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river bluff

  
 
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DrivingDog
Old 06-11-2008, 09:11 AM     Post subject: river bluff #1 (permalink)  
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Both villians are fairly solid TAGs, in the neighborhood of 35/20/2.

Idea is to fold out any Kx hands that might be splitting with me. Spew?

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q.
2 folds, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9, 6, 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets,

Final Pot: 10.50 BB
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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dsaxton
Old 06-11-2008, 11:24 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I think this is a bad river for attempting this play because after the board double pairs, many players will call with ace high hoping for a split. Against two opponents, it seems extremely likely that at least one player will call with either this or a pocket pair, especially if they've gotten to the river with these hands.

Also, the only K high hand that you could realistically expect an opponent to have here is K-T, so your bet really only serves a purpose against this hand exactly, and only if neither opponent has a calling hand better than K high. That is, you're hoping for some kind of precise scenario where one player has K-T and the other has J-T, and you avoid splitting with K-T. So, I think this is a pretty spewy bet overall. I would just check and hope that I somehow have the best hand. (Opponents may miraculously have some combination of Q-T or J-T suited, or a small pair that was counterfeited. This is really your only way of winning, in my opinion.)
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nutsinho
Old 06-12-2008, 12:37 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 spew for sure. At least one of them has at least ace high like 98% of the time
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DrivingDog
Old 06-12-2008, 01:14 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Yeah i expected to hear that and I'm tempted to agree.

To expand on my thinking a bit, this is SB v. BB v. Btn with three aggressive players so no-one has to have an Ace in their hand. 66+ can be ruled out since no-one's raised postflop, so I don't expect anyone to call with a pp. Also the pot's big enough to call the flop and turn with overcards, so hands like KQ, KJ, QJ, QT, etc. aren't out of the question.

I have a hard time check-folding K high in this big pot to a Btn who bets after its checked around. So I figured if I'm going to put a bet in anyways I might as well try to fold a split. Checking and folding the best hand or a split to a Btn bluff would really suck.

Finally, my position is good because Btn can't possibly call with Kx with SB still to act behind him.

Anyways I bet it quick like i had the nuts and they both folded. But yeah, probably just had the best hand anyways.

In retrospect, I think a better play would have been to check, then if Btn bet and SB called it would be a fold. If Btn bet and SB folded I would call hoping to pick off a bluff 1/10 times.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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socal1111
Old 06-12-2008, 05:00 AM     Post subject: Re: river bluff #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Both villians are fairly solid TAGs, in the neighborhood of 35/20/2.

Idea is to fold out any Kx hands that might be splitting with me. Spew?

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q.
2 folds, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9, 6, 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets,

Final Pot: 10.50 BB
There's no way you're picking this pot up from the pre action. SB's calling down w/ A-High every time (if he doesn't, attack the living sh!t out of him all day). What's SB 3-betting w/ pre that you beat? You better pray it's 55-22.

Terrible river, unfortunately.

NO VALUE IN THAT RIVER POP!

-Dayne
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DrivingDog
Old 06-12-2008, 09:18 AM     Post subject: Re: river bluff #6 (permalink)  
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So ignoring the results of this hand, what does everyone do?

I like c/c one bet but not overcall a bet and call behind me.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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dsaxton
Old 06-12-2008, 09:01 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I'm not sure you should call at all. If you check the river, the button will assume either the small blind or you are almost always calling with ace high, so I would expect his bet to be a bluff almost never, assuming he is a reasonably solid player. He may make some type of value bluff with ace high himself, but I can't see him betting any hand you beat. Calling if the button bets and the small blind folds probably isn't horrible given the pot size, but I wouldn't expect it to be much better than a break even play.
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DrivingDog
Old 06-12-2008, 09:45 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
If you check the river, the button will assume either the small blind or you are almost always calling with ace high, so I would expect his bet to be a bluff almost never.
That's the question really - is 'almost never' 1/10 times or more? At this level I think it might be.

Anyways I agree it's with you dsaxton that it's a close play.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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nutsinho
Old 06-12-2008, 10:58 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
If you check the river, the button will assume either the small blind or you are almost always calling with ace high, so I would expect his bet to be a bluff almost never.
That's the question really - is 'almost never' 1/10 times or more? At this level I think it might be.

Anyways I agree it's with you dsaxton that it's a close play.
I also feel like they rarely have better than ace high, which they won't generally bet, and a lot of people will take a shot with 55 in this spot, so I like the c/c but not overcall a lot. I was going to mention that previously but was too lazy.
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