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Raoni_Poker

05-08-2009, 10:31 PM Post subject: Should I stay or should I go?

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Netherlands

Posts: 265

Hi, guys

I've noticed that my results vary considerably according to the amount of hands I play in each session. I usually prefer to play 30 minute sessions instead of long hours. However, once in a while, I decide to have longer sessions, which invariably makes me lose money.

I made a graph crossing the amount of hands per session x profit.
My profit declines dramatically (is negative, actually) in long sessions. I usually play 50 hands each session and have a profit of something like 10BB/100 hands. Whenever I decide to play long sessions...I lose almost all my profit...stepping down to something like 2BB/100 hands overall (considering my profit in small sessions). These are results of my account in PokerRoomSchool, which I have something like 1000 hands. However, I made this same analysis with results in other rooms and its about the same thing.

I dont get it...I play in the same way in both cases, but it seems that in the long run my game is not that profitable. What really is frustrating is because I play in the micros...and those guys just dont have a clue on how to play appropriately. They call every raise with anything (my AA defeated by a T5, JJ, defeated by 64s).

When I have a good profit (like 10BB), I get out of the game because I know that if I continue to play it I'm going to lose it all. This happened to me today. I won a great pot in early game and should just stop there. However, I continued and in 100 hands, I won 2 pots (I'm counting the first one). Total balance: - 47BB. Many bad beats.

Does anyone has this same problem or your results should not vary that way?

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LawDude

05-08-2009, 10:33 PM Post subject: Re: Should I stay or should I go?

#2 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker

Switch tables?

Raoni_Poker

05-08-2009, 10:37 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

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Yes, that migth work in PS. However, I'm playing with 50$ bonus at PokerRoomSchool. So, we have very few table options. Iplay at 2 tables with at least 7 people. Down to 6 people, I just sit out or leave.

LawDude

05-09-2009, 05:45 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2009

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker

You need to think about WHY I recommended switching tables and what that tells you about why your results might trend downward over the course of a longer session.

StarlightCoast

05-11-2009, 05:27 AM

#5 (permalink)

One Pair

Join Date: Jul 2005

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For me, i find the longer the session the better. i think that the longer session gives variance time to even out.

Chopper

05-11-2009, 01:26 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

what you are describing can be boiled down to variance, imo. you are talking about 50 hands at a time vs 200. there really shouldnt be any correlation between winning and losing in short bursts like this.

i, too, prefer shorter sessions. and, i tend to lose a bit of focus or try to overexploit weaknesses in longer sessions. so, maybe there is something there. but, i wouldnt put too much stock in the shorter session thing.

focus more on position, starting hands, protecting your hand, and value betting. you just dont get many opportunities in a 50 hand session to practice those things.

i would try to open another table and get that half hour up to 100+ hands. that will keep your sessions shorter, but allow you to log some more hands to refine these concepts.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-11-2009, 04:52 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2009

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OK, folks, the OP asked why his results tend to trend downward over the course of a session.

And of course, it is true that it could be variance, in which case, the correct answer is just keep playing good poker.

But it also could be something else, especially since we are talking about online poker here.

Simply put, we talk a lot about heads up displays here at FTR, but it's not mentioned enough that as the session wears on, YOUR OPPONENTS ARE COLLECTING INFORMATION ABOUT YOU.

Given the number of players out there using software tools, I would expect that it would be incredibly standard that over time, your results will decline at a given table. Your opponents are learning about the way you play and making adjustments. Indeed, this even happens at live games where there is no HUD, and I suspect it would happen through note-taking if you were playing good enough players online even if they weren't using HUD's.

So that's why I said switch tables. Get with a new group of players who haven't yet adjusted to your game.

Chopper

05-11-2009, 11:34 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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to a point, i agree. but, there is such a high volume of players on any given site, especially if it has "skins" that share a network (even a couple thousand players is a lot....i'll explain a bit farther down.), i think the "HUD thing" is a bit overstated. not overblown, just overstated.

first, we have to be playing decent stakes to run into HUDbots. second, we have to play A LOT before any read becomes remotely reliable. third, we are assuming our players are adjusting to us.

those are pretty big assumptions given that everytime i sit at stars i see almost completely new players EVERY time. it is hard for me to get 100+ hands on someone, and that isnt even a reliable stat sample size. most players that have HUDs know this, and dont completely adjust this quickly. in fact, most dont do much other than respect you a bit more. that isnt OP's problem, imo. OP may be doing the adjusting....not his villains.

as for the volume thing, i play a lot at Cake/Sportsbook. there are rarely 8k+ players on the entire site when i play. usually, there are only 3 tables of my limit up and running. i STILL see new players constantly. and, the "regs" are hit and miss at best. the regs i do see are not adjusting to me at all....maybe one or two. and, that is on a "low volume" site.

imagine playing any other higher volume site? it would be worse in terms of regulars, in that there arent more of them but less, and the player/fish pool would be bigger...meaning it takes even longer to take a read on someone....or them on you.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-12-2009, 12:47 AM

#9 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Netherlands

Posts: 265

Thanks for the replies,

I think my opponents are so weak that I really dont think they're adjusting to my game. I'm having a profit of 1,3BB per 100 hands (sample of 1000 hands at PokerRoomSchool). This seems nothing, because sometimes a get 30BB over 30 hands and lose ital in longer sessions. In this sample, I played 17% of the hands and won almost 1/3 of these hands. That seems ok?

The main question for me is knowing when to stop. I usually keep playing when I'm losing and leave when I win a big pot (because I assume I would lose it if I keep playing...that happens often).

Chopper

05-12-2009, 03:38 AM

#10 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

two things, from my perspective:

1) poker is NOT about knowing when to stop. well, it can be from a "responsible gaming" sense, but to the winning player it isnt. its about how many hands you can log.....thats it. if you are a winner, you maximize your profit by playing more hands....while at peak performance. should you play when you've been awake for 4 straight days? no. but, the winner only concerns himself with playing more hands, more tables, or both. not with "knowing when to stop" when he is only playing short sessions.

2) one thing you said disturbs me. you say you play 17% of your hands and win 1/3 of those. that is not the correct mindset. you are out to win BIG pots, not quantities of pots. you cant focus on winning every hand you play. thats a death sentence. you need to change that mindset super quick. all that will do is get you into trouble.

instead, focus on winning "winnable" hands. those in which you know a well-timed bluff will steal the pot. or, by valuebetting situations you know you are ahead in. or, by maximizing your chances to win a big pot.....even when you dont think you are the favorite, but still have winning chances. those are the keys to winning poker, not "winning X% of pots."

