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Anosmic

10-18-2006, 08:01 PM Post subject: Set on flush board

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

With so many players in I just didn't feel I could bet my set here, it's not going to protect the hand from anyone with a reasonably high club in their hand.

Calling seemed fine since I think if the board pairs I'll be fine, but I didn't want to bet it up until then.

Limit Hold'em CryptoLogic ($1/$2)
Converted by FTRConv
10-handed

StacksBB: $26.50
UTG: $98.42
UTG+1: $23
UTG+2: $41.25
MP1: $63
Hero: $46
MP3: $50
CO: $80
BTN: $44.75
SB: $85

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with 8

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls, MP3 checks, CO checks, BTN folds, SB raises, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls,

Flop:(11SB) 8

(5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls,

Turn:(15.5BB) 7

(5 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, SB calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls,

River:(19.5BB) T

(4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, SB calls, Hero calls, MP3 folds,
Final Pot: 22.5 BB

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

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Nehmer

10-18-2006, 08:24 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Decatur, IL

Posts: 666

You have to raise this flop. You almost definately have the best hand and even if you don't, you have lots of outs to the boat. Given the way that you played the flop/turn, I would raise the river. You know that any flush draw missed, so the only thing you are really worrying about is a flopped flush and you are up against that a lot less often than you are up against a pair of aces/2-pair/set of 4s/etc...

outphase

10-19-2006, 12:23 AM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 949

you have to raise some street here, i lean on flop/turn more than river (since someone called before you).

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

arkitekton

10-19-2006, 05:32 AM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

Raising the turn feels right. If you're behind you have 10 outs; if ahead you obviously wants as much money in the pot as you can get. Doubt you're going to fold anyone with the single K or Q of clubs, though I suppose the Jc might decide to quit if you raise the turn and the CO reraises, though for that to help the CO would have to be looking at something like pocket fours and the small blind, given the preflop betting, pocket Jacks where one of them is a club--hardly a combination worth bothering with... Another virtue of raising the turn is that even when you're behind you may not get 3 bet. If the CO is looking at two clubs without the K or Q he may be very reluctant to keep raising, since you may well have two clubs including one of those cards.

I'll guess you're ahead as of the flop. Most of the time a three flush on the flop does not give someone a flush, and at least at first it's better not to assume that it does. Further, if the CO is any kind of halfway decent player he isn't looking at the nut flush nor, probably, the second nut flush. With his good position relative to the flop bettor, he should be waiting for the turn to start raising. Yet another, if subtler, reason to be raising the turn.

dsaxton

10-20-2006, 04:13 AM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Arlington, VA

Posts: 2,667

I don't play full ring, but I would raise preflop. Having limped, I would raise the flop. There is a good chance your hand is currently best, and if it isn't, your equity is highest on the flop against a flush.

Even if you knew at least one player had a flopped flush, given that you have multiway action, you might even be correct in building a pot simply on the value of your draw alone.

Xanadu

10-20-2006, 07:57 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

Having plugged a few combinations of 4 reasonable hands to be facing here into pokerstove, if no-one has a flush, and there is a flush draw, you are around 50% to win. If someone has a flush, you are about 20% in the case where someone has Aces up, but are closer to 25% otherwise, even with a set of 4s taking 2 of your outs to the boat away. 5-way pot, this is certainly a value raise on the flop. I kind of like the call/3-bet line. This also allows you to see how CO responds to your 3-bet. I don't like raising the flop right away, because I want to keep some hands in if possible. The hands that can draw to beat you mostly aren't going to fold anyway, but some pairs and straight draws that you don't fear might just call more bets if sucked in gradually.

And I think this is a borderline raise preflop with the position and action at FR. This largely depends on the cold-calling tendencies of the players to your left. If they do it a lot, just call. If you can chase some hands, raising is a playable option that may be superior.

Ragnar4

10-21-2006, 08:42 AM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

What???

