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Small Blind v. Big Blind--What's the math here?

  
 
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arkitekton
Old 10-05-2006, 06:21 AM     Post subject: Small Blind v. Big Blind--What's the math here? #1 (permalink)  
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arkitekton
This is a pretty common situation when all fold to you in the small blind, you raise, and the loose aggressive player in the big blind calls then gets aggressive on the flop. My read was that he would raise my flop bet with a lot of hands, not necessarily made hands or even draws, fwiw, but I'd only been at the table for about fifteen hands.

How would you approach the math / EV with my reraise on the flop? It's fair to assume this player will call to the river with any made hand, but that he's not crazy enough to stick around if the turn doesn't help him and he only has high cards and no draw.

It occurred to me after the hand that to win 2.25 to 2.75 big bets I'm risking, overall, as many as 3.25 big bets. In other words, how do you all compute / think about this kind of thing?

Here's the hand:

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2, 2.
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 8, T, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets, BB folds.

Final Pot: 6 BB
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NWNewell
Old 10-06-2006, 11:32 AM #2 (permalink)  
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If you read truely is that he is going to raise your flop bet with just about anything, and would give up the turn if you maintain the lead and he doesn't make anything....

You're about a ~ 3:2 dog to win a showdown (on any paired, 2-flush board), says pokerstove.

You've got 4SB preflop. If you are expecting a raise on the flop, then you need to count your pot odds as 6SB:2SB = 3:1 for a call and 7-7.5Sb:3-3.5SB for a raise (incase he caps) = ~ 2-2.3:1.

However, you read that he will probably give up the turn if he doesn't make a hand. So, I would ad that into you decision too (since all these future actions are accounted for and weigh in on your single decision to call or re-raise the flop).

So, we are looking at the same pot odds when you win with a turn bet 2-2.3:1, and a little worse when you're turn bet is called and you find out you are beat (or atleast your read tells you you are).

Win ~40%: winning 7.25BB 40% = +2.9SB
Lose ~60%: loosing 5.75BB 60% = -3.4SB
Total EV = ~ -0.5SB

However, the 3:2 dog odds assumes your opponent gets to see all 5 cards. If he truely will give it up on the turn and won't draw to the river card, then you are more like a 11/9 dog which will give you an even money, or slightly better. I figured about +0.1SB.

But if you only call, you are going to show weakness and your oppoent may try another stabe on the turn, or call down with Ace high thinking you don't have, or hit, a pair. Which could get you bluffed out and give him a chance to draw to a winning river card. Your odds go back down to 3:2 dog and your pot odds will get worse if you continue past the turn.

I think raising is only slightly possitive EV, but significantly better than calling. I hate calling. I would fold way before I call.

Long story short... I like the flop raise. If he calls the turn, I'm inclined to c/f the river.

Not sure what I would do if he caps the flop, c/f the turn. Thoughts?

PS
I might get flamed for this, because it sounds kind of weak. But I don't hav too much of a problem with folding the flop either, especailly at the lower limits. Because this is pretty marginal, about +0.1SB or so, expecailly if you are wrong about him giving up on the turn, and the rake is usually a signifcant % at the lower limits, this could turn around into a negative EV pretty quick. Plus, at the lower limits, much more profitable situations come around pretty often and you don't have to try to push and squeeze marginal situations.

However, if this is a tougher game at higher limits (where the rake isn't as significant), or the game is shorthanded, then I don't think we should be folding as quckly.

