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SSH pg. 185-190

  
 
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LeFou
Old 05-13-2005, 06:47 PM     Post subject: SSH pg. 185-190 #1 (permalink)  
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I think this is the best thing in the new book -- at least for people with solid basics, and a desire to step up a notch. For those who don't have it, here's the synopsis.

You're on the button with a PP and four limpers. You raise. BB and the limpers call. Flop is


BB bets, first limper raises, and 2 more.

Case one: you hold :Ah: :Ac:
Case two: :Th: :Td:

The dicussion is about pot equity, how it changes after the flop and how your understanding of that change can improve your play.

Don't want to reproduce the text too much, but in "case one" he talks about plausible opps' holdings: flushdraw, gutshot, top pair, overcards. These combine for 15 outs, giving you about 50% pot equity.

With the tens, and the same opps, the overcards are drawing to beat you and you haven't got the backdoor flushdraw, making another 10 outs against you and only 25% pot equity.

The turn affects your pot equity with both hands, but MUCH more drastically with the tens. A safe card gives the tens about a 50/50 shot, while a bad one more or less kills them.

Sklansky concludes that you raise the aces on the flop, and wait for the turn with the tens. When you get that 50% against 3 or 4 opps, that's when you build the pot -- i.e. on the flop with aces, on the turn (assuming a safe card) with the tens.

I guess I'd like to hear more about this from youse guys.
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koolmoe
Old 05-13-2005, 07:01 PM #2 (permalink)  
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The keys to this scenario are the number of players and the size of the pot.

The pot is so big that no one will fold, and your hand will get much better or much worse on the turn. With so little pot equity, raising the flop only increases your variance.

The AA hand will still have fair pot equity on the turn, and it has a flush redraw. Raising has a lot of value, particularly against a large field.

With a smaller pot and one or two opponents, the situation actually reverses - you need to raise TT more than AAc.
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