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Some situations I've been thinking about recently

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mdwav

02-23-2006, 08:42 PM Post subject: Some situations I've been thinking about recently

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: Ont, Canada

Posts: 59

1) You pfr and get HU (or 2 callers). The flop comes Axx. One of your opps leads at you. Assuming you don't have an ace, how do you play this? Obviously reads matter here; but what about an unknown? Recently I've seen a lot of ppl donk into this flop with no pair/draw, I guess hoping that the ace scares everyone. Also, how do you factor in who has bet? Eg if the first player leads out, he's leading into 2 players, hence I am more liable to believe he has something. On the other hand, if the first guy checked, in theory the 2nd player only has to get past you (the pfr). Finally, a 3rd factor I'd like to throw in: your hand. If you have something like KK/QQ, you're either way ahead-behind most of the time. But if you have say KQs (and no draw); a free card might really hurt you (it'd suck to have someone donk 72o at you and river a 2.

2) It's folded around to the SB, who auto-raises. What are you 3-betting? What are you calling with? For sake of argument; we'll say that if it's folded around to the SB, he/she'll auto-raise. Currently I am just calling with a fairly wide range of hands and seeing how they respond post-flop.

3) The not-quite a monster draw againt aggression. To illustrate, I'll just post a HH. Please comment on pre-flop as well.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A

, Q

.
UTG raises, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) J

, 5

, K

(4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 5

(3 players)
UTG bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (13.25 BB) A

(3 players)
UTG bets, MP2 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

On the flop, I thought about 3-betting (disguise draw, push equity), but I thought it was getting capped anyways (given that UTG was very agg post-flop with TPTK+). The turn card sucked-balls. The river was meh. So my questions are:
Pre-flop:
- fold (too tight?)/3-bet (to agg?) / cold call? BTW my read on UTG
was: AK/AQ, possibly 99+.
Post-flop:
- pump flop? By just calling, I think I'm tabling my hand, and no one is
leading at me unless a non-heart Ten comes off.
- dump turn? (possibly drawing dead?)
- I think river is a pretty easy fold.

" Don’t misunderstand. A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That’s just a fool.” - Reno

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Xanadu

02-23-2006, 09:30 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

1. Really depends on what you have. Since you raised and don't have an A, that would be something like 99-KK or a couple of high cards headed by a king most likely. Be more inclined to play with a pocket pair higher than middle pair. Be more inclined to play with middle pair top kicker/good kicker if it is maybe Js or higher. Play with a good draw. Tend to fold if you totally missed the flop (this should be fairly obvious). There is not enough money in the pot to fight for if you only have a draw to second pair.

This also depends a lot on your position. If the caller(s) was a blind, then you don't need to have as much. The situation you describe is pretty vague. Not knowing the positions of your opponents make this hard to say what to do. If you have a decent hand and can face one of your opponents with calling 2, then raising is a good option. If you are HU and have position, raising is a good option as you will get a much better idea of your opponent's holding if you raise than if you just call. Plus you may get a free card if you choose to take it. If you are OOP, you may want to just fold heads up because there isn't much money in the pot.

Also has a great deal to do with your opponents' tendencies. Do they like to lead out with nothing when an Ace hits? Do they never lead out first to act without top pair? Will they cold call with any A? Again there is no simple answer here.

2. I'll tend to call with hands as bad as T7o. You don't need much for the 3:1 odds to make a call correct heads up. Aside from that, it depends on the opponent. If you have an opponent that raises the same hands from the SB as UTG, then you want to call with only a limited amount of hands. If you have an opponent that almost always tries to steal your blind but will give it up on the flop or turn with nothing then you want to be very aggressive. I love sitting to the left of an aggressive/passive blind stealer. It usually goes like this:
preflop SB raises, BB reraises, SB calls
flop SB bets, BB raises, SB calls
turn SB checks, BB bets, SB folds.
This line works far more often than it should with any 2 cards.

3. I don't see the suits, so I am assuming you have a flush draw to go with the gutshot (I'd consider this a monster draw multi-way). Without the 4-flush this would be a clear fold.

Preflop, AQo with an early raiser is a raise/fold decision IMO. Either raise to get the blinds to fold or fold yourself. Raising has the added advantage of letting you know you are in trouble when tighter opponents cap it (realizing there are many people out there who love to cap it with 22 or because they feel like gambooling with 83o).

On the flop, with almost 50% equity, I want to 3-bet both to build the pot, and to get hands like A5 and possibly AJ to fold to buy some outs.

On the turn, the 5 is not such a bad card. Don't assume there is a boat out there unless there is a player in the hand that won't bet a paired board without a boat and that person has bet. The 5 counterfeits anyone with KJ if an A comes on the river and may have just given you 3 more outs to win with 2pair.

On the river, unless you have a good read, I can't lay down Aces up with 15 BB in the pot, even as an overcall. Even given the action, I think you will win 7% of the time here, and that's all you need.

dvda

02-23-2006, 09:32 PM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 76

I’m a novice so I’m interested to see how my opinion holds up against the more experienced players.

Pre Flop- I’ll 3 bet,

Post Flop- I’m raising all the way for value, I have a nut flush draw and a gut-shoot straight draw.

Turn- I would probably call, but would consider raising to a better idea of UTG’s hand.

