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gabe
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12-14-2005, 07:10 PM
Post subject: raising at a tight table with some dead money
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#1 (permalink)
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9 handed 30/60, the CO, CO+1 and CO+2 have all posted their blinds. Hero raises   UTG. UTG+1 reraises,, one of the posters call and its folded back to Hero who calls.
:Js: :Jc: 
Hero checks, Villian bets, poster folds, Hero Calls.
:Js: :Jc: 
Hero checks, Villian bets, Hero raises
thoughts on given streets?
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gabe
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obv not my hand, btw
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elipsesjeff
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Fold Preflop, Fold the flop. The turn raise may salvage your hand but expect to get called by any pair and possibly Ace high. Pray for your OESD and if you pair it might be good.
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Fnord
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You're expected to make a move here too much. I want a hand with showdown and/or high card value pre-flop.
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elipsesjeff
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Yeah, the thing about the turn check/raise is that its not too consistent with the flop action. If he wanted to rep the jack, or at least try to, lead the flop then checkraise the turn after the guy autoraises. Even then, you'll only get a fold by the worst of hands.
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gabe
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even if making a raise here is transparent, whats wrong with it?
if you are expected to make a move here, that makes utg+1 more likely to also be playing with A high, which makes the flop call not bad, right?
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elipsesjeff
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thats if he has A high though, which is probably less than 50%. You'll be three bet preflop by:
66:AA
KQ
AJ+
I've even been three bet by KJo.
The only hands you really have outs against are AK, AQ, and KQ. If you were 100% sure he had these hands, its worthwhile to see the turn and hence the river with an added redraw.
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gabe
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If you were 100% sure he had AK AQ KQ or a small pair, check raising the turn is very very easy here. Calling would be giving up a chance to win the pot, unless of course you think you might get called down by one of those hands mentioned.
Also, if those hands are just half of his range, wouldn't check raising still be a good play, given that they would fold AK AQ KQ and a small pair enough times to make it profitable? Not to mention you still have outs against the hands that are going to call you down.
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Fnord
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You picked a losing fight pre-flop and are trying to salvage what you can out of it post-flop.
I expect that at this level they know enough about position and newbie blinds for someone to make your life difficult.
I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the newbie blinds (correctly) 3-bet KJ+/77+ here.
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gabe
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
You picked a losing fight pre-flop
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whats so wrong with it?
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
You picked a losing fight pre-flop
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whats so wrong with it? |
An OOP semi-connected suited cards with few people in the pot and you're trying to isolate.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
if those hands are just half of his range
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They aren't, though. They are probably 80-90% of his range. If he had two overcards here he may fold depending on your table image, but I would expect a call with an ace.
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pokerfanatic
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whoever played that hand playted it like shit...
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
whoever played that hand playted it like shit...
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Its actually a very common occurance on the 2+2 boards for them to raise 9Ts UTG like that with those limpers. I'm not sure I agree with it entirely nor do I ever practice it. I really dont understand the reasons on it other than perhaps the metagame considerations and your against weak opponents.
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pokerfanatic
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
whoever played that hand playted it like shit...
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Its actually a very common occurance on the 2+2 boards for them to raise 9Ts UTG like that with those limpers. I'm not sure I agree with it entirely nor do I ever practice it. I really dont understand the reasons on it other than perhaps the metagame considerations and your against weak opponents. |
9Ts has bettor +EV then 86s, higher cards conected not one gappers... various things... the mah:
T9 s -0.08 -0.10 -0.05 -0.02 0.09 -0.10 0.05 0.02 0.06 0.11
86 s -0.17 -0.22 -0.05 -0.09 -0.08 -0.07 -0.02 -0.04 -0.02 0.00
-EV play...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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gabe
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
whoever played that hand playted it like shit...
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Its actually a very common occurance on the 2+2 boards for them to raise 9Ts UTG like that with those limpers. I'm not sure I agree with it entirely nor do I ever practice it. I really dont understand the reasons on it other than perhaps the metagame considerations and your against weak opponents. |
9Ts has bettor +EV then 86s, higher cards conected not one gappers... various things... the mah:
T9 s -0.08 -0.10 -0.05 -0.02 0.09 -0.10 0.05 0.02 0.06 0.11
86 s -0.17 -0.22 -0.05 -0.09 -0.08 -0.07 -0.02 -0.04 -0.02 0.00
-EV play... |
you missed the point. it doesn't matter if the hero's hand is worse than the villian's preflop (it pretty much always is) because of the dead money in there.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
whoever played that hand playted it like shit...
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Its actually a very common occurance on the 2+2 boards for them to raise 9Ts UTG like that with those limpers. I'm not sure I agree with it entirely nor do I ever practice it. I really dont understand the reasons on it other than perhaps the metagame considerations and your against weak opponents. |
if all the dead money makes it a zero EV play, then it is probably a good idea simply because of metagame considerations.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
if all the dead money makes it a zero EV play, then it is probably a good idea simply because of metagame considerations.
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Possibly, if you think the increase in variance is worth it in the long run. Plus, you'd have to show this down for it to help and if they raise you on the river when you miss, you have to fold. Thus, they will be less likely to fold to you in later betting rounds; which could work both for and against you.
Frankly, I'm still choosing a better spot. Limping is better than raising here IMO; at least then you can encourage some more limpers. Best of all though is fold.
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pokerfanatic
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i don't htink the dead money makes up for the -EV of that 86s i mean these guys just posted newbie blinds... what's the probablity you hit verses the money you input on this play? I think that your output is much higher over the long run then the input... i didn't miss the point at all...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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