Originally Posted by Ltrain

Call the turn and raise the river/ fold to 3 bet. Standard player at this level won't 3 bet you on the river without the goods and you don't want to make it too many bets with just the overpair.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I think its too fancy. I like euph's line sans the river raise.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Maybe, but how often do you think we are behind in this instance? Not as often as you think, and if he was Euph improved in many situations on the river.

You're playing against a bunch of 1/2 donks though you have to remember. QT plays this the same way all the time, and AQ would too thinking he has the best two pair hand. I can't ever see folding this hand anywhere.

Originally Posted by Ltrain

In this hand, given villian's preflop raise and continued bet/raises, I think we are more than likely behind. Yes it's 1/2 donks, but what average 1/2 donk, with no reads, continues to hammer the bet/raise button with something we beat? I am not a fan of folding overpairs either, but what hand bet/3bets the river against us that we beat looking at Villian's line? I don't see Q,T or A,Q three betting this river assuming no reads. Taking Euph's line, you are now committed after your river raise and shouldn't fold because of the turn betting, but a turn call/ river raise would not have same pot commitment. I don't think your average 1/2 donk preflop raises Q,T from MP3 and if they are that gutsy, why not checkraise the turn as a screwplay? If we don't feel comfortable folding the overpair than just call it down.

Originally Posted by arkitekton

When in doubt as to an opponent's holding, choose the most likely explanation. Most of the time, villain has better than a pair and doesn't want you to check behind him.