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elipsesjeff
Old 12-09-2005, 07:05 PM     Post subject: Running Bad #1 (permalink)  
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 After having some decent conversations with Fnord and Koolmoe in Vent the past couple days, I made an important decision.

Well, over the last 16,000 hands or so I've managed to drop about 200 BB, and I'm really tired of the variance that 30/60 is giving me. Thus, from this point on I'm going to be playing the majority of my time in the 15/30 ring game.

I'm not done completely with 30/60; I'll still play a couple tables here and there on premium nights once I get some confidence back. My winrate at 30/60 is 1/4 of what it was at 15/30 for the same number of hands, so its only realistic to go back down. I've gone through my database the past 3 or 4 days and found I'm not playing all that bad. My blind play rocks and all my other stats look normal, I'm just running absolutely horrible. Lets hope I can get this thing turned around.


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StinkyBeaver
Old 12-10-2005, 12:03 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I have no idea of how terrible it must be to drop something like 12K, however you mention that your blind play rocks and so...

What I mean is that if you think this is in the cards and not in your play, then why drop down cards will even out eventually.

I understand that theres quite a noteable skill difference between these limits thus your oeverall winrate would be lower, but is your sample size enough to say anything at all.

In the end it should be the enjoyment of the game that drives you, and I mean that also for pro's, so if you have more fun playing 15/30 then thats all the reason needed to drop down.

I really hope everything smoothens out for ya one way or another.
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-10-2005, 12:16 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StinkyBeaver
I have no idea of how terrible it must be to drop something like 12K, however you mention that your blind play rocks and so...

What I mean is that if you think this is in the cards and not in your play, then why drop down cards will even out eventually.

I understand that theres quite a noteable skill difference between these limits thus your oeverall winrate would be lower, but is your sample size enough to say anything at all.

In the end it should be the enjoyment of the game that drives you, and I mean that also for pro's, so if you have more fun playing 15/30 then thats all the reason needed to drop down.

I really hope everything smoothens out for ya one way or another.
Thanks for the support.

I'm moving down for 2 reasons: I was making more at 15/30 than I could at 30/60 and thats through a sample of 30k hands each. I'm running bad mostly but i also worry my play might be off as well, so until i get that exactly figured out 15/30 should be more my style.


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StinkyBeaver
Old 12-10-2005, 05:50 AM #4 (permalink)  
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This leads me to what I think is the most anoying thing about poker.

While 30K is a decent samplesize is not much at all in the long run. So how do you go on from downswings when steppin up in limits where you have no clue wether you are a winner or not..?

It is the most unconfident feeling in poker to play a new limit and not know where you stand. On one hand you have this sample size saying something about the two winrates from these games on the other hand we both know that the samplesizes here are quite small and that no statements can be made for sure.

Confidence is a must in poker so I understand you. I know you have climbed the ladder from the small stakes pretty recently, did you ever hit any downswing that made you stop or drop down on the way or did you just stick with it..?

For my part I had a bad start at 3/6 6max. Adjusting to SH games by myself ended up in spewing and trying to push people off their hands. Also my Handreading skills from Fullring was of little use and I found myself guesing all the time. After 13K hands I had dropped around 250BB's. Lots where variance and lots wher TILT. I stepped down and recbuild BR and confidence. My second try seems to do it I'm winning after 30K hands so not much but way better than first try.

I'd like to know wether you had any requirments while moving up or did you go only by BR management..?
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koolmoe
Old 12-19-2005, 07:33 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I've been on a similar slide. Though not my biggest in terms of BB, definitely my biggest in terms of $$. I am now solidly under 2 BB/100 at 15/30 (<sigh>) after running over 3BB/100 through 20K hands. I'm still significantly +, so I guess life could be worse. When I moved up, I told myself I'd be quite happy to wion at 1.5BB/100, so I guess I should be happy with my results to date.

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StinkyBeaver
Old 12-19-2005, 09:28 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Yeah it's like when you have won a lot youreally want to believe that it's all b/c of good play and not running good.

Rarely do we count on "paying" some of our winnings back. And 6 days in red is A LOT. I've just managed to come out of a 200BB slide that lastet 10 days or so with breakeven and losing play.

