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river pairs the board, we have overpair

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DrivingDog

09-21-2008, 05:32 PM Post subject: river pairs the board, we have overpair

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Hypothetical situations but ones that arise often enough to be worth analyzing I think. We raise :Kc: :Ks: from UTG+1. Fishy btn cold calls and BB calls (6.5 SB)

Flop is something like :Js: :Th:

. We bet and both villians call (9SB)

Turn is blank (say

). We bet, btn folds, and BB c/rs. Shit! (6.5 BB)

We call (7.5BB) because although we are probably behind he might be semi-bluffing and we have 10 outs vs. two pair. Only hand that has us crushed is 98, but we're not in good shape vs. a set either of course.

Assume BB leads the river 100% of the time (8.5BB). What do we do on the river if...

1) River pairs the board (e.g.,

) and doesn't complete any FD?

2) The FD completes and board pairs (say

)?

3) The river otherwise seems to hit villian's likely range hard (say :Tc

?

4) The river hits us and completes FD (:Kh

?

Here's my thoughts.
1) Raise/fold to 3bet. We'll get crying calls from three pair hands like JT, and will only get 3bet if we're beat.
2) Raise/fold to 3bet. Same logic. Also can consider just calling if villian likes to c/r semi-bluff the turn.
3) Fold. That's got to be a big part of his pf range. But R/F might be ok too?
4) Raise/call 3bet. Not cap? Hmmm...not really sure. Read dependent?

Anyone think differently?

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

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asdpikas

09-21-2008, 10:41 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2007

Posts: 1,056

wow,

i just call on all of them except #4 where i raise/call like you say
I mean, BB can c/r turn w AJ or KJ or QJ or so many things, and we are getting decent odds with a hand that beats 20+% of his range (at least).
Still, if i raise on 1,2,3, i will really be in bad shape when behind, and some of his bluffs (if he semibluffs turn and dont hit river) wont pay my raise. So i just take the conservative route (not meaning the correct one)

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DrivingDog

10-03-2008, 11:38 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

I think the key is you have to be willing to fold to a 3bet when the board pairs. Almost no-one will fold two pair to a river raise even when the river counterfeits their hand but by the same token almost no-one will 3bet bluff the river.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Chopper

10-03-2008, 02:52 PM

#4 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

i cant make this laydown, yet, even in situation 3. however, i just call in 3. but, i am inclined to raise 1, 2, and 4 as well. i cant see calling a 3bet in 1 and 2, but i can in 4, but, against certain villains, i can see capping in 4, too.

the 7 pairing, doesnt really scare me off value raising the river, but i dont like the turn c/r one bit. at my level, it means one pair hands are beat, but i cant rule out semibluffs/scared 88-99,QT+ hands.

the more i think about it, i maybe should find a fold in 3, but i just cant, personally. its 8.5:1. it cant be a huge mistake to pay it off. i'm sure i make plenty larger mistakes in other spots.

good post, tho. i like these multiple scenario quizzes a lot, and wish we could see them more often. (i'm just not that creative for the time being)

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dsaxton

10-04-2008, 07:46 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Arlington, VA

Posts: 2,667

Just call in all cases except for the last, where I think you should raise.

thelipkin

10-05-2008, 07:21 PM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Iowa

Posts: 49

I think one of the keys here is that we only need to win the pot so many times on this call, that we need to know how often our opp is on some sort of PP that didn't improve, vs him being on any other piece that did. I would say that given your raise from ep, the BB wouldnt be especially prone to raise 3 way with 88 and 99 which are pretty reasonable guesses. Between JQh, and a PP thinking that the turn is a blank and you are on AK AQ I see a lot of reasonable holdings that you beat on the river. I don't think we can fold in any of these spots for 1 big bet, even though we are probably beat a nice chunk of the time. Honestly, pairing the 7 helps us a lot of the time when we counterfit J4 that randomly connected the turn. I can't really find a great reason to bet the rivers, but I am a casino nit lately.

DrivingDog

10-06-2008, 07:33 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Location: UK

Posts: 923

Quote:

Originally Posted by thelipkin

Between JQh, and a PP thinking that the turn is a blank and you are on AK AQ I see a lot of reasonable holdings that you beat on the river. I don't think we can fold in any of these spots for 1 big bet, even though we are probably beat a nice chunk of the time. Honestly, pairing the 7 helps us a lot of the time when we counterfit J4 that randomly connected the turn.

I can't really find a great reason to bet the rivers, but I am a casino nit lately.

You just gave about 3 good reasons!

The fourth is that most villians will call a river raise in a bloated pot with three pair or TPGK, unless he is a thinking player, and even then he will have a hard time folding. That seven looks pretty innocuous if Hero didn't 3bet the turn. Some will make curiousity calls that they shouldn't as well.

The fifth is that we can make a disciplined fold to a river 3bet (except on no. 4 where we should never fold) because we will be behind 99% of the time when that happens. So we are only risking one more bet.

take (e.g.) no. 1: river is 7c.

Reasonable hands we're behind: J7s, T7s, 74s, 98= 32 hands.

We need 33 of hands we're beating to call a river raise for it to be profitable.
QJ, JT, J4s, T4s, J9, = 40 hands. Even if they fold 3 pair that's still 36 hands. Some guys will call down with twice as many (e.g., 99, 88, T9, T8, any pp, etc.)

p.s. I agree no. 3 is probably a call.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

thelipkin

10-06-2008, 08:48 PM

#8 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Iowa

Posts: 49

Your quote of my thinking is spot on. I should bet rivers more.

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river pairs the board, we have overpair

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