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River donk

  
 
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midas06
Old 06-07-2006, 03:11 AM     Post subject: River donk #1 (permalink)  
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Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 9 Q
3 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: J Q Q (2.33SB, 2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

Turn: 5 (3.17BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: 6 (9.17BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Results:
Final pot: 11.17BB
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elipsesjeff
Old 06-07-2006, 03:26 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Well, I put him on a Queen and there is 50/50 chance you're ahead here on the turn with your kicker. You're donk bet isnt too bad cuz he'll probably only raise with a boat.


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midas06
Old 06-07-2006, 04:27 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Villain was 48/28 over 21 hands on the table, unseen before that.
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midas06
Old 06-07-2006, 10:44 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Also, if the plan was to bet/call river, am I spewing?
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Xanadu
Old 06-07-2006, 01:55 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Hmmm, 48/28, but only over 21 hands. Small enough sample he may just have been getting good hands, but actually large enough that the chances are pretty small his true pfr is something like 5-10%. If you want to go by the numbers you have, I'd say highest probabilities are: Q with a crappy kicker, a J, some kind of strong draw like 89, 9T, or 8T of spades (some morons think this is a good hand to 3-bet a turn with), or even a preflop slowplayed KK or AA. Gotta be a little worried about a Q5 or 55 here I think. I think the chances of a Q that beats you other than Q5 is pretty remote ... if the 28% pfr is accurate, QT+ raises preflop. I like the line you took against a relative unknown, and don't think river bet/call is spewing at all.
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thenonsequitur
Old 06-07-2006, 03:31 PM     Post subject: Re: River donk #6 (permalink)  
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I'm not actually sure about this hand, but I did some thinking about this line in general (calling a turn 3-bet and donking the river), and when it might be a good line.

If you like your hand enough on the turn to put in at least four bets by the river, but not enough to put in more than five by the river, then this line accomplishes this. But capping the turn and check/calling the river also accomplishes this.

Opponents might also view the two lines differently, but that's opponent-dependent (in general either line could be interpreted as weak, and either line could be interpreted as a trap), so against an unknown I wouldn't consider this aspect.

The benefit of the turn call / river donk line is that if your hand decreases in strength on the river you can check/call and minimize your losses. The beneit of the turn cap / river check line is that if your hand increases in strength on the river you can bet/call and maximize your wins.

So if you've already decided on the turn that if there were no river to consider then you would want to put in between four and five bets, then both lines are plausible, and it comes down to whether you think the river has more potential to decrease the value of your hand (in which case you take the first line), or if it has more potential to increase the value of your hand (in which case you take the other line).

That's all just my thoughts about the differences between the two lines in a general sense. I purposely left out any judgement about where I think you actually stand in this hand and how many bets I think you should be trying to put in, because I'm focusing on a different conclusion based on the above analysis:

If you evaluate the relative strength of your hand on the turn such that you'd want to put in between 4 and 5 bets if there were no river to come, then I see a turn call and river donk as reasonable, provided that you are planning on check/calling the river on a scare card. If you plan on bet/calling the river always, then I don't see any benefit of this line over just capping the turn and then check/calling the river (because this line gives you the option to bet the river when you improve).

Sorry if this was already blatanly obvious to anyone (or everyone even), but it took me a little thinking to figure out why this line would ever make sense.
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euphoricism
Old 06-07-2006, 06:22 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Just cap it and call one bet on the river if he still fires. If he doesnt fire, you do. No need to get fancy IMO.
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outphase
Old 06-07-2006, 06:50 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
Just cap it and call one bet on the river if he still fires. If he doesnt fire, you do. No need to get fancy IMO.
Being OoP really hinders that river plan though.
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euphoricism
Old 06-07-2006, 07:18 PM #9 (permalink)  
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D'oh don't post without coffee.

Cap it, bet the river, call one.
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