The only hand you are even remotely worried about here? SB with AA. Your raise and his flatcall on the flop cries out "I don't have a set"

Even with a flush on board. You have (1) 8 3 (A) and 3 (4) 7 outs on the flop, (14.7% to win) and then you have 10 outs on the turn to the same full house (22%) which means you're going to have a full house, or better by the river 36.7% of the time!!! Your bets and raises only represented 20% of the pot. This is what we call overlay, and HERE it was a gold mine. When you see this hand, you commit to the river. Count your outs, and realize that 36.7% of the time, you're gonna see a board pair, that makes you nearly unbeatable. When you stand to win more than your fair share of the time (20% ) you can actually safely assume that for every dollar that ends up in the pot, (subtract 20% from 36.7% = 16.7%) you make 16.7 cents. Win or lose the hand, you earn that money. In limit that's a HUGE +EV. The more dollars into the pot, the more money you stand to make.

In this situation my Raise button would be stuck on autodrive until the money I'm putting into the pot is less than my chance to win. In this case, even if two guys fold while you're kicking it into overdrive, you still only represent 33.3% of the pot, slim, but overlay nonetheless. You can still raise with a clear conscience. Then at heads up. You check call. You make it by catching a board pair on the river, you keep on betting and raising, they'll never suspect you for a set at that point... You kept betting and raising into a flush!!! If you don't catch the board pair, You quietly check/call one bet as a crying call because you have a hand that some share of equity in the monster pot you just created.

Malmuth and Mason talk about this all the time in SSH. You stand to win that pot more than your fair share of the time, and that means go ahead and get your money in there.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

arkitekton

10-21-2006, 12:06 PM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

Quote:

Even with a flush on board. You have (1) 8 3 (A) and 3 (4) 7 outs on the flop, (14.7% to win) and then you have 10 outs on the turn to the same full house (22%) which means you're going to have a full house, or better by the river 36.7% of the time!!!

the math is really

7/47 + (40/47 * 10/46) = ~33.4% of the time

Ragnar4

10-21-2006, 02:12 PM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

7/47 (14.89361%) + 10/46 (21.73913%) I don't know why you are multiplying the result by 40/47... I think you're assuming that the moment you catch your Fullhouse the hand ends right there. It doesn't. That's the only reason you'd have a limiting qualifier (40/47)

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

Xanadu

10-21-2006, 03:37 PM

#10 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Ark is correct. The 40/47 keeps from double counting when a card comes that would improve your hand on both the turn and the river. It is simpler to just calculate the chance that you miss both streets and subtract from 1:

1-(40/47)*(36/46)=.334

Ragnar4

10-22-2006, 12:42 AM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

Ok.. well there's still overlay in this situation...

Boy, though, seems like that might plug up a bit of a leak in my game. I was wondering why I had a hard time making money in some marginal drawing situations where I was calculating both the turn and the river for my final % and going from there.... Why does it have to be so stupid. Guess I have ANOTHER chart to memorize.

Why though would you worry about double counting that card? If it hits on the Turn, you aren't worried about it coming on the river because you've declared yourself winner of the hand and you're going to bet and raise all the way down...

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

Xanadu

10-22-2006, 04:27 PM

#12 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

You don't want to double count it because you will get too high of a chance that you will improve. As you can see in this case, with a good draw like a set or flush or OESD, double counting by counting the times you hit on both streets puts the #s off by about 10%. Although this usually wouldn't change your decision, at times you might think you have a slim edge for a call when you really don't.

Ragnar4

10-23-2006, 04:22 AM

#13 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

10% of the time? Looked like 3% to me....

edit- Are you suggesting that you're double counting the same card? or are you suggesting that your double counting the hand you're trying to make.. Ie double pairing the board for two full houses, or a full house and quads, or ending up with runner runner spade when two spades hit the flop and you only needed one?

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

mike4066

10-24-2006, 10:00 PM

#14 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2003

Posts: 1,943

/simple answer to this post..

put more bets in!
I slow down when they CR on the big streets.

I'm sure there good logic somewhere in this post, but i'm too lazy to read.

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