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-12-2009, 03:28 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Netherlands

Posts: 265

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

I agree with you. In fact, I usually win one big pot per session. However, when I keep playing, the trend is to lose it all. Aside from that, I usually lose a lot of money in big pots due to the favorable odds to keep calling even if i'm no favorite.

My main concern is because when you play with weak players, you can only wait for good cards. Forget about position (it has limited influence), bluffing or whatever. Many times I had a strong hand on the button and raised behind 5 limpers. They will call and you'll have to be lucky to win it. Nobody respect raises and in very few hands you win with a bold play, like a cold stone bluff in the river on the right player (I did it once in 1K hands).

Its a lot about luck. I feel the trend here is to get even money on the long run. I know I have to play a lot of hands to clear my bonus at PokerRoomSchool, so...I'm not worried if I get even money. I just want to increase levels and THEN see what happens.

PS: How can I post my graphs here?

Chopper

05-12-2009, 04:37 PM

#12 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

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dude, before you move up levels, you need to get your head/thinking right. it is still off based on your response. we are here to help, but you have to be willing to listen....instead of keep following up with "nobody respects raises, i want to breakeven, increase levels THEN see what happens" stuff. increase levels, now, and i will tell you what happens....you will go broke faster than you are now. check the ego you dont think you have at the door for the time being...you are not ready.

lets play some Q & A for a minute and see if you can walk your way to the answers because that is the only way we learn....to find the answers on our own.

Quote:

Many times I had a strong hand on the button and raised behind 5 limpers. They will call and you'll have to be lucky to win it.

this is only true to a point, even at lower stakes. let me ask you: WHAT hand did you raise behind 5 limpers? give me a "range" of hands you would raise.

let's start there.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-12-2009, 05:43 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Netherlands

Posts: 265

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

Quote:

Many times I had a strong hand on the button and raised behind 5 limpers. They will call and you'll have to be lucky to win it.

this is only true to a point, even at lower stakes. let me ask you: WHAT hand did you raise behind 5 limpers? give me a "range" of hands you would raise.

let's start there.

I'm not saying I'm better than anyone at micro stakes. Its only difficult for me to find in these games the same patterns I've read in books like Sklansky. I feel that luck in these tables have a huge influence. In fact a hand without a showdown is quite rare. So, if you're not a real good player (that's my case), the trend is to have a little profit considering you're more selective than your opponents.

About increase levels, what I mean is specifically about PokerRoomSchool. I am very responsible about my bankroll and i would not do anything precipitaded (my bankroll in Everest and PS began with freerol prizes). However, in PRS, I'm only allowed to play in 0,20-0,10 rooms (beginners). I intend to increase levels just to get more points and clear my 100$ bonus (which, by the way, I think is impossible).

Anyway, I apologize if I sounded arrogant. I'm not like that at all. I recognize my leaks and I'm studying hard to minimize them.

About the raise after 5 limpers, it happened when I was holding AA. I lost the hand for 2 guys who made a straight with a T-7, and T-J (on the river, by the way).

My raising range in this specific case is something like TT-AA, AJs+, AQ+. Its a limited range because I'm assuming everyone is calling anyway. I would call with a wide range here because of the favorable odds (middle suited connectors, small pairs and high cards).

I appreciate your willingness to help!

LawDude

05-12-2009, 06:34 PM

#14 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

I agree with you. In fact, I usually win one big pot per session. However, when I keep playing, the trend is to lose it all. Aside from that, I usually lose a lot of money in big pots due to the favorable odds to keep calling even if i'm no favorite.

This is standard in limit. If you are calling the turn with 6 outs (say, 2 overcards where your villain has a pair) and the pot is giving you 14 to 1 odds, bear in mind that does mean that you are only going to hit that draw 1 out of 8 times. The other 7 of 8 times, you are going to lose. But you have to call, unless you can narrow villain's range down to mostly hands that are likely to beat you even if you hit your draw.

Further, due to variance, even though the odds are 1 in 8, you might very well go through 16 of these situations without hitting one. It can happen.

My main concern is because when you play with weak players, you can only wait for good cards. Forget about position (it has limited influence), bluffing or whatever.

This is partly true and partly false. It is true that against calling stations, if you find that they won't fold to aggression, you need to stop being so aggressive with weak hands and trying to force folds. And this definitely makes variance more of an issue. (Indeed, it's probably the reason that when I go to a card club and sit at a low-limit table while waiting for my high-limit table to open up, I often lose some money. Against lower limit players who call a lot, you basically have to wait around until you get the best hand, and sometimes you never do.)

But this doesn't mean position doesn't matter. Position matters a ton against weak players, because weak players tend not to disguise their holdings very much. One of the most obvious betting tellis in all of poker is when a fish wakes up and suddenly plays aggressive. You want that information before you act, not afterwards.

Further, position matters because even in a fishy game, there will be hands where it folds around to you. A raise in late position against a fishy table can steal the blinds or steal the pot on the flop with a c-bet-- it happens all the time.

Many times I had a strong hand on the button and raised behind 5 limpers. They will call and you'll have to be lucky to win it. Nobody respect raises and in very few hands you win with a bold play, like a cold stone bluff in the river on the right player (I did it once in 1K hands).

For your information, my regular table these days is $15/$30 at Hollywood Park, and despite a tight, almost nitty table image, in general my pre-flop raises are called by at least 3 players and usually 4 or 5. In the last 40 hours of play, I've probably taken down the blinds with a pre-flop raise once.

There are a number of reasons to raise, but remember that one of them is that you think you have the best chance of winning the hand. Yes, pocket aces don't play as well in 5-way pots as they do heads up, but they are still almost always a favorite. You just have to be willing to lay them down if it turns out that someone's obviously hit something big. You are still getting good odds on your pre-flop raises.

Also, raising pre-flop sometimes creates fold equity post-flop, even at fishy tables. Something to remember if several people call your raise.

Now, that doesn't mean that your raising range after 5 limpers is necessarily correct; it could be that you are raising hands that are NOT likely to have the best chance of winning the hand, in which case you may need to tighten up. But the fact that you get lots of callers doesn't mean you don't have the best hand and shouldn't be raising.

