6 nit or so, then we can keep the range that limited, but players at this level are Raising anything with a K, and a hand like Q10 suited is a monster in their eyes...I think our AJs might very well be ahead of the hands that are raising us here...At least in my experience that is what i've seen - don't lose touch if your playing 10/20 limit and expect people to raise premium hands...QJs is a premium hand to a newbie, and even less for that matter -
|
It's a good point, Limpin. Very player dependent. What would your take on their range be without reads, but in the context of around 10,000 hands at that site, where the cumulative VPIP was around 25%, and the PFR% was about 7?
|
|
|
|
NWNewell
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL
Posts: 283
|
|
I may be a little late on this discussion, and a bit off base now, but....
euphoricism,
I missing this a little on your Turn Raise.
YES, with the turn raise, you are still +EV. (4.5:1 Pot Odds vs ~4:1 drawing odds) EV = +.075BB
However, if you would have just called, you would have greater EV. (7:1 Pot Odds vs ~4:1) EV = +1.0BB.
All else being equal, your Raise is still postive EV for the hand. But it actaully lowered your positive EV by 0.25BB.
You could argue implied odds, free show down, and fold equity all day long on the river. But I don't think it is going to make up the 0.25BB you gave up with the raise. Especially when you think about the fact that you had the advantage of closing the action with a call, but now you open yourself up to the possibility of a re-raise.
(also, you probably have better implied odds on the river if you only call. if you hit with your re-raise, they are probably checking to you and a bet will probably only get one caller. But with a turn call, you will probably be able to raise the bettor or even both players for 2BB a peice)
Now, if there was at least one more person that called (MP1 or UTG) before you making the pot at least 4-way, I would definitly raise for value. And with the BB betting out into 4 players, he probably has a 9, so your raise doesn't have much fold equity against him even if everyone else folded.
PS With a board like that, hitting your jack could give someone a straight, and your either your A or J could be dominated/reverse-dominated with that many people in a raised pot. So, you definitely have no more than 12 effective outs, possibly a little less.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
