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Raise or check/call draws?

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Nexter

09-08-2007, 01:46 PM Post subject: Raise or check/call draws?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 26

Well this hand that follows is my most profitable hand so far. Yeah ok its only $2, but its big for 0.05/0.1

But did I play it right? The game is pretty loose, most players are raising with speculative hands. MP3 is extremely loose with a VP$IP of 64, calls anything, even 3-Bet 56o in a previous game. Most games get called to the river then they fold when they miss their draws.

Party Poker 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Ah, Kh.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: (20.40 SB) 2h, 3c, 5h
(5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (14.20 BB) 8c
(4 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (20.20 BB) 8h
(3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 22.20 BB
UTG+1 ended up having KK.

I had the nut straight draw and the nut flush draw. So I played very aggressive. I tend to play very aggressive on my draws, but they only pay off every now and then. So even though I took this pot down, I'm unsure if this was still the correct way to play the hand. Would defensive play pay off better over the long term, just calling when the pot odds give you the chance?

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daven

09-09-2007, 03:46 AM

#2 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

Your instinct proved to be right here, it was played correctly. But the reason may help a little later on...
First, a comment. Your straight draw wasn't to the nut straight, if a 4 comes and someone has a 6 then your party is over..

But you did have 12 strong outs. On this sort of table I sometimes play as you did to try and disguise my hand. Long-term, the answer is very much it depends. Try this on a strong table too frequently and they will eat you.

Someone may correct me, but i think 12 outs with 3 guaranteed callers means it's best to bet here. Just checked, Abdul Jalib agrees with me... chances are i'm right... anyway, only bet your draws according t0 the following. Unless you think you can win the pot by everyone folding... or the implied value of disguising your hand makes it worthwhile... or...

Anyway. This is what I think (I checked the maths a while back and it seemed sound):
if 1 opponent will call you need 23 outs for it to be +EV
if 2 opponents call - need 15 outs
if 3 - 11.5 outs
if 4 - 9 outs.

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

daven

09-09-2007, 03:48 AM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

a further thought, you may have less outs than i initially thought. If someone has a set or two pairs then some of your heart outs complete someone else's full house. Appears nobody had a set or full house though...

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

Fnord

09-09-2007, 08:54 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Turn raise is spew. Otherwise, you're getting the idea.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

daven

09-09-2007, 09:37 AM

#5 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Turn raise is spew. Otherwise, you're getting the idea.

is it? Is this only because of the risk of being 3-bet? is it different if he can guarantee 3 callers and no re-raise? I'm curious on this one...

Fnord

09-09-2007, 09:51 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Once a blank comes off on the turn, his equity takes a pretty big hit. Getting 3-bet sucks and if we suck out we'd love to be bet into.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

daven

09-09-2007, 04:55 PM

#7 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Once a blank comes off on the turn, his equity takes a pretty big hit. Getting 3-bet sucks and if we suck out we'd love to be bet into.

Hadn't thought about how this would affect the chances of other players betting the river. I was stuck on one street... Thanks

euphoricism

09-09-2007, 06:34 PM

#8 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Posts: 3,610

Yes, raising this turn was spewy. You would LOVE to see the river for only one bet here, theres almost no chance your going to win the pot with your raise... I cant really think of any good reason to raise this turn.

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daven

09-09-2007, 06:59 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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what about the number of callers vs the number of outs making a raise +EV? or is that just wishful thinking on my part?

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

Fnord

09-09-2007, 08:55 PM

#10 (permalink)

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If you never jammed a draw on the turn, you're at worst making a trivial error.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

daven

09-09-2007, 10:19 PM

#11 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

If you never jammed a draw on the turn, you're at worst making a trivial error.

I think I;m going to adjust my game accordingly when I start playing limit again. Cheers.

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

Hermann the Lombard

09-10-2007, 03:58 AM

#12 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

If you never jammed a draw on the turn, you're at worst making a trivial error.

OK, Fnord, you're broadening my vocabulary again. What does it mean to "jam a draw"?

[Also, you never explained "Ni Han" in that other thread...]

bigspenda73

09-10-2007, 04:19 AM

#13 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Posts: 7,545

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

Ni Han means Nice Hand (well played)

Jam a draw would mean to jam the pot with more bets, meaning to bet/raise with your draw instead of just calling or not capping.

Nexter

09-10-2007, 05:40 AM

#14 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 26

Thanks for your replies. I've started to play my draws more cautiously now. I'm trying to pay more attention to discounted outs and pot odds. Which can really get me down when I fold and one of my out hits. Though I keep telling myself I made money with the fold.

Fnord

09-10-2007, 05:58 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Nexter

I'm trying to pay more attention to discounted outs and pot odds. Which can really get me down when I fold and one of my out hits. Though I keep telling myself I made money with the fold.

What exactly are you folding?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Nexter

09-10-2007, 06:28 AM

#16 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 26

Usually gut shot straight draws. With so little outs and usually 1 out helps someone make a flush so I don't get the odds to call. I will play flush draws to the river since I nearly always have the odds to call.

daven

09-10-2007, 06:31 AM

#17 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

What exactly are you folding?

and when? chuck in a couple of hand histories, I'd be interested in seeing what people have to say about them.

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

Nexter

09-10-2007, 07:54 AM

#18 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 26

Ok heres a couple of examples I dug up.

Party Poker 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed)
(Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Ad, Tc.
2 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) Jc, 9h, 8h (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, Button raises, BB folds, Hero calls, MP2 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (10.20 BB) Kd (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Button raises, Hero folds, MP2 calls $0.59 (All-In), Button calls.

River: (20 BB) Qs (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 16 BB

Results in white below:
MP2 has Th 7s (straight, king high).
Button has Qd Jd (two pair, queens and jacks).
Outcome: MP2 wins 16 BB. Button wins 4 BB.

I don' think I played the above hand well at all. I think I should of got out on the flop instead of cold-calling the raise.

Party Poker 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (8 handed)
(Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Th, 9s.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9c, 8s, 6c (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, SB 3-bets, Hero folds, UTG+1 caps, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 5c (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 7s (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has Qs Qh (straight, nine high).
CO doesn't show.
SB has 9h Ah (straight, nine high).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 7.25 BB. SB wins 7.25 BB.

The 3 bet on the flop scared me. I probably just had the right pot odds when not discounting. Thought it was safer to fold.

euphoricism

09-10-2007, 01:31 PM

#19 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Nexter:

Hand 1) You can let it go on the flop facing two, realizing even if you hit you're probably drawing to a split, and someone seems to really like their hand. However, Since youre getting 10.4:2 (or 5.2:1) on your flop call, calling isnt terrible. Getting 3bet and capped here sucks but not much you can do.

Basically the same situation on the turn, youre getting 12:2 or 6:1 so again calling wouldnt be terrible.

The question of tainted outs here is tough. Someone sure looks like they like their hand, but that could be sets, JT, 9T, button could have AA, etc etc, so im not sure I'd discount your T or 7 too much.

I dont fault you for folding on the turn, nor would i fault you for folding on the flop.

Any time youre facing two, folding will never be a horrible mistake.

Hand 2) Easy fold facing three lol

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Hermann the Lombard

09-10-2007, 03:59 PM

#20 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

Well, on hand two you had 4:1 at the instant you folded but with a good possibility that one of them would cap it, messing up those odds. At minimum I think I would discount the 7c as it may create a flush or flush draw, and your 9 is counterfeited and a JT might be lurking up there. I would fold. [Novice comments.]

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