Its a lot about luck.

Not at all. If you played against 8 complete calling stations (in other words, every one of them called every hand down to the river), you would become a winning player simply by selecting hands that were likely to win against the ranges of your opponents. You would not need to do anything else. Now would there be a ton of variance? You bet! You might lose over any particular hour, or two hours, or three hours of play, because sometimes you just don't get any good hands during that period, and if 8 players are calling you down, the odds of a suckout get greater and greater. But you would win money over time. No luck needed.

Obviously, the games you are playing at aren't quite THAT bad, but still, there's not much more that you need to do to beat a bunch of calling stations than play the right hands and play them correctly. Luck may result in bad losing swings, but over time, you will make money.

I feel the trend here is to get even money on the long run. I know I have to play a lot of hands to clear my bonus at PokerRoomSchool, so...I'm not worried if I get even money. I just want to increase levels and THEN see what happens.

You aren't ready to increase levels. You have to get the feel for variance-- which, by the way, exists even at very high limits (I am consistently making money at $15/$30, but I had a minus-$1600 day a few days back.)

I will say this. It is true that FOR A GOOD POKER PLAYER, you get more consistency in your results when you move up to higher limits, because people aren't calling you down with crap and sucking out so much. (Last night, I played $8/$16 while waiting for my $15/$30 table, hit top pair with good kicker on the flop and played it very aggressively, and watched as a guy who had raised pocket 7's on the flop called all the way down to the river and hit his 2-outer on the river to beat me. At $15/$30, I win that hand.) But at the same time, at higher limits, your profits come from being a very skilled poker player and making good reads of your opponents. That is very hard to do. At lower limits, your profits come from people making loose calls and trying to suck out. That's very easy to do, even if occasionally they do suck out on you.

Chopper

05-12-2009, 06:47 PM

#15 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

all poker players have an ego, whether they realize it or not. i wasnt saying you were an ass...just that playing up in levels or the "no one respects my raises AND THEY SHOULD" stuff is coming from ego whether you realize it or not. you are expecting to win every hand with good starting cards, and that simply cant happen. that's all i will say about that because it really wont help that much beyond mentioning it once.

luck, in poker and life, has a HUGE influence. that you will have to accept. skill beats luck....but barely. there just isnt anything you can do about the idiot running hot. you just have to keep putting yourself in +EV situations and charge him to play with you. the "luck" will take care of itself if you play him long enough.......and it may take a long, long time due to luck, too. you just never know.

pots w/o showdowns are rare in limit hold'em...period. NL is where showdowns are less common. the fixed betting structure makes it correct to see a lot of rivers. dont try and bludgeon someone off a pot very often or you will bleed money quickly.

imo, look at that raising range a bit more. i think you are a bit tight for the table conditions. and, thats ok, but it may not be as optimal as opening up (with position) a bit more. you will accomplish a couple things: 1) you will start to build pots with hands that WIN big pots. 2) you will show the others you arent just raising AA, and consequently, your AA will get paid off better. i pm'd you with a starting chart that i think is really, really good. memorize the first one. use the 2nd one when you get a bit more experienced.

when you are raising AFTER limpers, you are only doing so with hands that can win HUGE pots. big suited connectors, bigger pocket pairs, big suited aces and ace-king. notice there isnt much off-suited stuff in here. if you are taking a flop 5 ways in a raised pot with off suited stuff, you have very little "back up" if you flop TP. and, that will cause you to play a bit timid...not the way to max your returns.

most times in multiway, raised pots you are looking to flop TPTK+, hopefully, with a redraw to an even better hand. if you dont hit that, you may not want to get too crazy yet...i didnt say fold yet, either. you certainly dont want to chase a hand while the others are betting and you are saying, "please slow down a bit. i dont know where i stand yet." thats a recipe for disaster. so, stay out of those spots when you can. that is why position is so important, even at lower stakes.

we'll get there.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-12-2009, 07:31 PM

#16 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

In addition to what Chopper said, I would tell you that if you are describing the table accurately (i.e., lots of calling stations) just about ANY of the many versions of tight-aggressive ABC poker should be sufficient to make a profit there. Indeed, even being a simple nit is probably long-term +EV.

In other words, what you really, really have to do is get used to the variance and develop your skills reading these players. Put them on ranges and try to figure out when you are ahead or behind. (Indeed, put them on ranges even when you are watching hands after you have folded.)

I don't doubt that there's some tinkering with your pre-flop raising range that may be +EV, but the real +EV play is going to be to learn to cope with variance and learn how to figure out you are ahead against calling stations and value bet in the proper situations.

Chopper

05-12-2009, 08:44 PM

#17 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

i'll just post the chart here, since i have to rewrite it.....and its always good review. this is from SSHE's "tight" tables (3-5 callers). i dont think many tables, online, qualify as "loose" anymore....by the authors' standards.

for a full ring game (for 6max, just start with mp2 as your utg since its the same thing (you are only 3 off the button)).

early position (UTG-UTG2)
if no raise...
call w/ 77+, suited broadways, AJo+, KQo
raise w/ TT+, AJs+, AQo+
vs a raise...
call w/ TT+, AJs+, KQs, AKo
RR w/ TT+, AKs, AKo
vs a RR...
call w/ NOTHING
cap w/ QQ+, AKs

middle position (MP1-MP3)
if no raise...
call w/ 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, 98s+, ATo+, KJo+
raise w/ raise...99+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo
vs raise...
call w/ TT+,AJs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo
RR w/ TT+,AKs,AKo
vs RR...
cap w/ QQ+, AKs

late position (HJ, CO, BTN)
if no raise (you shouldnt limp if folded to, imo, from here)
call w/ 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,54s+,Offsuited Broadways
raise w/ 99+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs+,ATo+,KQo
vs raise...
call w/ TT+,AJs+,9Ts+(3+ limpers),AQo+
RR w/ TT+, AKs, AKo
vs RR...
cap QQ+, AKs

