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arkitekton
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07-29-2006, 09:10 PM
Post subject: Retrenching
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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Hey all. My girlfriend and I are about to close on a house. It's a beat up old thing but we think we can fix it up, sell it for a decent profit, and by next year have enough cash to start building our own place from scratch.
This is actually relevant to poker, and I'm also wondering if others have had any kind of similar experience and how it worked out for them. What buying the house means is that since she and I made this decision I have had to take the variance out of poker. We need me to make about $10,000 a year at some kind of (preferably pleasant) part-time job this year--in addition to that she'll be working full-time and I'll be putting in 40-50 hours a week on the house.
It's not what I had planned or hoped for when I started playing holdem back in January, but I've found I can easily and safely make $10-12 an hour playing .50/$1 while collecting the bonuses at those sites that offer what works out to .05 or more per hand . It's not the final table at the Bellagio, but there's very little paying work in this part of the country. I have a couple of degrees in architecture but there isn't anywhere I can commute to where I can make much more than $10 an hour. With poker I can make my own hours, and that fits nicely with the house renovation work I'll be starting in the next few days. .50/$1 is for me also the highest stakes where a tolerable profit is essentially guaranteed over any run of 1000 hands or more.
So, for the time being, that's the way it's probably going to be. It's an odd situation. We have enough money in the bank that I can afford to lose money playing at higher levels, but with our future plans and ongoing expenses, I can't afford not to MAKE money.
Thoughts?
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elipsesjeff
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I don't think you understand variance that much man. But if you want my advice (and even if you don't) i'll tell you what I think you should do.
First off, I dont think $12 an hour is possible at .5/1. Unless maybe your like 8 tabling full ring. Even then, real hard.
Secondly, over any 1000 hand session you're just as likely to have a downswing as you are an upswing at any limit. I wouldnt do this at anything lower than 2/4, cuz the rake will eat you up.
Congrats on your new house and Tyson (the admin) is heavy on real estate you might want to try asking him.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
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No offense taken, Jeff.
To clarify, in the $10-12 an hour figure I gave I was including the $5 an hour from bonuses.
I believe I have a fair understanding of variance, though I'd be happy to hear more. I'm DEFINITELY not claiming to be a great hold'em player (not yet, anyway), but I am all but certain I can beat .50/$1 for a win rate in the neighborhood of 6bb/100 (as, I believe, can any player with a certain amount of learning and experience). To cite evidence, I recently had a stretch of 33 consecutive sessions at that level averaging 4 hours per session that were break even or better. There wasn't anything extraordinary about my stats--W$wsf was around 37%, W$atSD was around 54%. To cite a different example, In clearing a bonus recently (about 1000 hands), EVERYTHING went wrong. I played atrociously, I was continually distracted, opponents were regularly hitting draws and worse on the river, my starting hands were a little subpar, my W$atSD was 48%, and I was still winning 2BB/100. Like I said, I'm not a great player, but I'm not bad, and there are apparently almost always enough very poor players at .50/$1 to compensate for chance.
btw, are there any questions on variance I should be able to answer correctly? I'm not being a smartass, just genuinely curious as to what a complete player should know.
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elipsesjeff
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Okay, I'll take the bonus out of the calculations so you're looking for $5-$7 per hour at the .5/1 game. It's doable, but 6 bb/100 is a rediculous claim. Its fundamentally impossible to win that much because of the rake itself.
Variance is funny, there are and will be days where you will win 2 bb/100 and others where you lose 8 bb/100 and others where you will win 8 bb/100. But, your winrate is based on the average so 2 bb/100 for a particular day is not something to be proud of. I'm just rambling though.
If you would be willing, post your stats for us to take a look at. I imagine you are running hot and playing well but its not sustainable. Shit, if you can run 6 bb/100 at the .5/1 game over 20k hands I'd personally stake you for higher stakes.
I think you would be much more comfortable money wise to start this at 2/4 and go from there. The play isnt that much more different if you use table selection that you cant easily do $12/hour 3 tabling.
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arkitekton
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lol--Offense taken, Jeff!
I recall a post that mentioned how one puts PokerTracker stats on a forum as a url, but can't find it. Can someone remind me how to do that...?
Jeff, in all seriousness, try the .50/$1 tables for a few hours. Exercise your table selection skills, and don't play more than two tables at once. Afterwards you may find my sense of the play there more credible.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkitekton
lol--Offense taken, Jeff!
I recall a post that mentioned how one puts PokerTracker stats on a forum as a url, but can't find it. Can someone remind me how to do that...?
Jeff, in all seriousness, try the .50/$1 tables for a few hours. Exercise your table selection skills, and don't play more than two tables at once. Afterwards you may find my sense of the play there more credible.