And on that note... these situations are exactly what I need to work on, get familar with, and correctly work into my postflop play.... so, thanks! Good post/question. I hope to see more feed back from some the sharks!
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arkitekton
Old 10-09-2006, 01:25 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Plus, at the lower limits, much more profitable situations come around pretty often and you don't have to try to push and squeeze marginal situations.
NWN--fantastic post. Things got busy over the last couple of days so I haven't been able to give your response the time yet that it deserves, but just wanted to note for the moment that the above quote seems very valuable--pushing thin edges is often what small stakes isn't about
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Old 10-09-2006, 08:33 AM #4 (permalink)  
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it is my experience that 3 betting with basically crap at low stakes is -EV because folding the turn won't happen often enough, but you're going to get called down a lot of the time. You're basically bluffing against people who love to call with anything.
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arkitekton
Old 10-10-2006, 07:00 AM #5 (permalink)  
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arkitekton
Quote:
You're about a ~ 3:2 dog to win a showdown (on any paired, 2-flush board), says pokerstove.
NWN--before I deal with your post at more length, can we check this figure? Since villain will call my sb raise with any two (and presumably 3-bet preflop with AA-99), how am I a 3:2 dog? My own guess is that he's around 20% to have hit the flop directly, and another 18% to have caught a draw that he'll hit about 30% of the time. Since his cards are automatically overcards to my deuces, he's about 23% to hit those, which make him somewhere in the neighborhood of 49% to catch me by the river. And that doesn't count the occasional 2 I catch that doesn't improve him to a flush.


Quote:
it is my experience that 3 betting with basically crap at low stakes is -EV because folding the turn won't happen often enough, but you're going to get called down a lot of the time. You're basically bluffing against people who love to call with anything.
Heads up, a pocket pair on a paired board isn't crap--it's probably ahead.
btw, if I wasn't clear in my post, an essential part of my strategy with the three bet on the flop is buying river outs, and part of my question pertained to whether that made sense. As my thinking progresses here, it's pretty clear this particular villain won't be folding any kind of draw, but he is probably going to give up on the turn with only one overcard and no draw--so I may be really buying only about 3 outs, and not the 6 or more I was assuming. Any more thoughts on that?
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NWNewell
Old 10-10-2006, 12:41 PM     Post subject: Coin Flip preflop, Yes! But ~3:2 o the flop. #6 (permalink)  
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Well true, if you assume that he will play it straight forward and three bet with 3-bet with AA-99, AK, and KQ, then your are almost a coinflip preflop (and if fact, you are just under a coin flop even if you think he will call with those hands). You are correct.

The preflop raise was the correct move... no question. But what I was trying to address is the decision to continue to fight for the blind if your flop continuation bet is raised.

So, I was giving you the odds against that specfic flop (and it doesn't change much no mater what the cards are if the board is paired with two flush cards, as long as one of the cards isn't a 2). It doesn't change a twoo awful much regardless of the cards, or whether he will defend 30% or 70%, or if he would raise or only call the hands mentioned above. One extream (tight defender, high board) ~70/30 and on the other extream (loose defender, lower board) ~54/46. So, I have you the average odds, against an average blind defender which is pretty close to 60/40, or 3:2 dog.

And if you think about it, it does kind of make sense. Say he will call with about 40%-50% of his hands (and 3-bet preflop with AA-99, AK, & KQ). whe the flop comes with two flush cards and the board is paired, poker stove says you are 57-43 dog. He could have caught a peice with most hands. He could have an over pair, he could have picked up a flush draw, straight draw, hit a pair, hit trips, and still has two cards two come with at least 6 hours. You are drawing slim. Even if he missed, he probably still has a lot of outs. And I believe the difference from about 50/50 preflop to 60/40 post flop has a lot to do with your odds of catching a two on the flop.

So, 57-43 might be a little closer average. But I wouldn't want to push and even money play. And if he is a tigher defender or not as tricky as you think, then you are in worse shape than 57-43. So, I gave it a slightly concervative approximation of 3:2 dog.

If this were a straight forward drawing odds comparison, I wouldn't worry as much about being a little concervative. But when you are making trickier plays based on reads and gut feels, I think their is a larger chance of error, so I add it in to make up for some error in judgement. (at least for me because I don't think my judgement in these situations is all that great.

So, what I was trying doing was compare your chances to win with his starting hand range and that board to the pot size verses your required cost for this line (flop 3-bet and turn bet) to try to win the pot.

All these win percentage odds were generated by PokerStove by manipulating the preflop calling range and different flush/paired board combos. So, if it is wrong, I am not smart enough (or energetic enough) to do all the math and proof it.


But again, I still think that if the game is otherwise fairly profitable, I would pass on this move unless you have a great read on the guy.

There are too many variations in tendencies that could swing this EV one way or the other. Will he look you up with 77 (lowering your EV) or draw to an A9 for flush and look you up for one more bet with Ace high on the river because he thinks you are trying to steal (increasing your EV). If you give up on the river, will he try to bluff you out, or bet his weak pair that that he hit caught? Do you call the river bet? This play gets way too sticky for me if your read is wrong.