SB
if no raise...(again, i am not limping here, if folded to)
call w/ LP range, any sooted (your odds are ridiculous from here. i even add anything connected like 68o or Q9o. if it can make a straight using both cards, i play it.)
raise w/ 99+,ATs+,KJs+,AQo+
vs raise...
call w/ same as EP, 22+ w/ 1+ callers
RR w/ same as RR range already listed
capping is the same range, too

these are the basics. notice how the "suited" types of hands really open up (you get to play more of them with weaker kickers), but the offsuit hands stay towards the "good kicker" end of the range. the reason is because when you play a lot of multiway pots, you will need more than a "one pair" hand to win most times. and having these straight and flush draws, along with a pair, makes your hand so much stronger you can afford to play it more aggressively.

just trust the chart while you are learning and focus more on your post flop stuff like "relative position," "valuebetting," and "protecting your hand." post flop pays in LHE...NOT pre flop.

pre flop only sets you up for success. it does no good to only play a range of JJ+, AQs+, AK, KJs+, KQ, QTs+, JTs+, if you dont max your value post flop. sure, you may even be a winning player, but you will be easy to read and easy to avoid.

work with this for awhile, and when you seem comfortable to go a little deeper, we may talk about stealing blinds and relative position concepts.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-12-2009, 08:46 PM

#18 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

Hey, Chopper, you forgot the big blind! But yeah, perfectly good chart.

When I played low limits, my ranges were a bit different, but not substantially different. This will get OP where he needs to get to.

The big key is if he's playing stations time after time, he has to learn how to read stations and when to value bet post-flop. If he can add those two concepts to a tight-aggressive pre-flop strategy, he'll do fine.

Chopper

05-12-2009, 08:53 PM

#19 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

yeah, BB is rather straightforward, to me.

basically, i play anything they let me see for free (the dumbasses), and i dont fold a lot for "one more bet," but i make sure its suited or two BIG broadways. QT and KJ dont count, for me....they are too easily dominated by what is "stealing."

players dont steal enough, from the micro stakes, to get too much into defending your blind. for now, dont be afraid to just let it go.

another word about getting in the pot "for free." just because you see a flop w/ 83o and hit your 8 doesnt mean you should fire a bet....or even call one. with these utter trashy hands, you are looking for something that beats TP before you are putting any money into the pot after the flop.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-12-2009, 08:57 PM

#20 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

Yeah, I did a post on the big blind in the Beginner's Circle a while back. I actually don't mind the lead bet if you hit top-pair-bad-kicker; in an unraised pot, that's often the best hand. But you have to be prepared to get out of the hand if there is significant action and you have a trash hand. It's just so easy to end up dominated and losing a lot of money chasing very few good outs. I've even folded trips from the big blind when it became clear that the villain had trips with a better kicker.

Chopper

05-12-2009, 10:59 PM

#21 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

sure, but at the micro levels, i am not folding trips unless there is a 4 card draw completed. if i have the worst kicker, so be it. folding when you can control the size of the pot is not a good idea. but, thats a topic for another day.

i just want to see OP apply this stuff first, then we can move on a little. however, lawdude, you and i can have separate discussions.....and maybe get Dog going again.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-12-2009, 11:22 PM

#22 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Netherlands

Posts: 265

Thanks both of you!

LawDude:
Bad loose players are very difficult to read. They can have anything. However, I need to work on that. Sometimes I play on auto-pilot and forget to see the nuances of each play. Apart from that, since we're having a lot of showdowns, its a great opportunity to exercise my reading skills.

Usually I'm able to identify extreme opponents in terms of agressivness and loosiness (which almost all of them are). But I'll work on that. Make more concious effort in my plays will improve my game a lot.

About position, I'm sure you're right. Its always an advantage to act after everybody. However, if my reading skills are poor...this influence is minimized (I need to work on that).

About getting profit against calling stations...well I'm getting only 1,3BB per 100 hands. I'm not sure if my variance is considered normal. I started with 50$, went down to 48$ in my early sessions. After that, I got up to 54$, down to 52, up to 56, down to 52 again. I play 0,20-0,10 and the very reason of this thread is because most of my downswings were on my longest sessions.

I know I can do better than that. Lets see over the next 1K hands and compare.

Reply to Chopper on the next post.

Raoni_Poker

05-12-2009, 11:37 PM

#23 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Netherlands

Posts: 265

Chopper:

Man, I really appreciate that. Is this chart the same presented in Sklansky for small stakes?

This was the first book i read about limit HE...and such a great book. I apply this chart with sligth variations. I usually dont play (only in late position without raises) A2s to A9s even though they can win big pots and lose small ones. However, if i hit an ace on the flop with low kicker...i get tempted to call up to the river, and that cant be smart.

As an experience, I'll apply that religiously in the next 1K hands. About the book, my main doubts concern post flop plays. According to the book, we shoud rarely cold call, unless in specific situations. If I have something and have some pot odds, I'll check-call to the river (not if is raised). Is that wrong?

Again, Thanks a lot for helping. I'll apply the chart until it becomes second nature!

LawDude

05-13-2009, 12:10 AM

#24 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

As I recall, the hand went something like this.

I was in the BB with J2o. There were several limpers.

The flop came JJ3 I bet. 2 callers. CO, a pretty nitty player, raised. Folded to me, I 3-bet. Everyone folded except cut-off, who 4-bet me. (No cap because we were heads up.) Turn was a 9. I checked. CO bet. I folded.

My reasoning was that I knew I had 3 outs. I couldn't call that without 15 big bets in the pot, and there weren't close to that.

I'd do it again same situation. This is where I think players take crying calls too far.

LawDude

05-13-2009, 12:16 AM

#25 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker

Here's one of my favorite charts in all of poker, which is food for thought on this issue:

http://www.lowlimitholdem.com/main/o...outkicked.html

Chopper

05-13-2009, 01:48 AM

#26 (permalink)

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agreed, lawdude.

raoni, i wont cold call if "i am the first one to do so." in that situation, i 3bet or fold. however, if there is a raise, and 2 players cold call for me, i have like 4:1 already and a good chance someone will take their hand WAY too far before realizing i outflopped their silly ass. for this, i love pp's and goofy sc's. however, i dont play a lot of the sc's...generally the red and green ones (hearts and clubs). that cuts my chances of playing them everytime the situation arises.

just follow that chart verbatim....no "i made my own variations." again, thats the silent ego thing that subconciously is saying you think you know how to play the game better than sklansky/miller. NOT!! it took me awhile to stop this crap myself.

an as an aside, you are analyzing your game way too quickly. instead of 1k blocks, you should be looking in 5k-10k blocks minimum. then, you will see the variance we are talking about. but, it isnt uncommon to have 25k breakeven runs once you have found your top level for your current abilities.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-13-2009, 01:51 AM

#27 (permalink)

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Nice stuff there...
Definitely going to my favorites

I'm always reluctanct to play A-2 to T (unless is suited and with no raises). Its tricky because beginners tend to fall in love with A-rag. So, very often other(s) ace(s) will be there waiting for you.

