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Reads + Heads up implied odds = $$

  
 
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KoRnholio
Old 10-22-2005, 11:36 PM     Post subject: Reads + Heads up implied odds = $$ #1 (permalink)  
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 Here was an interesting hand that made me rethink the profitability of drawing while heads up. Lilla was a pretty tight player, average aggressiveness and liked to show down hands. Barring my flop call (which was actually an accident, but not terrible)

dealt to Stonef4ce [Tc Qs]
SniperIP: folds
Captonomo: calls $2
LillaMy: calls $2
Stonef4ce: calls $2
Hazard4: folds
ImFishing: folds
100fuegos: folds
Inter401: folds
aggiegolf: checks
----- FLOP ----- [Js Ah 7c]
aggiegolf: checks
Captonomo: checks
LillaMy: bets $2
Stonef4ce: calls $2
aggiegolf: folds
Captonomo: folds
----- TURN ----- [Js Ah 7c][8s]
LillaMy: bets $4
Stonef4ce...

Now here I am thinking: I am heads up, in position and my double belly buster straight draw is very well concealed. If I miss I fold and lose just $4, if I call and hit, I figure to win an extra 2 bets on the river.

If I miss (82% of the time) I lose $4.
If I hit (18% of the time) I will likely win $25 ($17 that's in the pot now, plus two more bets by Lilla). The EV here looks like +$.50, assuming that Lilla will call a reraise on the river if a K or 9 falls.

Of course a wrench is thrown into this if she checks, bet/folds or even check-folds(!). But thanks to my read, I figured her for at least an ace with a good kicker (ATo or AQo I thought, she had limped with AQo and AJo previously) and figured to get paid off if I hit.

----- RIVER ----- [Js Ah 7c 8s][Kd]
LillaMy: bets $4
Stonef4ce: raises $8
LillaMy: calls $4
----- SHOW DOWN -----
Stonef4ce: shows [Tc Qs] (A Straight, Ace high)
LillaMy: shows [Jh Ad] (Two Pairs, Aces and Jacks, King high)
Stonef4ce collected $35.25 from Main pot


Any thoughts about this?
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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The_Bankroll
Old 10-23-2005, 06:22 AM #2 (permalink)  
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sounds good to me. sounds like you have a good understanding of implied odds. plus, you're getting 4:1 on your call, with 8 outs, it's not good, but not terrible pot odds.
 
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