I'm just not good enough to play the later rounds of this situation well. So, if the game is otherwise profitable, I like to avoid it.


Still looking for some more input and explaination form the highly skilled players at this forum (no offense to you, arkitekton, or anyone else... obviously you wanted import too or you wouldn't have posted the hand... and probably preferably from better players than I )....

Thanks!
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arkitekton
Old 10-10-2006, 08:59 PM #7 (permalink)  
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arkitekton
To backtrack to your first post, NWN, you wrote:

Quote:
PS
I might get flamed for this, because it sounds kind of weak. But I don't hav too much of a problem with folding the flop either, especailly at the lower limits.
If I'm reading you right, then perhaps you should be folding in the small blind preflop with 22? Because if we assume villain in the big blind will call your preflop raise with any two cards, and you get a decent flop (what with the paired board making it less likely villain paired on the flop), and nonetheless plan to fold (meaning you'd probably fold unless you caught a set on the flop, or the flop came three of a kind), isn't it consistent to then fold preflop? And isn't folding preflop in the small blind with 22 clearly incorrect? That's a lot of questions, but I'm just trying to connect the dots in your reasoning.

Quote:
Still looking for some more input and explaination form the highly skilled players at this forum (no offense to you, arkitekton, or anyone else...
So am I, and no offense taken
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NWNewell
Old 10-10-2006, 09:58 PM #8 (permalink)  
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No,

I like raising preflop... you odds to pick up the pot right there against many typical players (1.5SB:1.5SB.... I think the majority of players would fold half their hands, or maybe more).

I would continuation bet the flop because your oppoent most likely missed the flop there is a siginifcant chance he will fold. Probably better than the 3:1 pot odds you've got to bet (probably missed and will fold more than 25% of the time).

But when your oppoenent raises back at you, this is where it gets tricky and is a marginal play. When you look at the chances that your oppoent hit, and his chances to draw out, your odds get worse and worse with 22. And when he raises back at you, he could very easily have hit something or at least a draw that will take him to the river (getting you to the 3:2 odds poker stove showed and putting you in a marginal situation). And it only is at all profitable if your read is correct. So, folding to the flop raise was what I was refering to.

I'm raising pre-flop, continuation betting the flop.

The rest of the hand gets a little dicey for me....

If my oppoent raised, I'm not sure if I would be confident enough in my read to (don't think I read that well), to be sure my opponent would raise the flop with anything and give up on a bricked turn.

And I'm not sure what is the best way to proceed if your oppoent only call the flop continuation bet.
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arkitekton
Old 10-11-2006, 04:09 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
And I'm not what is the best way to proceed if your oppoent only call the flop continuation bet.
This is the tough one for me. I have to go with texture here--if another club comes on the turn, or a 9, or a J, I'll tend to check / fold. With an Ace I'll often bet, since if he doesn't have one, it's a bear of a bet to call after the previous action. One of the things that's clear to me is that the crazier the opponent, the tougher this situation is particularly, as you demonstrated so ably earlier, how close to even it is in terms of EV.

Part of my question about folding 22 preflop was based on the idea that if you're SPECIFICALLY playing heads up against a maniac in the big blind, who simply won't fold on the flop, and is likely to raise your flop bet because he understands the flop probably didn't hit you either, AND you plan on taking the kinds of actions you've described in those cases, then you're better off folding preflop. Against a saner player, of course, who will fold a number of hands in the big blind to the small blind's raise, and do some raising when he's caught a hand, you're much better off. All of this is really helping me think the hand through from the big blind's point of view. If I'm in a tight game where preflop it's often folded to the blinds, if I'm up against an aggressive small blind by far the best image I can project is that of a maniac, or at least a highly, highly aggressive player.


