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SSHE - part 3, Postflop Concepts - COUNTING OUTS

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not2smart

11-01-2005, 01:20 PM Post subject: SSHE - part 3, Postflop Concepts - COUNTING OUTS

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OK. I just finished studying Miller's section on COUNTING OUTS and I have just a couple of questions:

1. The example given on page 100 estimates the 6 over cards as "somewhat less than half an out each." I have noticed that in most of the hand examples that Hilger gives in ITHE, he also values over cards at about half an out each. So, is this a reasonable/standard default? Or is it completely situation-dependent? For example, if your overcard is likely to complete a straight you may devalue it even more (KQ on a JT3 board)? Or does the fact that you already devalued it to 1/2 count this possibility in?

2. Hilger is really big on discounting/disregarding outs on "coordinated" boards:

Quote:

ADVANCED CONCEPT: Whenever the flop is two-suited (2 of one suit) you should discount a suited out against a lone opponent and probably disregard the out against several opponents... ITHE, pg 25

The question is this: you will have multiple opponents and a two-suited flop often. How much do you put into discounting/disregarding these suited outs to your various draws?

3.

Quote:

Cards that improve your hand but do not give you the nuts are "partial outs". - SSHE, pg. 99

Do you guys really apply this concept regularly when drawing to non-ace-high flushes? For example, if you have Tc9c and the flop is Ac6c2h... are you going to estimate that you have 7 or 8 outs to the flush instead of 9?

4. This question is about backdoor draws. Miller recommends assigning between 1.5 and 0.5 outs for backdoor draws, depending on the type. These values seem to factor in the ability to fold the turn if the first card doesn't hit. They also seem to factor in some implied bets being collected on the river when the draw comes in. But is the fact that the 4th street betting doubles factored into these values? What about the possibility of seeing 4th street for 1 bet but needing to pay 2 big bets to see the river?

Am I correct that each street is to be handled independently? That is... even if the turn card hits to help the backdoor draw.. I still must repeat the odds analysis to get the proper decision on whether to see the river?

So, you guys are comfortable with these assigned values for backdoor draws on the flop betting round?

5. This question deals with the idea that your opponent may have redraws on the river when you hit your outs on the turn. Miller says,

Quote:

You should play hands that are very vulnerable to redraws cautiously.

This makes much good sense, but the book offers no help in determining what "cautiously" means. Let me throw up a scenario for your commentary: You have KcQs and the flop is Jd9d2h. Obviously, if you hit your draw on the turn, someone with two diamonds has a solid redraw. Can someone explain, in detail, how this fact affects their decision on the flop/turn? Thanks.

6. RELATIVE POSITION. The closer you are to closing the action, the better for you. The possibility of raises behind you sometimes requires you to fold some weaker draws that are otherwise getting proper odds. The book says to not be so concerned about this if your draw is at least 4 outs. That seems kind of liberal doesn't it? Do you guys not put much thought into this concept? Thanks again.

later.

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euphoricism

11-01-2005, 03:54 PM

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Yowch dude, newbies aren't supposed to make us think!

Hmm.. These are tough to answer fully.

In brief
Yes, we will/do use and count partial outs.

Quote:

The question is this: you will have multiple opponents and a two-suited flop often. How much do you put into discounting/disregarding these suited outs to your various draws?

Often, especially if you aren't drawing to a substantial hand. If I have, i dunno, ATo and two hearts flop, I have no peice, and my only draw is to top pair -- I'm generally done with the hand. No point in paying to draw to a second best hand.

On the other hand if you have AKo and A

flops, you would be silly to fold the flop. If say the T

comes, and you get raised or check/raised, you can consider folding depending on who is raising you.

Quote:

You have KcQs and the flop is Jd9d2h. Obviously, if you hit your draw on the turn, someone with two diamonds has a solid redraw.

This would be a fold. Even if you hit, youre vulnerable all over the place. Hit your K and youre vulnerable to not only the flush redraw but hands like KJ and QT which are likely to stick around. Drawing to top pair is, in general, a losing proposition.

Quote:

RELATIVE POSITION [...] That seems kind of liberal doesn't it? Do you guys not put much thought into this concept?

No, I don't put much thought into that.

Someone else can probably help you out better, but theres my .02. Anyone feel free to correct me where I'm wrong. This one was tough for me.

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koolmoe

11-01-2005, 05:44 PM Post subject: Re: SSHE - part 3, Postflop Concepts - COUNTING OUTS

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Quote:

Originally Posted by not2smart

1. The example given on page 100 estimates the 6 over cards as "somewhat less than half an out each." I have noticed that in most of the hand examples that Hilger gives in ITHE, he also values over cards at about half an out each. So, is this a reasonable/standard default? Or is it completely situation-dependent? For example, if your overcard is likely to complete a straight you may devalue it even more (KQ on a JT3 board)? Or does the fact that you already devalued it to 1/2 count this possibility in?

Completing other draws is part of it perhaps, but a bigger reason is reverse domination. Consider holding AK on a board holding J62 rainbow. Occasionally you will be in trouble against hands like KJ, A6s, etc.

Another aspect is that you may be drawing much thinner than is apparent to you, such as when your opponent has spiked a set or perhaps two pair.

For these reasons it is wise to discount outs when the field is large. When I am heads-up, I don't worry too much.

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koolmoe

11-01-2005, 06:05 PM Post subject: Re: SSHE - part 3, Postflop Concepts - COUNTING OUTS

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Quote:

Originally Posted by not2smart

Quote:

Cards that improve your hand but do not give you the nuts are "partial outs". - SSHE, pg. 99

I don't actually worry about it, though I probably should. Truth is, you will almost always have odds/pot equity to call the flop (if not raise) no matter if you count 7,8, or 9 outs for the flush.

