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Mony B
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07-22-2005, 02:58 PM
Post subject: Raising draws...
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 192
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I was playing at a poker room that allows you to have 5 bets before its capped unlike the usual 4. I was playing a 8-16 game when i came across a flush draw and started to wonder how worth it is it to raise your draws. I mean usually you take control of the hand once you throw out a raise but when is it enough. Should all open-ended and flush draws be bet like a strong made hand? I was watching the fellow aggressors at my table and everytime they hit a draw it was raise...raise....raise...raise. I know that when you hit you want to hit big, but then does raising hands like JTs preflop come into play for deception? There is no specific question in this thread other then, What is your opinion on betting/raising draws, and preflop betting for deception?
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Mony B
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 192
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Just because you hit a straight or flush draw doesnt mean that you are going to connect every 4.5 times, so if you know that you are actually a 4.5-1 dog to hit does betting/raising still remain profitable even though the more draws you get, your odds still stay the same?
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A'aag
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Straight
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Loyal son of Rochester
Posts: 172
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I will raise strong draws mainly for three reasons: 1) I think I'll get enough callers to make the raise profitable, such as getting 5 callers on a 4:1 shot. 2) I think everyone might fold. 3) I think I can get a free card. Every situation is different, but I see people pushing draws at inappropriate times constantly.
As for betting for deception...I don't do this much unless I find myself in a hand against a good player, which is fairly rare at the level I play at. When you try to be deceptive against bad players, you're usually either missing bets or spewing chips.
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Jay67s
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: West Virginia
Posts: 241
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I agree with A'aag, plus one more situation. If you are in late position, and you have 3 or more callers already in, if you raise most of the callers will call. Then you may get a free card if the turn is a blank, but if the turn hits, other players may not put you on the flush (straight) because you raised the flop, thus they may stay in.
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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when playing against a ton of calling stations, as is typical for a live cardroom, you almost always have correct pot odds to bet and raise your strong draws. quite simply, the few times that you hit your 8- or 9-outers will more than make up for the few extra bets lost when you missed. do the math, it is quite simple. you may not be betting your actual hand, but you are betting your pot equity.
just make sure you're drawing to the nuts or near-nuts. you can't afford to ram your Q-high flush draw to the river and lose to the A-high flush.
one other thing to consider. when you are drawing to an obvious hand like a flush, you may not get any action after you make it. so get the money in beforehand.
ChezJ
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Mony B
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07-23-2005, 06:35 AM
Post subject: very good points
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#6 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 192
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I have to agree stongly with all of you. One point I would like to bring up is the importance of drawing to the nuts or the near nuts. One hand in particular comes to mind. I was at a 9 handed ring (8-16 limit) and had a very tight table image, only showing pocket pairs and AK-AJ in late positions. I was the dealer and looked down at 86s with 6 limpers in front of me. I figured if i got a flop in my favor, with this many callers could be quite profitable. Moral of the story i flopped a flush draw with heavy bettors through-out the entire flop-turn. The river brought my flush card and everyone checked to me, i bet out once and received one caller (the SB) who turned over 94s. Now this isnt very common, but it does make me want to get rid of low flush draws.
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mdwav
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ont, Canada
Posts: 59
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Mony B wrote:
Quote:
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The river brought my flush card and everyone checked to me, i bet out once and received one caller (the SB) who turned over 94s. Now this isnt very common, but it does make me want to get rid of low flush draws.
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It is often stated that flush over flush (using both hole cards) is rare. However, does this statement only apply when people are folding hands like Qxs or Jxs?
Chez J
Quote:
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just make sure you're drawing to the nuts or near-nuts
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I have been thinking about this for a while, and I am confused as to whether or not to muck the lower suited connectors like 67s or 89s? Even if you make a straight draw, it seems it is often at the sucker end.
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" Don’t misunderstand. A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That’s just a fool.” - Reno
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Flush over flush is not as rare as set over set. I'd approximate the chances of another flush draw being out there when you have one at somewhere in the 20-30% range. The chances of being beat by that flush depend on the rank of your higher card. So if you have a baby flush, you may be beat 25% of the time. If you have a K, and there is another flush draw against you, the chances they have the A are 2/9. So you are probably beat about 5-6% of the time when you make your draw. Your chances of being beat increase if a fourth of your suit shows. You should adjust your betting for these statistics. Typically, if you have an OESD or flush draw to the nuts, you should definitely bet/raise if you expect 3 callers. At certain tables and in certain situations, it is profitable to bet this expecting only 2 callers as your chances of winning without a showdown increase. If you have a K high draw, you don't really need to adjust, If you have 54s, you probably want 4 callers to bet(this is all on the flop), especially since you won't win as many hands with your high card strength. Also, overcards and extra draws, like a gutshot straight to go with your flush draw make your hand that much more powerful and allow you to play more aggressively against fewer opponents.
Once you get to the turn, it is rarely profitable to bet on the strength of your draw alone when you only have 1 draw. However, at many tables, I have found semi-bluffing to be very profitable against 1 or 2 opponents. If you are up against an opponent who has shown the ability to lay hands down and has shown no aggression so far in the hand, the semi-bluff is usually a good idea (temper this with your table image at the time). Also, against the right opponent, if you semi-bluffed the turn, go ahead and bluff the river ... there is a good chance they were on the same draw and will fold after missing it. I've made good money with this play at a local casino even at 3-6.
The basic decision process for these hands is really the same as any hand.
A series of questions will guide you to the right decisions:
1. What are my chances of winning the pot unimproved?
2. How many outs do I have to improve?
3. What are the values of my outs ... for each out, what are my
chances after improving?
4. What is the size of the pot?
5. From what I have observed of the table and my opponents, what is the
likely future action for the hand (implied odds)
6. If I play aggressively, what are the chances of taking down the pot without a showdown?
7. How do my overall winning chances compare to pot odds and implied odds?
A common way to simplify some of the math involved is to asign partial value to your outs according to your estimation of the chances that out will win the hand for you. For example, you may have AKs with a flush draw and a T high board. Asign full value to the 9 flush outs as they are to the nuts. The 6 overcard outs should not be fully valued because of the chances of someone out there having a set or 2pair. Depending on your opponents and the flop texture, you may assign anywhere from 3-5 outs to the 6 Aces and Kings as you will not always win when they show.
Always consider what your outs may do to improve your opponents' hands. One example of this that can really swing your decisions is when you have a straight draw with 2 or 3 of a suit on board. 1/4 of your straight draw outs will put another of the flush suit on board, so these outs are reduced by the chances of a flush draw being out. These adjustments often turn a marginal call into a fold, or a bet to a check.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Flush over flush using both hole cards is a pretty dumb thing to worry about. I just looked over 30k hands, and I can count the times I lost flush over flush with fingers to spare.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Tyler is right that you don't really worry about it. You aren't going to fold a flush with only 3 of the suit on board. But it is an important thing to take into consideration when betting/raising the flop. If you have 2 small cards to the flush, you need 1 more expected caller on the flop to bet/raise than you would with an A or K high flush draw.
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Mony B
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 192
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the only problem is if there are 4 people in the pot with you and you have say a 98s with a better a raiser and two cold callers, its pretty obvious that someone else is in on the same draw that you are(just for example). To say that flush vs. flush is highly unlikely is a correct statement, but if you can see that someone else is on that draw dont be afraid to lay it down.
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