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Its not about a few hours though, its not even about a few thousand hands. I've gone on hot streaks where 15k hands and I am winning 4 bb/100. I've gone on others where its 15k of - .5 bb/100. The players are bad and its a beatable game, but anything above 3.0 bb/100 is godlike, and there was only one person that I know of that can beat a game for over 3 bb/100.
I will go on record to say you can't beat .5/$1, for $12 per hour, with bonuses, while two tabling.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
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I am a nlhe semipro so things are different for me than you, but here's my take.
You need to get better and move up before you start counting on poker for money. I wouldn't consider playing "professionally" until you get to 3/6 minimum.
I beat 100nl for a pretty big sample and made like 40/hour and it still wasn't secure enough.
Your hourly rate at poker needs to be much higher than at a secure job, because poker lacks security. A great player can lose over a month long sample at NL (and this is even worse in LHE I hear).
Now that I have beaten 100nl and 200nl for large samples, I can play 400nl and my hourly rate is such that I have a little more security. In a good month I can make 8-15k and store it away just in case I run bad the next month or two. When I am supporting myself entirely with poker, I like having this security.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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I'm with jeff. Other notable posters have made similar claims, but we've yet to see any real proof. Show me a 50k hand sample where you ran 6bb/100, and we'll talk.
At 2/4, 4 tabling, 20 hours a week, you only need 0.75bb/100 to clear 10k for the year. At 1/2, again 4 tabling 20 hours a week, you need 1.25bb/100.
At .5/1 again 4 tabling 20 hours a week, you need 2.75/100.
Definitely get to ATLEAST 1/2.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
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Well, after all, who knows. You may be right, that 6BB/100 is not sustainable. Literally nothing of what I've seen so far suggests it's not (and that's over 14,000 hands), but if I play 50,000 hands at that level (not that that's my aim), the results will be suggestive.
I do think some of you are making too much of this, and making somewhat erroneous comparisons. I've played $3/6, done all right at it, and it is literally NOTHING like .50/$1. I recommended someone play a few hours at the smaller stake to get a sense of this, as it sounded to me like they felt the two levels were something like the same game. They're not--at all. Given that, I admit I'd be sceptical if someone claimed they could pull down 6BB/100 at typical 3/6 tables. Sklansky could probably pull it off, but mere mortals would have a tough, tough time doing that.
What do you all think the best players could pull down if they went slumming at 3/6?
Renton--nice post. Just so you know, I don't consider the scenario I described as playing professionally as the term is conventionally used. For the time being it's an enjoyable part-time job, nothing more. It does sound like you're doing well--congratulations on that.
euph--to meet your numbers at 2/4 would mean playing over 6,000 hands a week--that's a little too much like a regular job, given the other work I'm doing. I can 4 table, I just don't enjoy it much.
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Waterdick
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 124
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I dont think you shud be playing poker as your main source of income. I dont think it is wise to rely on 2 tabling .5/1 for money. I know you say this is a part time job, but u also sed u need money and poker is how u are gonna get it. I think you shud get a part-time job.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
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Thanks for the considerate post, Wd. If not for the bonus structure, I wouldn't be doing it this way. With the bonus structure, low stakes are an extraordinarily safe way for me to pick up reliable, adequate (for my purposes, for the time being) part-time cash.
While one could argue that too much low-stakes play becomes counter-productive to moving up successfully, I haven't played so many hands that my overall game won't benefit from, say, 60,000 more low stakes hands before I eventually go on to substantially higher stakes.
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Ltrain
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Miami, Florida
Posts: 514
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Doing what you are doing, have you looked into WPEX? No rake playing most of the day should increase your bottom line versus bonus trolling and give you more of a steady return.
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"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
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thanks for the tip, Ltrain (given the handle, are you a New Yorker by any chance?). I downloaded it the other day, and will register and fire it up in the next few days. Have you had any experience on the site?
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Ltrain
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Miami, Florida
Posts: 514
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Actually Miami, but was born in Wisconsin (Migrated due to the weather, which funny enough it is cooler down here so far this summer).
Yes, I play there during off peak times when I can. I usually play at around 3/6 so I don't know the level of play at $.5/1. The competition is tougher, but you can still find a table or 2 that works well and getting all the rake refunded makes up for the difference in competition level. Cashing out has not been a problem and usually is within 3 business days through Netteller. However, the software sucks for multitabling and playing more than 2 tables can be challenging, I think the max is 3.
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"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
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sinky
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: SCOTLAND
Posts: 295
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If you are happy to bonus whore at 1/2 & 2/4 you can easily make $1000 month for less than 10000 hands.