If you complete a non-nut flush on the turn, though, you need to play it aggressively to get bets in while you are ahead since singletons of your suit may now have an opportunity to draw out on you.

Poker is freedom

koolmoe

11-01-2005, 06:27 PM Post subject: Re: SSHE - part 3, Postflop Concepts - COUNTING OUTS

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Quote:

Originally Posted by not2smart

4. This question is about backdoor draws. Miller recommends assigning between 1.5 and 0.5 outs for backdoor draws, depending on the type. These values seem to factor in the ability to fold the turn if the first card doesn't hit. They also seem to factor in some implied bets being collected on the river when the draw comes in. But is the fact that the 4th street betting doubles factored into these values? What about the possibility of seeing 4th street for 1 bet but needing to pay 2 big bets to see the river?

0.5-1.5 outs is simply based on the odds of completing your BD draw with two cards to come. In actuality, the odds of hitting a runner runner flush is a little more than 4%, which equates to almost 2 outs. For non-nut flushes, you should discount (like 1.5 for 2nd or 3rd nut and 1 for all others). Note that not all BD flush draws are created equal. You are much better off completing the draw when you hold two cards of the suit than when you hold one card of the suit.

For straights, it is really important that your three straight cards be reasonably connected. It is much easier to complete a BD straight with, say JT in your hand and a 9 on board than it would be with J9 in your hand and a 7 on board.

As far as the turn goes, realize that a BD draw will almost never have odds to see the turn on its own merit. You need to be drawing to something else, like overcards or trips/two pair, for the BD outs to have merit. The BD draw comes into play when you peel the turn card and miss your primary draw but add the 4-9 outs afforded by your BD draw.

Example:

AsKs on a Ts4h3d board. You are primarily drawing to your AK outs, but you also have a BD flush and longshot BD straigh draw.

Now, suppose somehow you knew you were behind to Tc9c. If the pot were only offering 6:1 odds, an expressed odds analysis would suggest a fold if you didn't hold two BD draws. However, the spades and broadway straight essentially give you about 8-9 outs, so it is an easy call.

If the turn is a something other than A, K, Q, J, or a spade, you would probably be wise to fold to your opponent's bet. But if it is a spade (even the 9s), Q, or J, you would now have odds (somewhere between 9 and 18 outs) to call a turn bet. As you can see, you are taking each street on its own merits.

None of this considers implied odds, which would enable you to make borderline calls when the expressed odds weren't there.

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koolmoe

11-01-2005, 06:29 PM Post subject: Re: SSHE - part 3, Postflop Concepts - COUNTING OUTS

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Quote:

Originally Posted by not2smart

So, you guys are comfortable with these assigned values for backdoor draws on the flop betting round?

You could read Weighing the Odds in Holdem Poker by King Yao if you are really interested in the calculations. I think I've posted the exact calc before.

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koolmoe

11-01-2005, 06:35 PM Post subject: Re: SSHE - part 3, Postflop Concepts - COUNTING OUTS

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Quote:

Originally Posted by not2smart

6. RELATIVE POSITION. The closer you are to closing the action, the better for you. The possibility of raises behind you sometimes requires you to fold some weaker draws that are otherwise getting proper odds. The book says to not be so concerned about this if your draw is at least 4 outs. That seems kind of liberal doesn't it? Do you guys not put much thought into this concept? Thanks again.

You need to know where the aggression is coming from.

I will fold with players to act behind me if those players are aggressive or have demonstrated aggression earlier in the hand.

Classic example is you limp a speculative hand (maybe a suited A) and it is raised behind you. You flop a weak draw and an EP player bets into you. You have a decision to make depending on the board and the raising range and aggression of the preflop raiser. In such cases you may be highly likely to face two or more bets before seeing the turn, so you might lean towards folding if the decision is close.

Poker is freedom

not2smart

11-01-2005, 07:36 PM

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Thank you very much. You guys really know your hold'em.

P.S. I really enjoyed the thread on c-betting.

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KoRnholio

11-02-2005, 12:18 AM Post subject: Re: SSHE - part 3, Postflop Concepts - COUNTING OUTS

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Quote:

Originally Posted by not2smart

OK. I just finished studying Miller's section on COUNTING OUTS and I have just a couple of questions:

1. The example given on page 100 estimates the 6 over cards as "somewhat less than half an out each." I have noticed that in most of the hand examples that Hilger gives in ITHE, he also values over cards at about half an out each.

...

The question is this: you will have multiple opponents and a two-suited flop often. How much do you put into discounting/disregarding these suited outs to your various draws?

3.

Quote:

Cards that improve your hand but do not give you the nuts are "partial outs". - SSHE, pg. 99

I can't recall if it was in SSHE or the advanced hold'em book (maybe it was in both) that mentioned overcard outs are worth more if they're kings or lower, since many people play any ace. It depends alot on the board though.

If you have say, JTo on a 247 board, I'd count both your overcards as nearly full outs, since it's unlikely you're reverse dominated by T7, J7 etc. But if the board is something like 78T and you have AQ, I'd be hesitant to count ace outs as worth much, since hands like A7-AT are quite common holdings of typical players.

As for counting flush outs, it's fairly rare that you'll be up against a higher flush draw (unless the river brings a 4th card of the same suit.. in which case you could be in big trouble with T9s). I count them as full outs.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

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