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Raise this River?

  
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 01-02-2006, 08:10 PM     Post subject: Raise this River? #1 (permalink)  
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elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point
 Opponent is 55/17/1.6, Folds 40 % of SB and 28.5 % of BB. Consider this your average aggressive 10/20 opponent.

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Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A.
3 folds, Button calls, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, Button folds, SB calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 5, A, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 4 (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB


I would hate to get 3bet here on the river when I cant fold. But I dont think he puts me on AK and he could very well be slow playing AA, KK, or any 5 here.


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Demiparadigm
Old 01-02-2006, 09:59 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I don't think I could justify a raise.

Not after the turn action.

The turn K is actually a bad card for you since you were already beating any A, but now you are behind KK also. (which is well within a 3 bet range for most players.) I would rather see any card <T on the turn.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 01-02-2006, 11:26 PM #3 (permalink)  
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his aggression is only 1.6
he capped the turn on you.
i think you should call here.
 
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ArcticKnight
Old 01-06-2006, 06:01 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Hi Jeff

I couldn't raise here, but I tend to be a river whimp anyway.

Because there are no flush or OESD draws on the board, you can assume he is not seeing your aggression as playing a drawing hand hard, and you can assume his aggression isn't that either ( and his AF of 1.6 isn't high). That said, his bet on the river says "I know you have some kind of made hand, but I'm still betting into you." Therefore, I can't see a raise here.

Jeff, do mix it up sometimes by just calling Pre-flop with AK here in the BB?
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koolmoe
Old 01-06-2006, 01:41 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I could see a weak A playing this way since the K makes his kicker irrelevant, but I'd feel like I was behind more than 50% of the time, so I wouldn't want to get any more bets in on the river.
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