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Saving a few bets or missing a few bets?

  
 
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lonnie
Old 11-17-2004, 03:38 AM     Post subject: Saving a few bets or missing a few bets? #1 (permalink)  
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ROCK is, well, your typical 1/2 15%VPIP, 5% PFR rock.

Anytime I see a 3 bet on the 1/2 games, I immediately go on the defensive with the rocks, they are usually showing you AA or KK at showdown.

POKERSTARS GAME #863005605: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2004/11/16 - 03:57:27 (ET)

XXXXX: posts small blind $0.50
XXXXX: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lhoney2 [Qh Qd]
XXXXX: folds
XXXXX: folds
XXXXX: folds
Lonnie: raises $1 to $2
ROCK: raises $1 to $3
XXXXX: folds
XXXXX: folds
XXXXX: folds
XXXXX: calls $2
lhoney2: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Kh Qs Kc]

Could the flop be any better? How can I get more chips out of this guy? I'll just play it straight so I don't tip my hand on the turn.

XXXXX: checks
Lonnie: bets $1
ROCK: calls $1
XXXXX: folds
*** TURN *** [Kh Qs Kc] [Ac]

This is a BAD card for me...It's hard to put the rock on KK with two kings on the flop, but it's not so hard to put the rock on AA AKs or AKo. As a matter of fact, he almost MUST have one of these hands.

Lonnie: bets $2
ROCK: raises $2 to $4
Lonnie: calls $2
*** RIVER *** [Kh Qs Kc Ac] [8d]

At this point I figure there is a very good chance I am beat, but I throw another bet down anyway...I can't check the river on my boat, just in case...

Lonnie: bets $2
ROCK: raises $2 to $4
Lonnie: calls $2


Was this a good read on my opp? Am I giving this guy too much credit? I thought this was a very interesting hand, given the range of hands I thought my opp would 3 bet with PF. Did I play this one well?
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mike4066
Old 11-17-2004, 03:44 AM #2 (permalink)  
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as long as you trust your read your fine.
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zenbitz
Old 11-17-2004, 03:58 AM #3 (permalink)  
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if he is playing 15% not including blinds, then he is playing quite a bit more than AA/KK/AK - but he is probably limping with them. About the worst hand he has is like pocket 10s or ATs.

But given the raise on the turn, I agree he prolly had AA or AK.
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lonnie
Old 11-17-2004, 04:03 AM #4 (permalink)  
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if he is playing 15% not including blinds, then he is playing quite a bit more than AA/KK/AK - but he is probably limping with them. About the worst hand he has is like pocket 10s or ATs.
The question is, what is he willing to 3-bet? He is a 5% pre flop raiser...
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zenbitz
Old 11-17-2004, 04:17 AM #5 (permalink)  
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5% of hands is like ATs, pocket 8s. If he's willing to PFR, he's probably willing to 3-bet. I mean, the guy clearly has some sort of clue.

You gotta realize that AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AKs is only 1% of all hands.
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Nehmer
Old 11-17-2004, 04:38 AM #6 (permalink)  
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You gotta realize that AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AKs is only 1% of all hands.
I don't think this is right at all. Since you have a 1/220 chance of getting any given pocket pair, that leaves you with a 4/220 chance of getting AA/KK/QQ/JJ, which is about 2%, then you add in AKo(which most people play exactly the same as AKs) and you have about 3% of hands. You figure somebody that only raises preflop about 5% of the time is raising almost only with those given hands, AQ sometimes and TT or AJ occasionally. I would say it is very easy to put a player like this on AA/KK/QQ/AK anytime they 3-bet. Since QQ isn't possible, that only leaves 3 hands, all of which have Lonnie beat.
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mike4066
Old 11-17-2004, 04:43 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehmer
Quote:
You gotta realize that AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AKs is only 1% of all hands.
I don't think this is right at all. Since you have a 1/220 chance of getting any given pocket pair, that leaves you with a 4/220 chance of getting AA/KK/QQ/JJ, which is about 2%, then you add in AKo(which most people play exactly the same as AKs) and you have about 3% of hands. You figure somebody that only raises preflop about 5% of the time is raising almost only with those given hands, AQ sometimes and TT or AJ occasionally. I would say it is very easy to put a player like this on AA/KK/QQ/AK anytime they 3-bet. Since QQ isn't possible, that only leaves 3 hands, all of which have Lonnie beat.
very nicely put.
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lonnie
Old 11-17-2004, 04:47 AM #8 (permalink)  
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5% of hands is like ATs, pocket 8s. If he's willing to PFR, he's probably willing to 3-bet. I mean, the guy clearly has some sort of clue.

