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Standard AK fold

  
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 12-12-2005, 08:24 AM     Post subject: Standard AK fold #1 (permalink)  
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Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, MP2 calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (20.33 SB) 9, 8, J (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero folds

Getting > 20:1
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-12-2005, 09:12 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Even 20:1 odds here are good enough to call, unfortunatly, and it could be as high as 25:1. Thats the point of getting those odds as any super long shot to win is good. You've got like 4 overcard outs and a runner non-diamond draw; even discounted you're >4% to win.

But, I wouldn't have capped prelfop either OOP with 4 callers with a hand that significantly loses value when more people are in the pot.


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Demiparadigm
Old 12-12-2005, 09:18 AM #3 (permalink)  
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AK is actually the only offsuit hand that doesn't lose equity multiway.

The main reason I folded here, is there are still a number of players left to act, so I could wind up paying a great deal more to see a turn card when I am possibly drawing dead.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-12-2005, 09:38 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
AK is actually the only offsuit hand that doesn't lose equity multiway.

The main reason I folded here, is there are still a number of players left to act, so I could wind up paying a great deal more to see a turn card when I am possibly drawing dead.
It's still really hard to protect your hand post flop in such a bloated pot. HEPFAP states to not raise AK out of the blinds with multiple limpers because of this same fact.


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Romulus141
Old 12-12-2005, 02:32 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Good fold. With five players, one of them is very likely to have one or two diamond cards. Not to mention, there is a straight possibility out there too. You're drawing dead if someone has two diamonds, and you're very unlikely to beat someone who flopped a straight. Against a flush draw, you're still behind.

Question. What kind of player was UTG+1? Since he merely called his way to the flop, but then led out with a bet, that leads me to believe that he's a loose-passive player who flopped something good. Did you use a read of this kind to also make that decision?
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-12-2005, 04:29 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Maybe you guys arent getting the concept of pot and implied odds. How big you think this pot will be by the river? as long as you are under 95% behind then you'll make money when you call according to pot odds alone. You'd be insane to not draw to anything here, even a 2 of diamonds has some hope.


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mike4066
Old 12-13-2005, 12:52 AM #7 (permalink)  
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How many 25-30 bet pots do you guys see in a session. This is going one of them!

I'd peel one for the turn.
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KoRnholio
Old 12-13-2005, 01:00 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 You're surely behind now, a non-diamond A or K may not even give you the lead, and you could be drawing completely dead already. Fold.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-13-2005, 01:44 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KoRnholio
You're surely behind now, a non-diamond A or K may not even give you the lead, and you could be drawing completely dead already. Fold.
UGH!!! Do you guys not understand???!?!?!?!?!?!

Of course you're behind, you only have to win here once in 25 times to make money. Its these very marginal plays that, when added up, comprise your winrate.


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Fnord
Old 12-13-2005, 01:46 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
But, I wouldn't have capped prelfop either OOP with 4 callers with a hand that significantly loses value when more people are in the pot.
Wrong.

As the pot goes multi-way:
Big pairs go up in value
Big suited cards go up in value as well
AK gains value
AQ retains (even slightly gains) value
AJ/KQ are playable
Other offsuit hands go to shit
Medium pairs have their go way up in value (dead money covers your poor effective odds, multiple chasers pay you off when you hit.)
44-22 meh (set over set and suck-out issues hurt, but you're still way ahead of the dead money)
Small suited cards are very profitable for 1 bet. 2 bets if you have position. Just don't go crazy.
Same for Ax suited.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-13-2005, 01:48 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
But, I wouldn't have capped prelfop either OOP with 4 callers with a hand that significantly loses value when more people are in the pot.
Wrong.
[/punked]


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Fnord
Old 12-13-2005, 01:54 AM #12 (permalink)  
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The issue with AK is that you will often have to see turn cards and pay off better hands, which can get expensive/swingy. However, you're clearly getting the best of it pre-flop and really should build a pot to make the chasing and pay-offs less of an issue.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Fnord
Old 12-13-2005, 01:58 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Even 20:1 odds here are good enough to call
His call doesn't close the action.

