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A silly, silly raise war

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doktorgeddyn

07-23-2006, 08:39 PM Post subject: A silly, silly raise war

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2006

Location: Austin, TX

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Regardless of the outcome, I'm pretty certain I played this completely wrong.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J

, K

. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
4 folds, MP2 raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A

, J

, K

(2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) J

(2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls.

River: (15.25 BB) 4

(2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

Up til now, MP2 appeared to be going in far too often and raising pretty much every flop (only to drop at the turn or check around to the river) -- I'm guessing he plays any suited/any connector/any position.

I was irrationally thrilled with my 2-pair flop, regardless of the flush/royal flush showing, then ecstatic with my dominatable full house.

Also, this is my first post. I'm a newbie, been playing low limit/ low stakes for maybe 2 years in my spare time. Please be cruel.

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Xanadu

07-24-2006, 12:09 AM

#2 (permalink)

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It is quite possible you played it very well, and that you played it very badly. It really all depends on 2 things. First, what hands will your opponent raise with preflop in that position, and second, how does your opponent value hands post flop. If this is someone who would regularly raise in this spot with hands like QTo and Qxs, and would also go nuts post flop with as little as top straight or top 2pair with a flush and boat possible against heavy resistance, then it's ok. If not, you probably are beat on the turn. Knowing that the player is aggressive on the flop but generally gets passive later tells you he definitely has a hand here. Depending on his hand valuations, only a few are possible:
AA, KK, AJ, KJ, QT, Qxc, AK, QJ with Jc, JT with Tc, T9c, T8c, 98c. So the question is which of these might be in his raising range, and then are you better than 50% against that?

thenonsequitur

07-24-2006, 05:42 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Posts: 637

Xanadu nailed it pretty well. Reads, reads, reads.

I'd just like to add that if your opponent raises a LOT preflop, you might want to iso-3-bet this to get it heads up. KJs has an edge heads-up over someone raising their top 50% of hands.

KJs also plays okay multi-way though so getting over-cold-callers isn't so bad, and a preflop 3-bet might make him more hesitant to go ape-shit with middle pair on the flop, so a call has merits too.

doktorgeddyn

07-24-2006, 01:18 PM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2006

Location: Austin, TX

Posts: 2

Thanks for the analysis. Turns out he had AA, and was re-raising me pretty quickly (quicker than his normal) throughout.

Fnord

07-24-2006, 06:25 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Flop and turn are standard. Pre-flop and the river are debatable, but given your read aren't that bad. I guess the key here is that he was slowing down on the big streets, so the turn cap gives you good information about the status of your under-full. Maybe you get away with just a call. Meh.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

elipsesjeff

07-24-2006, 07:49 PM

#6 (permalink)

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elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

yeah, this is one of those "shit happens" hands and you unfortunately pay him off. Usually if you cap a street and he bets into you again on the next street, he has you beat.

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arkitekton

07-25-2006, 06:52 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

Glad you're posting. This is a good place to get advice.

Regarding the hand, looks like I`m in the minority again...

I agree that against a very loose pf raiser 3 betting or folding is better than cold-calling (it improves the chances you'll buy the button; you want to give someone behind you with AQ or AJ or KQ every reason to fold; you also don`t want to let the big blind in cheaply. That said I`d much rather have something such as AJ or AT--the kinds of hands that win showdowns unimproved. For three betting with KJs to be right I`d think your opponent would have to be raising on everything from AA to 98. I do think calling here is the worst of all possible worlds.

Why raise on the flop? There`s an excellent chance you're behind and if you're not, there's an excellent chance you'll be outdrawn. This looks like a classic example of waiting until the turn comes to see where you might be. Oh--and if you think you're ahead after the turn card, but you've already raised on the flop, how much money will your opponent put in with a pair or less or as a bluff?

Given that, capping the flop can`t be right. It can`t be a value bet after you've been reraised, and it doesn't sound like you'll be intimidating this particular opponent by capping.

Given all the actual betting, it's not clear at all to cap the turn, either. Your opponent can see the board as well as you can, and he heard you cold call preflop. Surely he knows by reraising he:s giving you odds, and that the chances are good you have a full house.

As for the river: once you`ve capped the flop and turn and your opponent bets into you here, you're beaten. Make the crying call and stop the hemmoraghing.

Best of luck to you--very interesting hand..

Fnord

07-25-2006, 08:45 AM

#8 (permalink)

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