You gotta realize that AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AKs is only 1% of all hands.
Faulty math aside, couple the read with the fact that he raised the turn. Now where are you at? Still got him on 88? The only slim chance that I was giving myself was AQ, but that was not likely.

Consider the turn raise - if this guy is a thinking player, then what is he putting me on? If he doesn't have AK AA KK KQ then he is beat.

The preflop read + turn raise + thinking player (this is an assumption) = bad news.
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elipsesjeff
Old 11-17-2004, 04:51 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 First, I'm capping Preflop.

On the flop you are in a tough position because if you try and check raise you risk losing a bet, if you bet you may not get raised. I would play it the way you did on the flop.

I'm raising the turn. Just because he raised you doesnt mean he has the AK, rock or not. He could only have a K and tryed slow playing it. The only way you know is if you raise him. If he caps, you check call the river and you payed the same. If he just calls then you bet/raise the river.

Another reason to cap the flop is that you are able to represent a King and/or AK if it comes. I think you missed a bet.


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lonnie
Old 11-17-2004, 04:54 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Jeff -
Tell me specifically what hand you can put him on to 3 bet. You say maybe he has a K. Does he 3 bet KJs or KJo?

I have customized my game to the 1/2 level at this point. I found that playing my cookie cutter game was not working with these guys.

I was capping QQ occasionally at the .50/1.00 level. I found the 3 bets in the 1/2 party game to be much tighter. I will still cap QQ in a loose game, but not in a locked down one. There was one fish on this table.
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zenbitz
Old 11-17-2004, 05:03 AM #11 (permalink)  
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First off - I said that by the turn bet he has at least AK, and you should fold.

Second, I love it when people check my math... in this case you caught a big error in my spread sheet. I counted only 6 AAs, not 12., because I didn't count alternate combos (I..e, As Ah and Ah As)... so he could have AKos or TT or something.

Now I have to go fix my math in the other thread...
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 11-17-2004, 05:15 AM #12 (permalink)  
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my guess is they had aces or kings. they smooth call the flop, knowing you will bet again on the turn, where they can reraise to extract bets.

since you know he is a rock, you can be almost certain he has at AA, KK, or maybe AKs. if he is a passive rock, he would probably just limp or call with AKs instead of raising. QQ and lower and it would be too weak to reraise with. the thing to notice here is that lonnie raised first, and the rock reraised. with only 5% PFR, it's very likely that they had KK or AA.

personally i woulda check/called the river. they raised you on the turn which represents a king or pocket aces which beat your hand. the reraise on the river from a rock means it wasn't just an ace with a good kicker. of course you woudn't know that during the hand, but with that information we can better guess what they had.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 11-17-2004, 05:16 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 Given the way you played its hard to put him on any hand. You can practically narrow it down to high pocket pair or an Ace. I can see him 3-betting preflop with AQs. When he reraised you preflop he assumed you didnt have AK because if you did you would have capped.

He could have possibly thought you were bluffing or you had just a Queen, and when his Ace popped he raised you figuring he had the goods. If you re-raise him here you give him the impression you have at least a King, if not more. At least you know where you stand in the hand if you raise him.

If he has AK here you are paying him off.


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lonnie
Old 11-17-2004, 05:40 AM #14 (permalink)  
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This was a 1 BB mistake on my part...this is such an odd situation it's acceptable.

Correct line:

Preflop: Capping or not is debatable.
Flop: bet, cap if possible.
Turn: bet, call
River: check, call

BTW, he had KK at show down. Flopped quad K's. Ouch.
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Fnord
Old 11-17-2004, 07:37 AM #15 (permalink)  
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If you were really amazing, you could check/fold the turn. A really good player bet/folds the turn. Otherwise, calling it down after the turn is fine.