River- I have TP and a good kicker, for +15.25 BB I have to call.

Xanadu

02-23-2006, 09:37 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

[quote="dvda"]
Turn- I would probably call, but would consider raising to a better idea of UTG’s hand.

quote]

Aside from this, everything you said makes perfect sense. You should not consider raising the turn at all because for that bet you use to get information on the turn you could just call down the river if you happen to spike an A. All a turn raise does is put another BB in the pot that you don't have odds for and expose you to a 3-bet that you will have to call.

poskid_1982

02-23-2006, 09:39 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: Midwest

Posts: 392

Quote:

Originally Posted by dvda

Pre Flop- I’ll 3 bet,

Good

Post Flop- I’m raising all the way for value, I have a nut flush draw and a gut-shoot straight draw.

Bad...You want overcallers here to maximize your expectation per bet. I'm definately wanting it to be capped but BB is more likely to tagalong if you simply call.

Turn- I would probably call, but would consider raising to a better idea of UTG’s hand.

No...raising is pointless as this hand is going to showdown since the pot is too large. You will not gain any folds and a 3 bet is going to kill your drawing odds with a paired board.

River- I have TP and a good kicker, for +15.25 BB I have to call.

I agree...laying down for one bet here is very tough. I dont like my chances of winning but folding seems bad in this big pot.

Superb play sir...I always call 20% of my stack off with a gutshot draw. Excuse me while I race for my wallet.

poskid_1982

02-23-2006, 09:45 PM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: Midwest

Posts: 392

Have to retract one thing I said...This river is not an auto-call. Your kicker isnt playing and this means that at most you are calling to split the pot. I can find a fold here. (in reality probably not but should after analysizing it)

PK

Superb play sir...I always call 20% of my stack off with a gutshot draw. Excuse me while I race for my wallet.

dvda

02-23-2006, 09:46 PM

#7 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 76

Thanks Xanadu, could you explain "a turn raise does is put another BB in the pot that you don't have odds for".

Xanadu

02-23-2006, 10:10 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

There are only 2 good reasons (other than deception) to bet or raise. One reason is to increase your pot equity by getting others to fold. The other reason is to get value from your bet. You get value from your bet when your chance of winning the pot is greater than your share of the current round of betting. For example, if you think you have a 40% chance of winning, and there are 2 others in the hand and you expect them both to call, a bet is for value because you put 33.3% of the money in but expect to win 40% of the time. On the turn here, I don't think you will win 33.3% of the time, so a bet or raise is not for value ... you don't have the odds because your chance of winning is not as big as the share of the pot you have to contribute. To say you don't have the odds for a bet or raise is the same as to say your bet has a negative expectation which means you will lose money in the long run. Fold equity (the extra chances you get at winning the pot when others fold{increasing your pot equity}) is unlikely to come into play here because the other 2 opponents will almost always both call your raise.

mdwav

02-24-2006, 07:33 PM

#9 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: Ont, Canada

Posts: 59

Quote:

Preflop, AQo with an early raiser is a raise/fold decision IMO

Agreed, except I'm sooted. Also, UTG would have limped AJ. The fact that I have AQ reduces the chance of him having QQ/AK/AA; hence I think I'm likely to be up against KK/JJ/TT quite often. Without the cold caller I think I usually fold here. Too tight?

Quote:

On the flop, with almost 50% equity, I want to 3-bet both to build the pot, and to get hands like A5 and possibly AJ to fold to buy some outs.

I ran some numbers; and given the flop action I don't think I have near 50% equity quite often. Against 2 pair (I'll assume if someone has 2 pair, it'll be specifically KJ as supposed to K5/J5 since neither of my 2 opponents are that fishy) I have better than 40% equity (still great 3-way); if one of them has AK and one has 55, my equity drops to about 34%(meh, still making money). Oddly enough if they BOTH have sets my equity increases to about 36%. Also, I think by just calling I increase the chance of one of them leading into me on the turn if I hit one of my outs (esp a non-heart ten). I think Fnord posted something in one of his stickies about not jamming draws b/c this line tends to kill your implied odds (scares the opps into checking even with a hand they would normally bet?).

Quote:

Don't assume there is a boat out there unless there is a player in the hand that won't bet a paired board without a boat and that person has bet.

Except for the fact that I'm drawing dead against a flopped set, the board pairing also kills the Kh as an out. It would be cool to have a royal draw and hit it against a boat though.

Quote:

On the river, unless you have a good read, I can't lay down Aces up with 15 BB in the pot, even as an overcall.

My mistake, I should have included reads. UTG is a pretty tight raiser. His most likely hand range (given the pre-flop + flop action) is AA/AK/ KK/JJ. As mentioned above, he would definitely have limped AJ UTG (maybe he raises AJs, but he will not go nuclear on that flop with AJ). Hence the river ace (to me) is meaningless, as I'm still losing to his 4 most likely hands. Also, as poskid_1982 mentioned, my kicker doesn't even play, so at best I'm chopping with any ace (but what ace other than AK/AA plays the flop that aggressively? The only other hand that would play the hand THAT aggressively would be the AhQh, but I have that).

BTW, Xanadu I appreciate your detailed posts, explaining the reasoning behind every bet/raise/call.

" Don’t misunderstand. A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That’s just a fool.” - Reno

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