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Should I suck it up and bet this turn?

  
 
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Fnord
Old 06-14-2007, 11:11 AM     Post subject: Should I suck it up and bet this turn? #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars Game #10428264149: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/06/14 - 06:21:11 (ET)
Table 'Ostara IV' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Gideon ($41 in chips)
Seat 2: LRL69 ($53.45 in chips)
Seat 3: Jakey1000 ($91.90 in chips)
Seat 7: akdlejtmdn ($117.15 in chips)
Seat 8: Fnord ($116.25 in chips)
akdlejtmdn: posts small blind $0.50
Fnord: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Fnord [:Ts: :Jc: :Td: ]
Gideon: calls $1
LRL69: folds
Jakey1000: calls $1
akdlejtmdn: calls $0.50
Fnord: checks
*** FLOP *** [:Jh: :Th:]
akdlejtmdn: checks
Fnord: bets $3.80
Gideon: calls $3.80
Jakey1000: calls $3.80
akdlejtmdn: folds
*** TURN *** [:Jh: :Th:] []
Fnord: checks intending to bomb any bet...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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dsaxton
Old 06-14-2007, 11:26 AM #2 (permalink)  
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What makes you think your opponents will bet a worse hand? I think you should just lead out with a pot or near pot-sized bet.
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Fnord
Old 06-14-2007, 01:07 PM #3 (permalink)  
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My concern here is managing the size of the pot on the river, given that most of the cards in the deck take away my nuts.

I'd really like to be pot-struck or facing an easy to deal with bet size if I choose to call down a bad card. Weak/tight thinking? I know you think pot control is over-rated...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Ash256
Old 06-14-2007, 02:14 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 But what are your opponents going to bet the turn with? You've got the board strangled and a set of 3s would've (Most likely) raised the flop. And is it actually possible in a pot-limit game to bomb Jakey enough so that you've got less than full pot to call on the river?
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bigspenda73
Old 06-14-2007, 02:21 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I c/r this a lot and lead very little

Way more than half the deck cripples your hand
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zenbitz
Old 06-14-2007, 05:08 PM #6 (permalink)  
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lead for half/pot (re-raise max obv), check/fold river (see my latest post) unless you boat up?

I lead for half, and raise (because you are actually ahead vs. any single opponent unless he has some huge combo draw). 1/2 pot might induce from a maniac, and at least makes them pay a little to draw.
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bigspenda73
Old 06-14-2007, 06:13 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 we're not a favorite against the field
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Fnord
Old 06-15-2007, 09:42 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
we're not a favorite against the field
I think we have more than 33% pot equity, so there is immediate value on a bet. The biggest issue is that we're getting the worst of the river betting.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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KoRnholio
Old 06-15-2007, 07:03 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
we're not a favorite against the field
I think we have more than 33% pot equity, so there is immediate value on a bet. The biggest issue is that we're getting the worst of the river betting.
Yeah, this is a pretty common bad spot to be in postflop. Out of position with the best hand, medium sized pot with lots of money behind and two opponents on a board full of draws.

It's really a no-win situation here since going for a check-bomb will often result in giving a free card. But betting will make the pot big and allow one or both opponents to have implied odds (or even a bluff) against us on the river since they will put us squarely on a set here.

Looking back at the stack sizes, even a check-raise here won't shake off Jakey1000 if he has a decent draw. Pot is about $14, so if we check and someone bets pot, we can only raise it up to $56 total. That gives the bettor 2:1 on the call and about $25-30 left behind that we will have to bet or call unless something nasty like the 9:hearts: or Q:hearts: comes off.

Still, I think a check to either keep the pot small or induce a bet to come over top of is a slightly better choice. This hand really shows the power of the draw when in position.

EDIT: This problem is actually quite similar to how to play aces preflop in PLO. You either want to get a small fraction or a large fraction of your stack in, to prevent people from having good implied odds against you. Getting a medium amount of money in is actually the worst option.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 06-15-2007, 08:07 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 c/r is the only way to get all the money in the pot ahead

I started betting these turns a lot more lately and I started getting stacked or having to c/f dangerous rivers. I really didn't like it so I have started controlling the pot on the turn much more.

I stand by my original c/r line
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