The number of opponents in the second chart refers to the number of players seeing the flop or at the table? Depending on that, the numbers can be quite favorable...but as I said...people like to see the flop with A-x.

Chopper

05-13-2009, 01:53 AM

#28 (permalink)

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number of limpers already in.

and suited aces are a goldmine at passive tables. they are a huge leak at aggressive tables. chew on that for a bit.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-14-2009, 01:08 AM

#29 (permalink)

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I've had a bad session today. Over 120 hands, I lost 33BBs. However, I'm identifying the reasons of why that happened. The first one is: STICK TO THE CHART, STUPID!
For most of the time I played strictly those hands on the chart, according to each position and action. However, I lost two major pots that if I had played accordingly, the results could have been different;

1) I had TT on the button. Lots of limpers before me, I decided to just call. Unfortunately, the BB had a speculative hand that made a straigth (even though I flopped a T-set). So, I lost the pot when his card came. If I raised him, he could let go. Well, i'll never know that...he had J8.

2) After many limpers, I called on the SB with K7o (a bad call, I know). Unfortunately, the BB had AA and I made a pair of Ks on the flop. I played this hand very carefully (because of the low kicker). However, on the river, a stupid player decided to reraise the BB bet (with a worse hand than mine) and I (wrongly) called (and got reraised by the BB). Should have fold there. So, this pot was a little bit expensive.

Besides those two hands, I had really bad cards in 2 of my 3 tables (I got good results in the third table...curiously the one I payed less hands). In this first table I played about 30% of my hands...in the other two tables, I played between 10-15% (awful hands and raises before me when I had playable hands).

So...need to get used to this variance. Hope next session is better (you're right, need to stick to the chart).

Chopper

05-14-2009, 01:15 AM

#30 (permalink)

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hand one....did you lead or c/r the flop? you need to get as much money in on the flop, with a set, as possible because you have the best hand almost all the time and you have 10 outs and two cards coming to hit a full house/quads and take out anyone wanting to chase their straights and flushes....you pray they hit the turn and the river pairs the board. thats almost a 40% chance to hit a boat+ AND you likely have the best hand. however, the difference with 5 players in preflop is pretty small, imo, between limping along and raising with TT. you got coolered, dont sweat it....shit happens.

hand two....K7o is fine to limp from the sb, imo. if....lets repeat IF you know what you are looking for. do you? you arent looking for a K. you are looking for two K's or two 7's or a K AND a 7. that's it. maybe a all heart flop and your K is a heart when the A is on board. otherwise, you check and fold on the spot.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-14-2009, 01:56 PM

#31 (permalink)

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In the first hand I raised a previous bet on the flop and the turn. The guy made a straigth on the turn but he did not reraise me then. Yeah...about limping in, I guess they would always call a raise on the BB (for just a single bet).

About the second hand, I hit top pair. In this case, I check/call until the river, when the stupid guy decided to bet with a pair of 9s and got reraised.

Would you fold top pair in this case? (nobody reraised until the river...I'm sure I was the only one holding a K). Unfortunately, the BB had AA and even if if a 7 came on the river, the board was already paired. I had 2 outs in this one.

Apart from that, you're rigth about the power of suited cards in these games. I made a nice flush with KJs, which minimized my negative balance.

Chopper

05-14-2009, 03:35 PM

#32 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker

here is a good "test" for your thinking, imo. why dont you weigh the pro's AND con's to raising pre here. go through some scenarios in your head as to why, in this situation, they are both good. and, why they could both be bad (in terms of maximizing your value). then, you may see how close they are and why this is a great spot to mix up your play by raising some and calling along some.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker

this is exactly why you dont call along with K7 and TP in a multiway pot. is there a K out? maybe, maybe not. but, how expensive is it going to be to find out? in a multiway pot, and oop, you are looking for very strong stuff to continue. otherwise, you check and fold. the other "edges" in these smaller games are too easy to exploit to waste your time trying to max value from TPMK when first to act into several players. you will lose far more than you win here because your villains cant fold K9 and they wont raise, AA may get stupidly tricky, and others will be drawing to 5+ outs on you a lot. take that in combination with the fact you are not HU, and its just too common for you to hold up to showdown with such little room for improvement yourself. this is a HUGE leak for many lower stakes players. you need to shore that one up immediately. it will pay off rather fast. in other words, if you are going to play trash from the small blind (this is fine because of your odds to take a flop), you need to know that you are looking to flop huge or you dont continue multiway......end of leak. for me to peel a flop bet, it has to be one bet back to me with most players sticking around giving me 8:1-ish. and, i c/f if i dont improve on the turn. if i DO improve to 2pr+ on the turn, i c/r and lead rivers. that's about as standard as it can get, imo.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker

Apart from that, you're rigth about the power of suited cards in these games. I made a nice flush with KJs, which minimized my negative balance.

sooooooted is king in limit games. it just gives you another way to draw out and take a pot you otherwise wouldnt have had the odds to chase. but, like all else, it suited cards need to be used with discretion and discipline, too.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-14-2009, 06:13 PM

#33 (permalink)

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About the second hand, I hit top pair. In this case, I check/call until the river, when the stupid guy decided to bet with a pair of 9s and got reraised.

Would you fold top pair in this case? (nobody reraised until the river...I'm sure I was the only one holding a K). Unfortunately, the BB had AA and even if if a 7 came on the river, the board was already paired. I had 2 outs in this one.

this is exactly why you dont call along with K7 and TP in a multiway pot. is there a K out? maybe, maybe not. but, how expensive is it going to be to find out? in a multiway pot, and oop, you are looking for very strong stuff to continue. otherwise, you check and fold. the other "edges" in these smaller games are too easy to exploit to waste your time trying to max value from TPMK when first to act into several players. you will lose far more than you win here because your villains cant fold K9 and they wont raise, AA may get stupidly tricky, and others will be drawing to 5+ outs on you a lot. take that in combination with the fact you are not HU, and its just too common for you to hold up to showdown with such little room for improvement yourself. this is a HUGE leak for many lower stakes players. you need to shore that one up immediately. it will pay off rather fast. in other words, if you are going to play trash from the small blind (this is fine because of your odds to take a flop), you need to know that you are looking to flop huge or you dont continue multiway......end of leak. for me to peel a flop bet, it has to be one bet back to me with most players sticking around giving me 8:1-ish. and, i c/f if i dont improve on the turn. if i DO improve to 2pr+ on the turn, i c/r and lead rivers. that's about as standard as it can get, imo.

