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silverfist
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02-10-2006, 04:57 AM
Post subject: River Raise
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 341
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I'm still trying to decide whether or not I made the right play here. Remember, I don't think that this play will work. It only needs to work one time in about 7. I raise the river to isolate what is probably not a bluff, just in case it is. Huh? Well, I don't want to be overcalled with just my AK, and the raise is (intended) to prevent an overcall. However, if the original bettor is bluffing, I can win the whole pot. If I'm right one time in 7, this is a good play, though I'm not sure if I can even be that certain here (the 8 woke him up). Anywho, here's the play:
PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Preflop: Silverfist is MP1 with K , A.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, Silverfist raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.
Flop: (12.40 SB) 9, 4, 5 (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Silverfist bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.
Turn: (9.20 BB) 8 (6 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 folds, Silverfist calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls.
River: (13.20 BB) Q (4 players)
BB bets, Silverfist raises, CO folds, Button calls, BB calls.
Final Pot: 19.20 BB
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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That 8 definitely helped him. I don't think you get many people to fold for one bet here.
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Ltrain
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Miami, Florida
Posts: 514
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Given your thinking, raise the turn instead and hopefully take a free showdown if you don't hit the flush.
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"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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How often will the big blind bet the turn and river against multiple opponents when he's unwilling to call one more bet? Just fold.
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silverfist
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 341
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
How often will the big blind bet the turn and river against multiple opponents when he's unwilling to call one more bet? Just fold.
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I'm not trying to get him to fold, though. If he's bluffing, I have him actually beaten, since AK beats any bluff or ace-high hand. I'm trying to get the people behind me to fold. In this position, I have three choices:
1) Fold - Lose
2) Call - I'll get overcalled and lose
3) Raise - If the other players fold and he has A-high, I win, since my A-high is better.
So, if he has A-high 12% of the time or more, this is +EV. There are enough people out there who get agressive when they pick up a draw on the turn that 12% might be about right.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Raising here on either street is pretty bad. You want your opponents to stay in the pot on the turn so raising would be bad and on the river you're essentially bluffing into a field of 4 after someone else already bet.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
you're essentially bluffing into a field of 4 after someone else already bet.
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Exactly. Heads up, it may not be a bad play if he's capable of folding. But in a field that size you're sure to get called in at least one spot.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by silverfist
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
How often will the big blind bet the turn and river against multiple opponents when he's unwilling to call one more bet? Just fold.
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I'm not trying to get him to fold, though. If he's bluffing, I have him actually beaten, since AK beats any bluff or ace-high hand. I'm trying to get the people behind me to fold. In this position, I have three choices:
1) Fold - Lose
2) Call - I'll get overcalled and lose
3) Raise - If the other players fold and he has A-high, I win, since my A-high is better.
So, if he has A-high 12% of the time or more, this is +EV. There are enough people out there who get agressive when they pick up a draw on the turn that 12% might be about right. |
I don't see how you're possibly reading this guy for ace high here. What about his betting suggests he doesn't even have a pair?
And um, you do want him to fold, unless he is somehow capable of calling a river raise when he doesn't even have a pair.
You have nothing, and clearly the only way to win this pot is at a showdown (as his hand is clearly good enough to call one more bet on the river, especially against a river raise as nonsensical as this one), so fold. This play is a total waste of two bets.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by silverfist
I'm not trying to get him to fold, though. If he's bluffing, I have him actually beaten, since AK beats any bluff or ace-high hand. I'm trying to get the people behind me to fold. In this position, I have three choices:
1) Fold - Lose
2) Call - I'll get overcalled and lose
3) Raise - If the other players fold and he has A-high, I win, since my A-high is better.
So, if he has A-high 12% of the time or more, this is +EV. There are enough people out there who get agressive when they pick up a draw on the turn that 12% might be about right.
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You're under-estimating the chance of someone behind you calling with a pair or 3-betting a monster. Every time I've tried the raise with a marginal hand to isolate the river bet line (and I think I've found a couple good spots out of the very few times I've tried) it's always failed miserably. Online players are too call-happy, paranoid and distrustful.
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silverfist
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 341
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Good point, Fnord. I was trying to do the move from SSH page 302-303, which has an almost identical situation, but with only a 7.5BB pot. He says you are close to being able to raise on that one. This one was almost double that size, so I thought that might put me over the margin.
Anyway, I'll look for better opportunities. If it works one of the 7 times I try it, I'll let you know  .
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