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LawDude
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12-01-2009, 06:02 AM
Post subject: should i value bet here?
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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8/16 at hustler, passive bunch of stations
hero is on the button with Ah9h.
UTG, who is a bit laggy, raises. 4 callers. i call. SB calls. BB calls.
flop 762 with two clubs. everyone checks.
turn 8 of hearts. BB bets, utg folds, 1 caller, i call.
river is 9 of diamonds. checks to hero. hero...??
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ponyboy
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 379
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Definite bet in my book. If BB got two pair on the turn then oh well.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Is 2 pair the only thing we are worried about? We aren't worried about sets? The idiot end of the straight? (I will concede that one thing I am NOT worried about is the good end of the straight.)
Not saying you are wrong. But that's really the question-- what range are we up against here?
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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There's so many 2 pair combos that either of them could have here. And if they are both uber passive/weak that they are scared of every monster under the bed, they would check it. Vbetting might even incline them to fold weak one pair hands given the smallish pot and scary board.
So I really only see downsides to betting here, with very little upside.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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ponyboy
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
There's so many 2 pair combos that either of them could have here. And if they are both uber passive/weak that they are scared of every monster under the bed, they would check it. Vbetting might even incline them to fold weak one pair hands given the smallish pot and scary board.
So I really only see downsides to betting here, with very little upside.
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Maybe I interpreted the hand wrong, but didn't everyone check on the river? Or are there still players there besides SB and BB who both checked?
Also, you have to consider if SB and BB both also know that UTG is a lag and have opened their ranges up. If not, we could be afraid of a set here but I really think you would see a bet on the river if that was the case (unless they are now scared of the straight as well).
Basically you lose to any 5, any 10 and any pocket pairs besides 3 or 4. After thinking about that, I'd check/fold.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Yes, everyone checked to us on the river, we're last to act. My point is, in uber passive games like this, so many players will only bet the river like this with nutlike hands (sets or better). They will check literally everything else.
They are scared of the board, thinking someone surely has a better hand than their pair/2pair/trips/even low straight. Monsters under the bed, etc. They may be stations, but they may well throw away 3rd or 4th pair if we bet. So we may end up value towning ourselves by making a bet.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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LeanAndMean
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High Card
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5
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Sure, bet. The nice thing about limit is that it limits loses. If someone has you he can only put in one raise, you can see cheaply if you are beat, and if you get called by a lower pair, you win more
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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the way i look at it...
we are not closing action here and i dont know how much value there is in a bet. do we really get called by worse with an obvious 4straight up? do we fold out anything better? betting here turns our hand into a bit of a bluff if raised.
check behind, take pot, move on.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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of course bet.
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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11 bb in the pot means I bet and probably should fold to a raise, but I don't usually as I am getting 14:1 to call when that happens (assuming I'm last to act - if both are still in I am not calling a checkraise). If they fold even once every 10 times, it is a worthwhile but thin value bet. If weak pairs call ever it just widens the margin.
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JWalker
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High Card
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 10
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I think it is too thin. There are tons of 5s, two pairs, overpairs and freaked out slowplaying sets. I wouldn't rule out checkraising T's completely either. Maybe the game is so loose preflop and postflop that you get value from worse pairs but I doubt it.
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