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Raise the Turn?

  
 
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Ltrain
Old 01-28-2006, 10:37 PM     Post subject: Raise the Turn? #1 (permalink)  
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SB is Loose Passive, BB is unknown at this point, UTG is agressive but poor

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Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) A, 9, 6 (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 5 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, [color=#CC3333] Hero ?

Here is my question: Bet or check the Turn? SB coldcalled 3 bets and definitely hit a flop that will beat aces. Plus there is a good likelihood he will checkraise me. However, I just picked up the nut flush draw. Even thinking he may checkraise me, is a turn bet justified mathematically?
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
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ihategnomes
Old 01-28-2006, 11:24 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Quote:
SB coldcalled 3 bets and definitely hit a flop that will beat aces.
Or he has a flush draw or OESD or an A with a bad kicker. Bet the turn.
Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 01-29-2006, 12:15 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ihategnomes
Quote:
SB coldcalled 3 bets and definitely hit a flop that will beat aces.
Or he has a flush draw or OESD or an A with a bad kicker. Bet the turn.
Or just complete trash, cuz thats what they do.


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outphase
Old 01-29-2006, 12:56 AM #4 (permalink)  
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What raise? there was no bet before you
Quote:
Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
 
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midas06
Old 01-29-2006, 02:05 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Bet it.
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Mike_Ann
Old 01-29-2006, 02:48 AM #6 (permalink)  

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I would bet Again.
UTG didn't cap the flop. mainly he still not sure about his hand. Bet for value and you still have nut flush draw with it. no pair board for possible fullhouse
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Ragnar4
Old 01-29-2006, 08:50 AM #7 (permalink)  
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You have 8 outs which give you the nuts, (8 hearts)
a bunch more outs that give you the near nuts (2 aces, 3 jacks) If he has two pair, you have 3 more outs to conterfeit his hand. Assuming that we only count the flush, the trips, and say 1/2 the outs from the 2 pair and the counterfeit outs (We're assuming that 1/2 the time you'll get two pair and still lose here ((Subnote, I put him on two pair here, because I think even a donkey would cap the flop with trips)) that puts you at 13 total outs for money. 4 players in, that makes you responsible for 25% of the money, and you're gonna get money right around 29% of the time, bet and raise as long as you don't lose a customer, the moment you do... just call.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Ltrain
Old 01-29-2006, 01:47 PM     Post subject: Results #8 (permalink)  
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Thanks for the input. The rest of the hand is below if you are curious:

Hero bets, SB raises, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (19 BB) 3 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 23 BB

Results below:
SB has 8d 7d (straight, nine high).
BB has Jd As (one pair, aces).
UTG has Ad 2d (one pair, aces).
Hero has Ah Jh (one pair, aces).
Outcome: SB wins 23 BB.

I remember thinking at the time I was walking into an ambush (after the bet,raise, re-raise, 3-bet call on the flop, all three checked to me quickly on the turn), but with the nut flush draw I bet the turn anyway.
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
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Xanadu
Old 01-29-2006, 06:40 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Something to think about, is this a raise or fold on the river? You are very unlikely to have the best hand, so is it best to discourage overcallers? Granted, this opens you up to a SB 3-bet, and SB is who you are really worried about anyway.
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ihategnomes
Old 01-30-2006, 07:18 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Im generally never raising a river in which I cant comfortably call a 3 bet. Raising doesnt do much for us here. THe SB is teh Uber-donk
Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 01-30-2006, 09:15 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 If it were HU I could raise the river.


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euphoricism
Old 01-30-2006, 09:33 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I'd say c/f river (whats the point of a read if you don't use it?) but theres too many morons in this game overcalling the river with crap. You don't have to win this often to justify a river call.
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euphoricism
Old 01-30-2006, 09:46 PM #13 (permalink)  
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SB c/r turn, c/c's river? wtf? morons.
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Shark Bait
Old 01-30-2006, 11:40 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
SB c/r turn, c/c's river? wtf? morons.
poor players instantly assume there is a flush out there when 3 of a suit comes.

You have to bet this river though. calling 3 on the flop I put him on 2 clubs. Even if you assume he had 78, you still have a good redraw.
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