Cryptos, Poker Network, B2B, Party, Empire, Stars, Paradise all have easy bonuses. You do have to put up with poor table selection and adjust to tight tables but the bonus alone gives you more than 2BB / 100 hands.
Typically on crypto sites a $100 bonus takes ~ 1200 hands of 2/4 to clear. That's 2.08 BB/100. Poker Network, Stars & B2B are similar.
On Party a $100 bonus (10x) takes ~ 1550 hands of 1/2 to clear. That's 3.22 BB/100. Empire & Paradise are similar.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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Power out here for several days...
Thanks guys, I appreciate the info. In case it helps anyone else new to playing the bonuses, I'll mention that the total amount of a given bonus is not nearly as important as the amount of that bonus per hand. It may sound swell that TigerGaming is offering a matching bonus of up to $750, but if I have to play about 37,500 hands to get the 750 bucks, it's hardly worth it. Party and Empire have good deals on a per raked hand basis, and I'll check out WPEX and the sites you mentioned, sinky.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
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I've played the .5/1 full ring games on party. Yes, theyre beatable. 6bb/100 is a dream, sir, sorry. 2bb/100 is perfectly possible.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
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lol--I seem to be a minority of one. I'll post again on the subject if I get another 20,000 hands in at that level.
Useful chart, euph, though multitabliing 5 at a time is more than I enjoy.
So, just to satisfy my curiousity, what did an intelligent poster such as yourself pull down per 100 at .50/$1, and what was the sample size?
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
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I played 1003 hands this evening. Not enough of a sample size to care about, but for sake of full disclosure, I pulled 2.75bb/100. I was 8-tabling, and ran 20.34/15.55
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
I played 1003 hands this evening. Not enough of a sample size to care about, but for sake of full disclosure, I pulled 2.75bb/100. I was 8-tabling, and ran 20.34/15.55
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Why are you 8 tabling?
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
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Because I enjoy 8-tabling FR.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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The reason I ask is, there is no possible way to improve your game while 8 tabling. You are merely taking the current game you have and applying it to that game, 8 tables at a time. You are neither learning new skills nor redeveloping bad habits.
Thus, you are destined to fail.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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Well yes, if I were aiming to improve my 6max game, I would not be playing full ring. However, I have always felt that my full ring game is very solid ... probably because of the large decrease in significance of blind play, definitely my number one weakness... and not only that, I enjoy playing it too.
Which is something that can't be said for short handed at the moment.
As for your 'destined to fail' remark, I disagree, but I understand your point as it pertains to the problems I have been having at sixmax. However, I feel obligated for whatever reason to point out that I have never been anything but a winner at full ring games, and there is certainly no evidence to back up any claim that I will absolutely fail at the occasional full ring games. All evidence points precisely to the contrary. Hell, the fact that I even started playing sixmax points directly to the contrary. After all, I was a solid long-term winner until I switched over to 6max however many months ago it was. Clawed my way from $50 at the $0.05/0.10 tables all the way up until someone convinced me to switch to sixmax, because "thats where the money is".
But I also know you meant the comment in the best of ways, and point it out only to those who might view it as you taking a shot at me. I know you aren't. You just have no tact whatsoever, which is fine.
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
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I feel that you played full ring for too long, learnt too many new concepts at once, and tried to apply them all without learning how they worked properly yourself when changing from FR to short handed. Thus, you likely spewed a lot pre and post flop in these games.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Well yes, if I were aiming to improve my 6max game, I would not be playing full ring. However, I have always felt that my full ring game is very solid ... Probably because of the large decrease in significance of blind play, definitely my number one weakness... and not only that, I enjoy playing it too.
Which is something that can't be said for short handed at the moment.
I choose to ignore your 'destined to fail' remark.
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I just dont know what your goal is by 8 tabling .5/1 FR games. Do you see my point at all? I realized in all this you have ignored everyone's advice and gone your own path. Good luck with that.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by midas06
I feel that you played full ring for too long, learnt too many new concepts at once, and tried to apply them all without learning how they worked properly yourself when changing from FR to short handed. Thus, you likely spewed a lot pre and post flop in these games.
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Possibly. But I think a lot of it is that I (and a lot of other players who easily could be big-winners but aren't) just flat out suck ass at blind play. and unfortunately for them and I, there's a fuck-ton more blind situations in 6max. There's a pretty good article on this in PokerEssays Vol. 3
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Well yes, if I were aiming to improve my 6max game, I would not be playing full ring. However, I have always felt that my full ring game is very solid ... Probably because of the large decrease in significance of blind play, definitely my number one weakness... and not only that, I enjoy playing it too.