One thing I will do when I flop top pair lousy kicker out of position, especially if there aren't that many people in the pot, is take one shot at the pot on the flop. The odds are actually 70 percent when you hit top pair that nobody else has it (and, of course, even if someone has it, there is always a chance that someone has a worse kicker than you do). And I certainly can see where I am based on what the other players do in response to my bet.

But if I can't take the pot down on the flop, I shut down on the turn unless I think that the other players are just on flush or straight draws.

This strategy gives me a good chance to take down a few small pots when I flop top pair while also not getting me in too deep and costing a bunch of money when I am dominated.

But this depends on the table you play at. If nobody ever folds on the flop (which is not uncommon in limit games), it's not such a great idea as you are just pouring money into the pot out of position and with insufficient information.

One other thing about top pair no kicker out of position-- if the pot is big enough and the flop is dry, it is perfectly alright to check/call or even bet/call one street as you may have pot and implied odds to hit your two pair. [EDIT: I see Chopper mentioned this.]

Raoni_Poker

05-15-2009, 11:00 PM

#34 (permalink)

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"One other thing about top pair no kicker out of position-- if the pot is big enough and the flop is dry, it is perfectly alright to check/call or even bet/call one street as you may have pot and implied odds to hit your two pair."

The size of the pot is a variable that makes me keep playing even if I'm no favorite. Usually, I lose a lot o money with that, but in the times I win, it pays off.

Today I had a nice session (19BB in 51 hands). As always, my shorter sessions are better (my logarithim graph relating n° of hands with profit is funny). I am now allowed to play at CD Poker using the 50$ bonus I earned in PokerRoomSchool. Thats nice. Actually, the players at CD Poker are far better than at PokerRoomSchool. People respect raises (even with an early position raise, you can actually keep the blinds sometimes) and play more selectively.

Even though I can upgrade limits there (as opposing to PRS), I'm going to do that only when I fell prepared. Its nice having a good sized BR there, because I can also improve my SG game without the fear of losing a huge chunk of my BR.

I had a hand today and I wonder what you guys think about it. One limper before me, I call with 55, BB call. Flop: 7-7-T.

Action: BB check, villain bets, I raise.
BB fold, villain re-raises, I fold.

Its kind of confusing this way, but I did not find anyway to convert CDP hands. The idea of raising PF was firstly because I found that the flop did not help the first bettor. Also, I intended to get a free card on the turn (I had position).

When he reraises me, its easy to fold.

I wonder if this is a proper play. Some authors claim: no set, no bet...but sometimes you can have the best hand...and on other times, when you get a free card, your hand can improve.

LawDude

05-16-2009, 02:12 AM

#35 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker

It depends on reads. If you feel you have enough fold equity (because your opponents will give up their hands to aggression on this flop), it's a fine play. If you think that you aren't going to get rid of anybody, then you are just going to be stuck folding on the next street.

Now, you are right that it can buy you a free card. But when you have 2 outs, a free card is worth about what you paid for it.

Chopper

05-16-2009, 01:36 PM

#36 (permalink)

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Quote:

please rethink this part. how much do you win compared to how much you lose? does it actually show a NET profit? if so, can you prove it? lots of times we THINK things are profitable when they arent. it may be wise, if you dont have it already, to start looking into pokertracker/HEM in the future for just such situations.

i would also say that implied odds are rarely there when you are chasing 5 outs oop. you are likely only getting 1 more BB on the turn and river, for a grand total of 2. plus, he may redraw your butt and cost you a couple more. not to mention the times he 3bets your c/r because your 2nd pair just coolered you into his set. bla bla bla.

it needs much more thought before you start to accept it as a profitable peeling situation, imo.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Chopper

05-16-2009, 01:41 PM

#37 (permalink)

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as for your 55 hand, i would be more inclined to call him down, or cap the flop and check behind the turn and call a safe river. reasoning (and its read dependent of course)....your aggro villains will c/r with lots of stuff. 88 wont, though, but 89 will. the 7 may. the T probably will. its hard to tell, but i tend to think someone, if aggro, is a bit full of shit and i dont leave HU pots with pp's.....i just call down and let him hang himself.

if he was a passive villain, i still raise on the flop (to both earn a free river and to protect my hand against the BB.....which worked well here, btw). but, if he donks me again, i am likely done.

different lines for different villains. its the sole reason reads are so important. not that you had one in 51 hands. thats another thing about short sessions that is not so good.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-16-2009, 04:08 PM

#38 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

Quote:

You have a point there. The fact is that I'm not sure if its been profitable at all to call in big pots situations. Firstly, since those pots
are multiway...your winning chances are low when you have low chances to improve your hand (if you made a pair, for instance). It also depends on the texture of the flop. Very often I see players calling up to the river to find that their Top Pair was crushed by a flush.

When you're drawing to what migth be a winning hand and you have the odds to call, thats ok. But knowing when to fold (whether is because of strong resistance, flop texture or whatever) is one my leaks.

I intend to get PokerTracker when my BR allows it. I have some of my results in a spreadsheet, but would be nice to have my performance thorougly analyzed in PT (position, betting patterns, cards, etc...).

Raoni_Poker

05-16-2009, 04:19 PM

#39 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

I did not have any specific read on this. I was in 2 tables and did not remember any specific hand regarding this villain. I raised because at this limits people get intimidated very often when they are making a probe bet. So, when you get called (sometimes they fold), you usually get a free card on the river. Depending on the turn card, they migth also fold to a bet.

But when youre raised buy a vilain that have not shown much aggressiveness...than he might have something. But in this case (with a monster), it could be better for him to call me and extract more bet(s) on the turn and river by check-raising the turn and betting the river, right?