With opponents playing the top 40% of their hands:

458,317 games 5.157 secs 88,872 games/sec

Board: Jd 9d 8d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 03.6107 % 03.19% 00.42% { AcKs }
Hand 2: 24.1141 % 22.79% 01.33% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }
Hand 3: 24.0449 % 22.70% 01.34% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }
Hand 4: 24.1253 % 22.78% 01.34% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }
Hand 5: 24.1050 % 22.76% 01.35% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }


Then consider the reverse implied odds of drawing to a pair and facing the diamond re-draw, it's a pretty darn easy fold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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KoRnholio
Old 12-13-2005, 02:44 AM #14 (permalink)  
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 Thanks for the numbers there Fnord. I am still a noob with pokerstove and can't make pretty guesstimates like that.

Also consider that there's 2 people left to act after you on this very co-ordinated flop. That makes it a super-easy fold.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-13-2005, 04:15 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 Nobody seems to understand the concept of odds, seriously.
Fnord, your hand range is way too large for this field. Players with 40% of their hands is too large an estimate with this action preflop, it would be different if they all limped.

UTG limps, hes got PP, two broadways or even AXs or Kxs.

MP3 three bets you: He's got premium cards, AJo+, AJs+, 66+.

Button Cold Calls three: He's got Two pretty face cards, also probably suited and possibly a pocket pair.

BB is the only guy that actually has top 40% of his hands as he has a discount to call. Even then, Hes not playing unsuited crap cards.

Even assuming that you have a 3.6% favorite given the numbers you posted, the pot doesnt have to get much larger to make you good. Also, take into the metagame considerations of capping preflop but folding to one bet on the flop. IMO, this is not an 'easy' fold in no sense of the imagination.


Everyone here who thinks this is an easy fold should know its not.


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koolmoe
Old 12-13-2005, 05:24 AM #16 (permalink)  
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There are reasons to fold this flop, primarily because of the preflop aggression shown behind you.

However, the pot is huge, and you probably still have a chance to win. Calling - even if it's wrong - can't be wrong by much. I'm never folding this flop to UTG's bet, for metagame reasons if nothing else. You can always fold if the flop action gets heavy behind you.
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Fnord
Old 12-13-2005, 09:45 AM #17 (permalink)  
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I would expect a tighter range of hands to put you FURTHER behind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 12-13-2005, 10:18 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Jeff's range:

Board: 9d 8d Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 03.4210 % 02.85% 00.57% { AcKs }
Hand 2: 24.3123 % 23.13% 01.18% { TT-22, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 27.4231 % 26.47% 00.96% { 66+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 4: 22.8483 % 21.79% 01.06% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 5: 21.9954 % 21.01% 00.99% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o }




My range assumptions: ( a little tighter)


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 03.1755 % 02.45% 00.73% { AcKs }
Hand 2: 27.4300 % 25.87% 01.56% { TT-77, AJs-A8s, KJs-KTs, QTs+, JTs, AJo-ATo, QJo, JTo }
Hand 3: 31.5238 % 30.17% 01.35% { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 4: 17.1824 % 16.33% 00.85% { QQ-22, AJs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 5: 20.6883 % 19.39% 01.29% { QQ-22, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AJo+, KQo, QJo, JTo }



Add to the fact that the preflop 3 bettor is yet to act, and the preflop limper is now betting into the preflop raisers, make this a pretty clear fold in my opinion.

If the action had gone:
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, MP2 calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (20.33 SB) 9, 8, J (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets

and action had come back to me without a raise, then I would definitely call to see the turn.
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-13-2005, 11:07 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
I would expect a tighter range of hands to put you FURTHER behind.
touche


Anyway, Koolmoe said it best.

By saying clear fold, you make it sound like it was simple, when in fact its quite the contrary.


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Ayodeji13
Old 12-13-2005, 07:06 PM #20 (permalink)  

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Fold.

Implied Collusion > Demiparadigm (how many of your backdoor outs are dead?)


Edit: Realize i'm beating a dead horse. Sry about that, trying to post responses w/o reading what ppl wrote. part of my bootcamp
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