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Raising for value on a draw?

  
 
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mike4066
Old 09-08-2004, 04:27 PM     Post subject: Raising for value on a draw? #1 (permalink)  
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I was just talking with a friend about raising for value last night when I got to thinking about a semi-frequent situation.

You've got AK early position, but the flop misses. What do you do?

Limit holdem $1/$2.

For this line of questioning there will be two assumptions to make.
#1 You know everyones hands
#2 Everyone will call everything ot the river. Betting to fold a hand is not an option.


I've got AK UTG+1

UTG limps, I Raise, MP 1+2 call, button 3bets, blinds + UTG fold, I call, MP 1+2 Call.

pot is 14 small bets, 4 way action, i'm in early position.

Flop is 952 3 suited.

Lets say you know the button has JJ, MP 1+2, have J9s, and Q5s. Suits
don't matter for this example, but everyone has "a pair".

You know your behind but could draw for the win. What are your options.

If I Check call:
6 outs, 7:1 to hit my overs , 15:1 on a single bet. Implied 17:1 with the 2 MP calling stations.

What about check raising?
15:1 to call, 7.5 on your money when you make the bet with implied odds of 10:1 if everyone calls.
You could aslo face a re-raise byt the button. 10.5:1 if it gets capped by the button, 11.5:1 if the MP's call.

Bet / calling the raise
14:1 when I bet, knowing the Button will raise.
19:1 to make the call. (is this right? I include my original bet in the odds because It's part of the pot now.)
Call the raise, i'm back to the same odds as check raising.


I think i've really confused myself here, can someone with some implied odds/+EV situation help me out here?
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Krapp
Old 09-08-2004, 06:12 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Hm, I would have to get my stats book out here, but essentially your a big dog b/c even if you hit one of your outs you still need to avoid the opps hitting their outs, J(2outs), 9(2outs), 2(2outs). So with my layman's views, Im guessing its your 24% of getting an overcard on the turn/river minus the chance of them hitting their 6outs on either turn/river.

Overall, I pass plays where I have bottom/medium pair (you have 5 outs here catching a 2-pair or trips) in multi-way pots. Even if I hit a out, I could be drawing dead against a set, straight, flush, etc. It be more worthwhiled if my outs are giving me a straight (maybe gutshot). Now at least I have a potential best hand if I hit my 4-outs.

Your situation is extra ugly b/c you have to assume someone is drawing to a flush (or even made a flush), in which your only valid outs go to 4 (the other 2 would make someone a flush)

(1) So lets assume you made your overcard on the turn (13%). On the river, there are 6outs that cab beat you (13%). So 13% of the time you will lose even if you hit your out on the turn - 11.5%
(2) Blank on the turn and you hitting an out on the river -> 13%
(3) Opps hit their out on the turn, you lost already on the river -> 13%

I am not sure how to add these probabilities together for a total chance of winning but I am guessing its about 20%. If every calls to the river, I think your getting 3:1 on your money. Not good odds overall.
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mike4066
Old 09-08-2004, 06:46 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Ugh.. too many numbers..

I knew my example was iffy not drawing for the nuts.


What odds book are you reading?
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Krapp
Old 09-08-2004, 06:50 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Ha, I havent read an odds book, just something I remembered from stats class. it could be all wrong... My rule of thumb is (if aggressive), if you miss the flop with AK, bet at it once... With 2+ callers check the turn and fold to a bet. Now I might bluff at on these situations, but probably only position and better still if the caller was one of the blinds and/or the table is known to be tight.

I guess one other thing I assume is that each caller has at least 4-different outs to beat me. So if there 3 other opps, thats 12 outs that can beat me on the turn and river. It gets worse with a straight and flush draw since now each opp could have 8+ outs to beat me. Your in a lucky situation since the opps are sharing some outs to beat you.
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Fnord
Old 09-08-2004, 06:51 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Generally, I peel one and fold the turn unimproved. Sometimes with position, I'll raise hoping to check through the turn or perhaps set-up a situation where I can steal the pot on the turn if enough players drop on the flop.

The trick with 2 overs is recognising when your outs are no good. Either because you're drawing dead or one of your As or Ks makes someone else's str8, flush or 2 pair (reverse domination.) Hence, there are situations/flops where you should just fold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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mike4066
Old 09-08-2004, 07:30 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I had a feeling this was going to turn into an AK discussion with my bad example.


OK something more visual.

Lets say our on a nut flush draw.

Axs late position.

If you could raise/re-raise your draw into multiple opponents and STILL have pot odds would/should you?
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Fnord
Old 09-08-2004, 07:33 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike4066
If you could ram/jam your draw and STILL have pot odds should you?
If you have enough callers then it's pure value. If you have other outs, you might jam it with fewer callers or to "clean up" an overcard or two. If your raise might set-up a turn/river bet that wins the pot, you should be aggressive.

Also, consider the size of the pot. In a big pot, you should focus on doing whatever it takes to win. In a small pot, you should focus on building a pot with your strong draw.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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fishstick
Old 09-08-2004, 07:36 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike4066
If you could ram/jam your draw and STILL have pot odds should you?
as long as the pot odds there, i'd say yes.

1. your fattening the pot if you hit your flush.
2. if someone else hits a hand, they're less inclined to put you on the flush draw, thus implied odd, etc.
3. is you have something like AQ or AJ and it's a low board, you could win it just by pairing one of your overs.
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Fnord
Old 09-08-2004, 07:38 PM #9 (permalink)  
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4. With a bigger pot, weaker hands/draws will be more inclined to pay you off on the turn/river.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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mike4066
Old 09-08-2004, 07:46 PM #10 (permalink)  
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The last few posts by fishstick and Fnord were pretty much what I was looking for.



Sorry for the poor example to start. It was just a hand that was running through my head.
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