Anyways man 2BB/100 is super..!!
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koolmoe
Old 12-19-2005, 11:04 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Fortunately none of the 6 days have been worse than -40 BB, and it's coming immediately after a +70 BB day.
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-19-2005, 11:50 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by koolmoe
Fortunately none of the 6 days have been worse than -40 BB, and it's coming immediately after a +70 BB day.
I'm at 5/10 6 max right now and I'm loving it. These guys are so much worse than I remembered. I think I was both running bad and giving these guys too much credit. I'm hoping to be back at 15/30 in just a couple weeks.


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jmontis
Old 01-03-2006, 05:03 PM #9 (permalink)  
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ya, my first time playing 5-10 ring was an eye opener. I could not believe how terribly loose/bad the players were, practically giving away their money (on vcpoker anyhow).

I can't wait to go to vegas in 2 weeks

Once I get back into playing, i'll probably spend a long time at 5-10 before I move up...
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elipsesjeff
Old 01-03-2006, 05:14 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 With table selection, the games arent so different from each other.

BTW, I'm at 10/20 now.


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StinkyBeaver
Old 01-05-2006, 08:25 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
With table selection, the games arent so different from each other.

BTW, I'm at 10/20 now.
This was also my thoughts after playing my first hands at 10/20 this tuesday.

I saw a lot of bad stuff and the usual overplaying I see from 5/10. I think what seperates the two limits is how the good players play. There seems to be a bounch of 30/20 players whom I didn't see making awful mistakes.

I played very conservative and stayed out of the marginal hands as I was not suposed to be at those tables in the first place. (You know me and my conservative 1000BB bankroll not taking any chances bla bla bla.)

But with PE running it was just to tempting, when I managed to find a few good tables.

After these hands I'm thinkin about changing my laggy style abit and tighten up. I believe that it's very possible to do 2+BB/100 from a more tight style and exclude the marginal hands that I don't even now wether I'm a good enough postflop player to play at all.

So how tight can we go in a 6max game u think 19/12..? With the aggresivness out there do you think we could play a very direct style without too many bluffs, and only semibluff and such. I don't think I'll be this tight at all since it would be a complete change of my game. However I'd like some thoughts about how a very conservative player with aggrssion would do in these games.?

I saw a Highstakes forum post on 2+2. some guy had datamined the 50/100 and 100/200 suprisingly a 14-15/10/1,7 guy was doing pretty good like 1,5BB/100 over 15K hands.

Sure the best strategy is very dependent on the table lineup and I'll be focusing on this also, but I need to rethink my opinion on tight conservative style I believe.

Damn I ended up writin a novell sry guys.
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pokerfanatic
Old 01-05-2006, 08:53 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I know all about running bad just talk to me on vent about it if you want
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

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elipsesjeff
Old 01-05-2006, 09:49 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StinkyBeaver


I saw a lot of bad stuff and the usual overplaying I see from 5/10. I think what seperates the two limits is how the good players play. There seems to be a bounch of 30/20 players whom I didn't see making awful mistakes.
What keeps these guys from moving up and getting better is their egos thinking they are always right. I saw a thread on 2+2 today about a guy raising KQo in teh BB after 2 limpers and the SB joins in.


Quote:

After these hands I'm thinkin about changing my laggy style abit and tighten up. I believe that it's very possible to do 2+BB/100 from a more tight style and exclude the marginal hands that I don't even now wether I'm a good enough postflop player to play at all.
Most certainly.

Quote:
So how tight can we go in a 6max game u think 19/12..? With the aggresivness out there do you think we could play a very direct style without too many bluffs, and only semibluff and such. I don't think I'll be this tight at all since it would be a complete change of my game. However I'd like some thoughts about how a very conservative player with aggrssion would do in these games.?
I disagree. I think the tightest should be around 22 VPIPish or so, 19 is borderline too tight for me in a full ring game. I'm sure you could make money being a 19 vpip but you're missing out on a ton of value not opening up.

Quote:
I saw a Highstakes forum post on 2+2. some guy had datamined the 50/100 and 100/200 suprisingly a 14-15/10/1,7 guy was doing pretty good like 1,5BB/100 over 15K hands.
This is such a small sample though. As soon as he gets pegged as being a tighty he'll get played back at by everyone as they all usually datamine. I ran 2 BB/100 at 30/60 for 20k hands, but ended up .75 over 27k. But I see where you are getting at.


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