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dsaxton
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07-24-2007, 01:06 AM
Post subject: Raise river?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Raise river or just call and why? No reads on anybody, but they seem like typical fish.
PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Q , A .
1 fold, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, MP caps, Hero calls, BB calls.
Flop: (12.33 SB) T, 6 , Q (3 players)
BB bets, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, MP calls, Hero calls.
Turn: (11.16 BB) 4 (3 players)
BB bets, MP calls, Hero calls.
River: (14.16 BB) Q (3 players)
BB bets, MP calls, Hero ?
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sinky
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: SCOTLAND
Posts: 295
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MP capped preflop, raised the flop QT6, and then just called down after flop gets capped. So I would put him on JJ or AQ (or maybe AA, KK). So at worst we split with MP.
BB just called pre-flop and after that bet at every opportunity. Hands that beat you are TT, 66 and maybe QhTh (7 combos). Hands that you beat are AA, KK (9 combos) and maybe KhQh and QhJh. Could also be a split against AQ.
Calling costs you 1 BB to find out you are behind.
Raising will most likely win an extra 2 BB if you are ahead, but costs you 3 BB to find out you are behind.
No doubt someone will show that raising is higher EV than calling, but it will be close, so with no reads I call.
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chardrian
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I rarely,if ever, get pms
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,524
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Raise.
You are behind 66, TQ and TT. You are ahead of everything else (which is a lot - AA, KK, AcKc, JcKc, JK, AcJc, QK.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by chardrian
Raise.
You are behind 66, TQ and TT. You are ahead of everything else (which is a lot - AA, KK, AcKc, JcKc, JK, AcJc, QK.
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I dunno, I think JJ in the right read for MP, maybe AA/KK who got freaked out on the flop, BB looks like a combo draw/set but once he donks the river you can pretty much remove the draws from his range.
Heat of the moment I just call
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I'm raising.
This is a perfect example of what makes SH so read-dependent. The BB shouldn't be playing 66 or TT getting only 4.5 to 1 (but many people do). He certainly shouldn't be playing QT (though some people do). He may just be calling 3 bets with AA or KK rather than raising them for deception purposes, or he may have AQ or KQ. Given that you have an Ace in your hand, KQ is more likely than AQ.
That being said, a fish will play a lot of hands and raise with a lot of hands, so it's hard to put them on a hand. Another thing i've noticed is they tend to suffer from a certain mental inertia. If he's ahead on the flop (with AA, for example), he's already counting his winnings. Even when the river comes up a Q, a lot of guys will still bet their AA without thinking.
I also want to think about what happens if you either raise or call. If you call, the player behind you calls or folds (or raises if he has trip queens, which seems unlikely given the action). If you raise the river he will probably fold rather than pay two bets without a Q or a set. If he does have a Q or a set he's going to re-raise and you will have to call (though still possibly with the best hand).
Then you have to consider the BB. If you raise, he is going to fold his busted flush draw, call with or possibly raise a Q, and possibly make a crying call with AA or KK.
In short, there's so many unknowns involved that you can't definitely put either player on a hand. I know i would raise with trips and an Ace with no flush or straight draws out there, based on the idea that it's unlikely anyone has you beat. If he's got 66 or TT, say 'nh' and move on.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by chardrian
Raise.
You are behind 66, TQ and TT. You are ahead of everything else (which is a lot - AA, KK, AcKc, JcKc, JK, AcJc, QK.
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He didn't cap preflop, so A-A and K-K should be heavily discounted. A-K, K-J, and A-J all fold to a river raise, which leaves K-Q as the only hand from this range that pays off a raise. I'm not convinced that the benefit of possibly getting called by one hand is worth the risk of being 3-bet by a full house.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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BB has 66/TT/QTs/AQ here A LOT unless you have a read that he refuses to fold his BB. If that's your read then his range is lots of crap you beat, so raise it up.
I think the guy who clearly has KK/AA is going to pay off a single bet reguardless.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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flop is a far more interesting street.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
flop is a far more interesting street.
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Not really.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Yes really.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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Looks to me like you have MP dominated, why else would he simply call the turn AND the river (AA, JJ?). BB - guess he could have 66 or ten ten, but there are a few other hands he could have to... He raised the turn, only got callers so he's always going to raise the river. I would re-raise him on the river and laugh as I watch him fold or call, or call his three-bet with my fingers crossed
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