Quote:
If my oppoent raised, I'm not sure if I would be confident enough in my read to (don't think I read that well), ...
So what's your plan for improvment, Mr. SSHE?
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NWNewell
Old 10-11-2006, 01:06 PM #10 (permalink)  
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lol... What can I say.... SSHE has served me well so far, and I think any beginner or micro-limit player would do well to simily follow that book. Plus, well over 50% of the questions asked on this forum can be addressed by that book. So, if people who haven't yet, would read it. I think we can move from A,B,C poker to D,E,F poker (as outphase's sig quotes), and start having more dabates like this one (although, some may consider this debate A,B,C poker too.. but it's not for me yet... lol).

Quote:
Originally Posted by arkitekton
Quote:
And I'm not what is the best way to proceed if your oppoent only call the flop continuation bet.
This is the tough one for me. I have to go with texture here--if another club comes on the turn, or a 9, or a J, I'll tend to check / fold. With an Ace I'll often bet, since if he doesn't have one, it's a bear of a bet to call after the previous action.
This is pretty much what I would do. Although, I wouldn't be quit as quick to bet the Ace. If he only calls, I'm thinking he is probably on a draw. But if he is drawing to an over or two, I think it is more likely that he is holding an Ace than a King or Queen (I think most are more inclined to call preflop with Ax than Kx or Qx). But in general, I agree... I probably b/f a blank, and c/f a scare card.

Quote:
Originally Posted by arkitekton
Part of my question about folding 22 preflop was based on the idea that if you're SPECIFICALLY playing heads up against a maniac in the big blind, who simply won't fold on the flop, and is likely to raise your flop bet because he understands the flop probably didn't hit you either, AND you plan on taking the kinds of actions you've described in those cases, then you're better off folding preflop.

All of this is really helping me think the hand through from the big blind's point of view. If I'm in a tight game where preflop it's often folded to the blinds, if I'm up against an aggressive small blind by far the best image I can project is that of a maniac, or at least a highly, highly aggressive player.
Possibly. Against a true maniac, I tend to follow some advice I remember from SSHE (lol... no comments... lol). Which is to tend to call more, give the maniac some rope, and let him hang himself on your made hands. I am less inclined to get into a raising battle trying to push a maniac out. It is can be marginal play. And against a true maniac, he is usually happy to get into a raising battle at almost anytime.... so I would rather wait and get all that money in when I know I have the better of it. As I said before, I think I can find more profitable spots. And if I can't find a more profitable spots, I find another table.

But if, he only becomes maniac is against steal attempts, then maybe I should be trying your line a little more (because if he is not a true maniac, he probably won't keep up the act the whole way through the hand). This the whole reading player tendencies that I really need to work on.


Quote:
Originally Posted by arkitekton
Quote:
If my oppoent raised, I'm not sure if I would be confident enough in my read to (don't think I read that well), ...
So what's your plan for improvment, Mr. SSHE?
lol... Well, that is exactly why I'm at this forum and participating in this thread.

Half the time, when I post my opinion and thoughts, the reason I they are so damn long winded is because I want to layout my thought process so that if I am wrong, others can identify why and shoot it down. Sometimes the results of the debate convince me that I'm wrong, sometimes I'm not so convinced.

Through this thread, you've convinced me that the way I play this situation has some holes and is definitely explotable.

Although, I'm still not sure exactly how to plug those holes.

I seem to leak more money when I try to base my decisions on fancier/more complex reads. So, I tend to avoid making a possible mistake that is -EV and opt for the 0 EV choice (folding).

"I struggle with the curveball, so I sit back and wait on the fastballs (hoping the pitcher doesn't realize I can't hit the curve). But I guess the only way to learn to hit the curve is to take a shot at it once in a while"

So, I guess I need to get in there and mix it up on occation (and post the HH for critque)! And try to pick my spots to mix it up from my reads. I guess the only way to improve my reading ability is to try to use it, and see what the outcome is.

I just tend to worry about the cost to my profits when I'm wrong. But I guess I need to take my own advice at treat it as a video game that I'm trying to beat and work on improving. That's probably why my reading ability hasn't improved all that much... because I'm reluctent to put it to the test at times, reluctant to make the mistakes that I can learn from.

I'm sure mixing it up on occation is not going to turn me into a loosing player (as long as I don't go crazy)... as the other profitable situations will more than make up for my mistakes. And who knows..... I may even get a few right... lol... I know I won't know until I try.

Thanks, arkitekton... I'm on a new mission to experiment with theses situations this month!
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