Chopper

05-16-2009, 04:34 PM

#40 (permalink)

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one of the major keys/tells to these micro levels is to bet/raise yourself to get free cards and bet for very thin values. like 88 on a T J 6 flop. i am betting it on the turn/river if no one wants the pot. but, not into four players.

however, when a rather passive player (one that likes to call, call, call) suddenly raises you (much less a check/raise), it means business. as a rule of thumb, it means that TPTK is whooped.

so, in short, bet until they tell you to stop. but, when they tell you to stop by raising you, STOP!! i didnt say fold necessarily. i said stop....meaning dont put more in, on your own, unless you drastically improve.

also, you have to know when to fold TP. likely its completely out of position and facing betting.

if the pots are HU or 3 players, you can get a little bluffy....and try some "moves." but, if its 3, or more, i wouldnt bluff if my life depended on it. but, i will semibluff when i am trying to build pots and i have 8+ outs.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-17-2009, 02:06 AM

#41 (permalink)

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To push back a little against Chopper, bear in mind that with respect to weak top pairs, you don't have to be right THAT often, as long as there's a decent pot size, to call one small bet on the flop. That's what I mean by saying you often have pot and implied odds to call. You just have to be willing to shut down if there is serious action, or if you don't hit your draw on the turn.

If you watch High Stakes Poker on GSN, a no limit cash game, you will see a similar thing in the way the pros play flush and straight draws in no limit. If they are not the aggressor (and thus cannot semi-bluff them), they will often call them down one street and then dump them if they do not hit the flush or straight on the turn, because at that point the implied odds decrease and the Villain's SPR also decreases.

Remember, one of the good things about 2 pair is that even if you are behind, you usually have good outs even against big hands. So if you can turn 2 pair, it's a very good place to be.

But you have to be willing to bail on the flop if your opponents are making it too costly and/or making it clear that even hitting your draw isn't going to be good enough.

Chopper

05-17-2009, 03:03 AM

#42 (permalink)

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and, you dont want to be caught in the middle of two players going at it. one usually has you beat at the moment and the other is likely on a big draw.....not a place to get stuck with a one pair hand.

honestly, the main thing hinges on being oop, to me. when you hold something you cant play aggressively from oop, its better to lean towards folding. again, thats why being sooooted is so important for the redraws. if i hold 86s from the sb, and flop the 8, i am not playing the hand....its a c/f for me. if i hold Q8s and flop the Q, i am in better shape....and may peel, but i still dont like my hand if things heat up.

can you spot the common thing with 86s and Q8s? hint: its not the 8 and its not because both are suited. instead, they are also......? hint two: K7 is not in this group, even if it were suited.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-18-2009, 04:36 PM

#43 (permalink)

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"can you spot the common thing with 86s and Q8s?"

Well, I migth be wrong, but is there anything to do with straight possibilities? I mean, if you're playing these hands you're not looking for a pair, but for 2 pairs, a straigth draw or a flush draw.

I've downloaded the trial version of Holdem manager and I'm trying to see some of my leaks. I'm still getting used to the tool and variables. I intend to get a grasp on the trial version (15 days). If I like it, I will definitely purchase it (I'm looking at it as an investment. If I wait to buy with my BR it would take forever).

Seems to me a very nice tool. Even though my sample is small (I play in several poker rooms and dont know yet if the software can merge all the data) I can identify now some leaks. Apparently little pre flop position awareness is one of them.

In my larger sample I'm 14.3/3.8/0.91 (vpip/pfr/agg). What does it mean? I'm not aggressive, right? If you can post some stats of yours (basic numbers) would be a great parameter for me (those numbers have no meaning if you dont have a solid parameter). In my recent sessions (since applying the chart) I'm 18.4/8.2/2.75 (but is a very small sample).

I'm going to evaluate the software also in terms of tourney and SGs. I make more money in SGs, so it would be nice if the tool could provide me some feedback on that. I was intending to buy SGWiz, but since it is a tool for late game evaluation (push/fold), I'll download it later an use it exhaustively for 1 month. I might improve my SG game with the trial version.

Chopper

05-18-2009, 05:08 PM

#44 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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yes. its "connectivity." or, the ability to make straights. my generic rule of thumb is to play hands that are suited or connected from the sb for a limp....but, preferably both. i will play suited A's and pp's. but, i wont play T5, even if its suited. well, only if there are about 6 players in the pot, in which case i will play it for two pair/trips only.

HEM is a great investment. i think you made a smart choice in springing for it early, personally. i would post HEM #'s, but i have a very small base in there, and its mostly tourneys. i havent had it long. i will post PT2 #'s instead.

i'll go through them a bit in the post underneath it.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Chopper

05-18-2009, 05:23 PM

#45 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

here is what you are looking at...

i dont have a ton of hands in this db, either. this is about 3/4 of a month for the more active "grinders." i, however, play a load of other stuff, too. i play some NL, horse, sng's, and other tourneys. this is just the first couple months of this year, as i play most of my hands at another site that doesnt support poker tracking software.

its a bit of piecework, and sloppy. but, look at the top and you will see my general numbers. vpip, pfr, af, winrate, etc.

23/15/2.3 is "ok," but still a bit tight, imo. generally speaking, you want your vpip and pfr to run in a ratio closer to 3:2...15/10, 25/18. so, i am in that range. i feel i am raising and 3betting enough.

look at the attempt to steal blinds number. mine is 31%. thats kind of there, but a little tight, too. i would like to see 35-40%, personally. but, under 30% is too tight, imo, too. we should be using and abusing position, and i do "ok" with it, but not great.

went to showdown will be far higher than NL games. mine is 35%.....in NL i would be a total station. in LHE, i am about right, imo. it pays to be a station with hands like middle pair in HU pots. TP w/o a great kicker also should not be folded in a HU pot. and, honestly, i doubt you should fold it too often in a 3way pot if you are last to act and never forced to call two bets cold.

winning at showdown has always been in the low 50's for me. i read somewhere that if it is higher than 55%, you are not getting enough value out of your marginal hands. that was a NL guide to PT, though.

winrate is total meh. small sample, so i dont put a lot of stock in it. but, i should remain a winner at this level. i would like to hit 4+, but i dont know that i am that good post flop.

under the winrate/general area, but right up against it, are my position numbers. look at those for a second.

first thing i notice is the "overall" number at the bottom. i only cold call raises one tenth of one percent of the time. REMEMBER that. 3bet or fold. dont cold call raises. you will see where i do it, though....on the button.....and likely there is another in there with me that called the raise first.

for the bigger sample, look from position 3 to the button. i am 17/13 from utg at a 6max table. but, there are some full ring games in there. the numbers i generally see, from me are, 15/15 ish. dont limp from utg in 6max games.

i start to loosen up as i get closer to the button. but, i am still rock ass tight, apparently, when on the button. i should be more like 35/25ish. but, i am not even close. and, you can see i tend to overlimp from the button more than any other position. i go from 21/17 in the CO to 25/19 on the button.

anyway, thats the jist of some basic parameters. you can find much more detailed stuff with a little searching. hopefully, that can get you started.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-18-2009, 07:40 PM

#46 (permalink)

Full House

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

winning at showdown has always been in the low 50's for me. i read somewhere that if it is higher than 55%, you are not getting enough value out of your marginal hands. that was a NL guide to PT, though.