Consider the rock's pre-flop 3-bet range:
AA/KK/QQ/AK
some rocks add JJ
some will cold call with AK (doesn't play well against QQ/JJ/TT/99 as you lose a lot set vs TPTK.)
3-betting AQ/TT is getting non-rocky.

If he's a rock and you're sure, don't cap pre-flop.

On the flop you're ahead of AA/AK/AQ/JJ/TT and can rule out another QQ. I can see all 3 calling the flop.
On the turn you're behind everything except AQ/JJ/TT. I don't see any of them being 3-bet often enough and raising the turn after calling the flop to call down here. Remember the wait for the turn to raise is the way a weak player likes to play his strongest post-flop hands. One hell of a laydown.

Betting the river is bad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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ChezJ
Old 11-17-2004, 10:02 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Remember the wait for the turn to raise is the way a weak player likes to play his strongest post-flop hands.
Apparently it worked!
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mike4066
Old 11-17-2004, 10:15 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenbitz
5% of hands is like ATs, pocket 8s. If he's willing to PFR, he's probably willing to 3-bet. I mean, the guy clearly has some sort of clue.

You gotta realize that AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AKs is only 1% of all hands.
5% of hands put him around
TT+,AJ,KQ

AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT, AKs,AKo,AQs,AQo,AJs, KQs
Thats 11 hands, there are 169 possible starting hands.
Those hands alone if raised from any position could account for 6% + of hands.
11/169 = 0.065
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Fnord
Old 11-17-2004, 11:05 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChezJ
Apparently it worked!
Not really, the Ace + obvious monster line spooked off some of his action. He missed a chance to at least cap the flop and probably still put in a raise on the turn.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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lonnie
Old 11-19-2004, 08:44 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Using PokerTracker to sniff out the KK....

CallingStation is a calling station in PT. 188 hands, 27.7% VP$IP, 4.79% PFR, total agg of .63.

Another case where I have a real good idea exactly what my opp is holding based on his PT stats. His 3-bet of the preflop and turn are screaming KK or AA! When the K hits the turn, I shift gears. KK gives him the boat, AA splits the pot anyway.

POKERSTARS GAME : HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2)

Table 'Helenos' Seat #7 is the button

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Lonnie [Ah Ac]
WhoCares: folds
WhoCares: folds
WhoCares: folds
WhoCares: calls $1
Lonnie: raises $1 to $2
WhoCares: folds
WhoCares: calls $2
WhoCares: folds
CallingStation: raises $1 to $3
WhoCares: folds
WhoCares: calls $2
Lonnie: raises $1 to $4
Betting is capped
WhoCares: folds
CallingStation: calls $1
WhoCares: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [3c Jh 3d]
CallingStation: bets $1
WhoCares: calls $1
Lonnie: raises $1 to $2
CallingStation: raises $1 to $3
WhoCares: folds
Lonnie: raises $1 to $4
Betting is capped
CallingStation: calls $1
*** TURN *** [3c Jh 3d] [Kh]
CallingStation: bets $2
Lonnie: calls $2
*** RIVER *** [3c Jh 3d Kh] [Jc]
CallingStation: bets $2
Lonnie: calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CallingStation: shows [Kd Ks] (a full house, Kings full of Jacks)
Lonnie: mucks hand
CallingStation collected $31 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $32 | Rake $1
Board [3c Jh 3d Kh Jc]
Seat 1: WhoCares folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: WhoCares folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: WhoCares folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Lonnie mucked [Ah Ac] - two pair, Aces and Jacks
Seat 5: WhoCares folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: WhoCares folded before Flop
Seat 7: WhoCares (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: CallingStation (small blind) showed [Kd Ks] and won ($31) with a full house, Kings full of Jacks
Seat 9: WhoCares (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 10: WhoCares folded before Flop (didn't bet)
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Fnord
Old 11-24-2004, 12:32 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Well played. Pot is too big to fold, he could have AK/QQ or you could catch an Ace.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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