Which is something that can't be said for short handed at the moment.
I choose to ignore your 'destined to fail' remark.
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I just dont know what your goal is by 8 tabling .5/1 FR games. Do you see my point at all? I realized in all this you have ignored everyone's advice and gone your own path. Good luck with that. |
The point was simply to kill some time and have fun playing poker for the first time in a month.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
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I was also intrigued by Arki's claims of 6bb/100, and figured I could check out the game. I'm certainly not going to be playing 50,000 hands of .50/1.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
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And maybe I've just missed it. What exactly HAS been everyones advice? Bring my VPIP/PFR higher and loosen up from the blinds. This is a very good way of saying something while saying nothing. But I also understand that its almost impossible to say more.
I really don't believe that a higher vpip is ideal at $1/$2. And playing more in the blinds while not actively identifying the problems IN said blinds, is simply a recipe for disaster. Doomed to failure, as you say.
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
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I ran 19-20/15 at 3/6 6max before I opened my game up and still dominated.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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To refuel the fire, obviously there's some level at which most players could pull down 6BB/100, whether that's .02/.04, .25/.50, or something higher.
What's the highest level each person reading this thinks they can win 6BB/100 hands or better?
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkitekton
To refuel the fire, obviously there's some level at which most players could pull down 6BB/100, whether that's .02/.04, .25/.50, or something higher.
What's the highest level each person reading this thinks they can win 6BB/100 hands or better?
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Never. It is statistcally impossible.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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Any support for that statement?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Not trying to start an arugment but I have been slummin around the micros for a little bit lately. The highest levels I have played have been .25/50. I know it is a small sample size and I doubt anyone will belive me.
Hands Played: 8400
BBs Won: 1033
BB/100=12.3
Before you jump onto this post and kill it completely, I want it known I am telling the truth. I have been running extremely well and easily outplaying the little fishies. Im not saying this is even sustainable or at all worth it, just that it can be done. Over an extremely long pd of time I feel someone could definitely run 10BB/100 w/out breaking a sweat. I also believe with great table selection, perfect play, and the right rake someone could run 6BB/100 at .25/50 or .5/1. These games are just so weak that I have no problem believing this to be possible.
Now go ahead....let the quoting and bashing begin....
PEaCe
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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nice run sir
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MiJ
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Miami
Posts: 208
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the game sux at .25/.50 but thats still not sustainable....
arkitekton go play at your local B&M 5/10 games they play exactly like a 1/2 online game (maybe worse) only thing is you wont be able to play as many hands and the dealer always expects a tip after you win ....
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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The B&M games are a joke, I would call 5/10 or 4/8 the absolutely lowest limit you can play profitably. I tried the 2/4 just starting out and the rake and tips kill any profit. The great thing is the play just does not improve until you reach 10/20 or 15/30. I have found 8/16 games at the casino to be softer than .5/1 games online.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
The B&M games are a joke, I would call 5/10 or 4/8 the absolutely lowest limit you can play profitably. I tried the 2/4 just starting out and the rake and tips kill any profit. The great thing is the play just does not improve until you reach 10/20 or 15/30. I have found 8/16 games at the casino to be softer than .5/1 games online.
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If thats the case he should be rich by next week.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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This thread's been going on so long that my girlfriend and I bought a house at the beginning of it, and now we're ready to break up and sell it off. If that happens I'll be taking my cut and hitting the higher stakes soon. The only reason to stay with .50/1 was to essentially guarantee (bb/100 plus the bonuses) a tolerable wage under pleasant and flexible working conditions while I upgraded our new place (it was in such pitiful shape a week ago that I think I made $10,000 just by brushhogging and mowing the property. If it turns out I don't need steady income and can take a few risks, my roll will fund me at higher stakes.
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Not trying to start an arugment but I have been slummin around the micros for a little bit lately. The highest levels I have played have been .25/50. I know it is a small sample size and I doubt anyone will belive me.
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I believe you, big. I believe you
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arkitekton go play at your local B&M 5/10 games they play exactly like a 1/2 online game (maybe worse) only thing is you wont be able to play as many hands and the dealer always expects a tip after you win ....
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I plan to give 5/10 at try as soon as i'm anywhere near a B&M (I'm currently about an hour and a half north of Montreal, and I don't think there's a casino hold'em game anywhere in the province of Quebec)--exactly the stakes I was thinking of.
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I also believe with great table selection, perfect play, and the right rake someone could run 6BB/100 at .25/50 or .5/1. These games are just so weak that I have no problem believing this to be possible.
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I'm not alone!!!
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If thats the case he should be rich by next week
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Bless you, sir, bless you...
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05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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