I'm the last guy to ask about PT stats, but I think I can offer a little common sense on this one.

Winning at showdown is related to pot size. Essentially, if your percentage is lower, it means that you are making a lot of calls on the river with marginal hands, calling a lot of bluffs, making crying calls, etc. And that can be fine, if the pots are big enough to justify that sort of play. (Though, of course, I am an advocate even then of being more selective about it and at least sometimes being willing to fold hands on the river that are clearly beaten.)

But if your average pot size goes down, your winning at showdown number needs to go up. Because that means you are no longer getting as good pot odds on those calls with marginal hands, calls of potential bluffs, and crying calls with good probable second bets hands.

So I would watch winning at showdown in relation to average pot size and track that relationship over time to evaluate the winning at showdown number.

Of course, I'm just a live player who records his results in spiral notebooks, so what do I know?

Chopper

05-18-2009, 08:46 PM

#47 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

ive never seen that correlation talked about. its an interesting one.

however, i wonder...

if pot sizes are big, and you are calling light, then you will miss more showdowns than you drag. you may still show profit, but your % will be way down....perhaps under 50%.

for me, i tend to also watch "win when seeing flop." it gives me a better idea of how successful any flop and turn aggression are working. i have seen plenty of players that carry WSF%'s over 45, but their W$SD% is under 50%. they are profitable because they are winning all their pots before the river. if anyone is strong enough to call them down, these players are likely to lose. (coincidentally, these players do better in NL games).

mine have never run above 35ish for "seeing flop" and never below 52ish for "winning sd." its just my "style." and, as long as i am profitable, i dont care to change it much. some things i can fix, others i dont waste too much time worrying about. however, i WILL study what means what because it can teach me how to attack another players weakness when i build up the hands against him.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-19-2009, 12:25 AM

#48 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Netherlands

Posts: 265

Nice stats...

I had my first session using the HUD today. After a bad run of cards (30 hands without entering a pot), the game was nice. I'm still getting used to the huge amount of numbers, but its nice. Is far easier to tell if someone has something or is just C-betting or bluffing. It feels like I was kind of blind all this time.

My game is very little sensitive to position. I'm using that chart and the ranges for late position are slightly wider than recommended for early postiion. I dont steal from the button as well. Basically, I'll raise if I had good cards because the BB usually calls a single bet at my tables. But I'll pay more attention on that...I fell i'm too tigth.

Chopper

05-19-2009, 01:04 AM

#49 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

couple things:

- loosen up as you get more comfortable, not before. it will kill you if you open up because you read an article/post that said you are too tight.....all in good time.

- like we said way back up in the beginning of the thread, focus on basic concepts first. things like building a pot when you have big draws and protecting it when you are vulnerable are key concepts that, imo, are more important that watching your stats. your stats should be used to validate your progress, not distract you from the basics of limit hold'em.

try to stick to the basics, for now. you will start to feel "frisky" when your mind tells you to make a move. use the stats to see how you are learning on the fly.

that said, you can post some hands now, too. and, i expect to see you do so. that way we can dive into some of these specific concepts quickly.

oh, one quick word about your "HUD." dont clog it up with numbers and colors. it will make it harder to watch the action and do your number one duty.......taking notes.

here is a screen shot of mine. my numbers are vpip/pfr/af/hands played across the top. and, attempt to steal/cbet/X/X across the bottom. i cant even tell you the others on the 2nd row anymore because i dont use them. (edit: actually, there was only a third number across the bottom and i think it was c/r numbers. in LHE, i do like to see how often a player will win SDs when he c/r's. it tells me how likely he is to be bluffing. if the number is close to 100% winning when check/raising, i know to take him very seriously.)

if you want more details on stealing, just hover over it. the pop up screen will show you what position he steals from AND how often he folds to others' steals. same with cbetting. there is no need to have both steal and fold to steal numbers up when the pop up will tell you both. it just wastes space, imo.

also note that the tables i was sitting on were starting to look nice and juicy. i sat in, for 5 minutes, just to take a screenshot. and, i immediately noticed the table on the right cold calling raises. i went on a minirush over there and made $5 quickly. look at their stats...they are all very loose (green is over 33% vpip). look at the table on the left. i have a couple loosies on my left (i am pfsbulldawg) that i can likely isolate. and, i have a couple other tighter players on my right. well, skip one and then there are two in a row that are orange, or semi-loose. the neat thing about this is that i would look to really steal from the CO if the player to my immediate left shows me he folds when i raise. if he calls two bets cold a couple times, i tighten up my steal attempts since i cant buy the button from him.....which pisses me off when they start to hit ragged 2pr hands on my premiums. lol.

but, when using a HUD, dont be afraid to watch for about 20 hands and leave if you dont like the table. the only time i stay is if it appears i have the "lucky seat" and start off on a rush. i am looking for tight players on my left and loose, or aggressive, players on my right. table and seat selection are VERY important.....always.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Raoni_Poker

05-19-2009, 08:29 PM

#50 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Netherlands

Posts: 265

I have a nice hand to post here, but I'm trying to find a converter (I sent an email to support here in order to find out the problem I had in converting the hand from HEM).

My HUD by default has a little more numbers on the 2nd line, like Agg factor, Flop CBet and Fold to CBet. I'm still adjusting myself to get the most of the tool, so I may try a few changes on that.

Nice example on your screenshot. I usually associated VPIP with aggression, but it is much related to loosiness/tightness.

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