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LeFou

11-21-2004, 03:44 PM Post subject: Quit when you've lost 30 BB

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Dallas, TX

Posts: 2,361

This is Annie Duke's way of minimizing the time you spend pissed off at the table.

Applying this strategy has resulted in a kind of annoying but very predictable routine:

I sit down (at .25/.50)
I lose 30 BB ($6) to J2, K4, 85o etc.
I leave

Here, essentially, is what's happening -- I'd appreciate comments

I see about 30% of flops inc. blinds.
4 out of 5 flops miss me completely
2 out of 3 flops that hit me the pot goes to the other guy that they also hit.

The math, then, is like this. Does it seem "right" (average)?
3/10 X 1/5 = 6% of the time I have some reason to continue to the turn
about 1/3 of those times I drag the pot. The turn or river will ruin my hand about half the time, but I'll win 2/3rds of showdowns when it doesn't

So it's a pot every 5 orbits, i.e. $1.25 in blinds
another $1.25 for the non-blind PF calls
another $3 (approx. $1 each) for the hands I go to the end with, calling flop and turn bets or making them

So I need $5.50 per pot -- and the pots I'm getting are only about $4.

Which ratio, do you think, is the culprit? I didn't pokertracker these, it's just from rough mental estimates.

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Nehmer

11-21-2004, 03:54 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Decatur, IL

Posts: 666

Quote:

4 out of 5 flops miss me completely

I believe that you should flop a pair about 1 out of 3 times. Count in times that you have a high pocket pair and the flop should be completely missing you less than 2 out of 3 times.

Quote:

2 out of 3 flops that hit me the pot goes to the other guy that they also hit.

This seems like a big problem with your starting hand requirements if true. So I would guess that your math is based on some assumptions that just aren't true.

LeFou

11-21-2004, 04:23 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehmer

I believe that you should flop a pair about 1 out of 3 times. Count in times that you have a high pocket pair and the flop should be completely missing you less than 2 out of 3 times.

Thanks, I'm with you. I don't consider a pair good reason to continue unless it's TP -- i.e. 1/3 of the pairs I flop. 1/16 of hole cards are pairs, about half of those are high.
So 1/9 plus 1/8 = 1/4.2 or so. Round of to 1/4 for the times that 2nd or 3rd pair has something else going for it.

=25%

1/8 suited hole cards (which you get 1/4 times) will flop a 4flush.

+3%

Approx. the same #/connected cards will flop a OESD? Not sure of that one

3%

so 31% of flops should be acceptable, not counting tolerable overcard-only calls.

Looks like I might just be getting a run of crappy flops.

LeFou

11-21-2004, 04:38 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehmer

Quote:

2 out of 3 flops that hit me the pot goes to the other guy that they also hit.

This seems like a big problem with your starting hand requirements if true. So I would guess that your math is based on some assumptions that just aren't true.

I'm curious about this: as in the OP, "the turn or river will ruin my hand about half the time, but I'll win 2/3rds of showdowns when it doesn't"

I'm getting better at getting away from decent hands that are likely second-best. It seems like at these limits, winning 2/3rds of showdowns (which often have 3+ players in 'em) is acceptable. And getting out of half the hands at the turn or river feels right, too.

Anyway, if those numbers suck, how do you figure the problem is in starting hands? As per my other topic in this forum, I used to play much "looser" starts -- the biggest difference being some low offsuit connectors in late position.

Would higher cards generally mean the the turn/river don't ruin my hand as often? e.g.

J9s

Flop 389 r

QK and A hurt my hand here, but not much else...

but

75s

Flop 367

an card >= 8 looks like trouble for this one...

just thinking aloud...

Nehmer

11-21-2004, 06:41 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: Oct 2004

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Quote:

Anyway, if those numbers suck, how do you figure the problem is in starting hands? As per my other topic in this forum, I used to play much "looser" starts -- the biggest difference being some low offsuit connectors in late position.

Would higher cards generally mean the the turn/river don't ruin my hand as often? e.g.

Higher cards in your starting hand definately mean that the turn/river don't ruin your hand as often. If you have AK and flop top pair on a flop similar to K93 rainbow, there are a lot fewer cards that can ruin your hand than if you have AT and the flop comes T53 rainbow. In both situations, you have TPTK, but in the second hand any JQK takes away your top pair. Then if you get into the hands you were talking about of J9s or 75s, unless you flop the nut straight or trips, there will be a lot of scare cards that can come on the turn or river. Top pair in these situations is not going to hold up and if you flop 2 pair and are against somebody else with 2 pair, you are most likely the one that will lose. Heck, even if you flop the flush, any other card of that suit gives a good chance of you being beaten. Anyway, the better your starting hand is, the more likely your cards are to stay the best hand when you do hit your flop.

zenbitz

11-21-2004, 06:51 PM

#6 (permalink)

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don't play J9s, unless in a blind, .or maybe good position with 4-5 limpers.

If you have high cards (AK/Q/J), and the flop misses you - you have to jam, especially if there is no flush draw out. Don't call raises, and be willing to check/fold the river. Becareful also of betting out of position, because if you have been Tight/Agressive, the calling stations will respect any bet you make, and call you down with top pair!

LeFou

11-21-2004, 07:39 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by zenbitz

don't play J9s, unless in a blind, .or maybe good position with 4-5 limpers.

This kinda makes me wonder if I have the patience for microlimit. When there are 2-3 people at the table for whom T6o and K5o are good enough to call a PF raise, then I'm damn sure playing J9s.

I probably just need a break; my brain is fried. I'm now on 8 consecutive sessions losing 30BB

elipsesjeff

11-21-2004, 07:42 PM

#8 (permalink)

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elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

I lose 30 BB ($6) to J2, K4, 85o etc.

First off, this is only 12 BB, 30 BB is losing $15. And if you feel uncomfortable losing 30 BB then you should quit. However, if you have a bankroll of 300BB (like you should) then really a 30 BB drop is nothing more than a mental issue. What has been the reason you've lost the 30BB? Were you outplayed or outdrawn? Can you spot the suckers at the table and are they the reason you lost the money? Leaving a table just because you lost 30 BB is wrong. You should leave the table if you feel uncomfortable and your play is being worsened because of it (not being as aggressive). Also, if you find there are a bunch of Rocks or Tight-aggressive players at your table get out of there, they are only going to compete for your money.

Secondly, if you follow generally accepted starting hands as found on the webpage its probably the post-flop strategy you need to work on. Knowing how to protect your hand (check-raising) and being much more aggressive when you are ahead will make you win a lot more. Most small stakes players are afraid of aggression, and if you show it you can take advantage of free cards, and force them to make the decision that you don't have the best hand. Just because you have AK and you 3 bet preflop and you didnt catch anything, doesnt mean anyone else did either. If you are in late position, raise the bettor and not just call. He'll check to you on the turn giving you a free card and if you still don't spike an A or K on the river you fold to his bet. Many players will simply bet out with middle pair or TP no kicker and are afraid of a better hand.

If you haven't done so look into Sklansky's Small Stakes Hold'em, it goes indepth of Post-Flop strategies and how to take advantage. Most money won and lost will come in how you play after the flop comes.

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AllinLife

11-22-2004, 03:39 AM

#9 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2004

Posts: 530

everything elipsesjeff said.

those "stop lines" don't make any logical sense.

"Is there any chance I'm going to lay this 9-high baby down? That's really not my style."
- Gus Hansen

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