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littleogre
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04-08-2006, 10:35 AM
Post subject: Question about playing the river in liimit holdem
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Ok you are heads up at the river with a hand like A/Q that hit top pair top kicker on the flop but the turn brought a possible flush for the other guy so you check called with the intentions of beting the river. So you do just that they raise. Now folding is to weak tight. My question is or actully part question part statement. I feel that it is actually correct to reraise even when you feel that you have a less then 50% chance of wining the pot due to the fact that the pot is so large that they will feel obligated to call with a weaker hand. My question is about how big does the pot need to be to make that reraise a good idea.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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I don't think it's the size of the pot, but the nature of the player. Most players will rarely or never raise the river if they can't beat top pair. Exposing yourself to the risk of a 4-bet is much more costly than anything you may gain from weaker hands calling you. I think you will get 4-bet at least as often as a weaker hand calls you. And since you are possibly risking 2 bets to win one, you have to be ahead way more than half here.
You already stated you expect to win less than 50%. How can you expect to make a profitable raise on the river with a less than 50% winning chance? Certainly every hand that beats top pair will call or raise. Most bluffers will have the sense to fold. This is very -EV. The larger pot sizes just lose you slightly less money because a few more hands you beat may call.
You have to think about what is likely to happen on the river. Suppose you 3-bet and expect to always be called and make 1 more bet when you are ahead, and that 1/3 of the time you are behind your opponent will raise and you always call. The other 2/3 your opponent is ahead he always calls. You should have an idea of the x% of the time you need to be ahead to break even here. To solve this, suppose you have an x% chance of winning. The equation to solve to break even is:
x-2(1/3)(1-x)-2/3(1-x)=0
The first term is the bets you win. The second is when your opponent caps and you lose. The third is when your opponent calls and you lose. With these assumptions, x=4/7 or a little over 57%. The more likely your opponent is to cap it, the higher your estimated winning chances need to be. Sometimes, you can set your opponent at 100% to cap it when you are behind. For example, when you have the second nuts. If you have the second nuts, you need to expect to win 2/3 of the time for a reraise to break even.
Understanding all this is far more important than the unlikely possibility of having the situation you described actually being profitable. An analog to the situation you described that is profitable is the occassional maniacal bluffer that just won't fold when beaten.
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outphase
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 949
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The river is definitely not the best place to be raising if you just have TPTK. Also, if capped, can you call? I certainly hope not. if you have TPTK on the flop, why are you check/calling the turn with the hopes of bet/raising the river? why not just bet the turn?
(i didn't read the post above me in case anything was repeated)
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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So wait lemme sort this out.
Flop is Axx two suited, you have AQ
You check he bets you call
Turn brings the flush
You check he bets you call
River is a rag
You bet, he raises, you ...?
If that is how the hand went down, you farked it up. Bet the flop. Changes the whole thing. We do this line with, like, second pair against an opponent we're going to call down anyway and we dont want to be raised on the turn and we dont want him to check behind.
As played, you should probably fold. He doesnt raise the river without beating top pair.
If you had led the flop, led the turn, and he raised on the turn flush card, would you call this player down?
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Atually the hand i posted is a make believe hand that i was just useing to make a point. Perhaps it doesn't do a good job so i will try again. Lets say you flop tptk in a heads up pot versus a player that likes to play hands weaker then tptk aggressivly but will give up if you push back to hard. Ie the guy that likes to raise with pocket jacks even though there is a queen on the flop. he will fold if you reraise the flop or lead out on the turn but has a habit of feeling obigated to bet if you check. I run into those types all the time and i find that it is more profitable to just let them hang themselves then to try and run them out of the pot. Sure this requires that the other guy plays in certain way. Basically if you are playing a person that can't help but to try and steal the pot if you show weakness then you are better off to let them lead out or atleast it seems that way to me.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Also i'm not trying to sound like a smart ass in the above posst just trying to make a point.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
Atually the hand i posted is a make believe hand that i was just useing to make a point. Perhaps it doesn't do a good job so i will try again. Lets say you flop tptk in a heads up pot versus a player that likes to play hands weaker then tptk aggressivly but will give up if you push back to hard. Ie the guy that likes to raise with pocket jacks even though there is a queen on the flop. he will fold if you reraise the flop or lead out on the turn but has a habit of feeling obigated to bet if you check. I run into those types all the time and i find that it is more profitable to just let them hang themselves then to try and run them out of the pot. Sure this requires that the other guy plays in certain way. Basically if you are playing a person that can't help but to try and steal the pot if you show weakness then you are better off to let them lead out or atleast it seems that way to me.
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This is a good play against the right player. But this is very different (even against the same kind of player) when you bet the river and they raise as in your initial post. Now your reraise is -EV in almost all situations where if you check, they bet you raise is +EV.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
Atually the hand i posted is a make believe hand that i was just useing to make a point. Perhaps it doesn't do a good job so i will try again. Lets say you flop tptk in a heads up pot versus a player that likes to play hands weaker then tptk aggressivly but will give up if you push back to hard. Ie the guy that likes to raise with pocket jacks even though there is a queen on the flop. he will fold if you reraise the flop or lead out on the turn but has a habit of feeling obigated to bet if you check. I run into those types all the time and i find that it is more profitable to just let them hang themselves then to try and run them out of the pot. Sure this requires that the other guy plays in certain way. Basically if you are playing a person that can't help but to try and steal the pot if you show weakness then you are better off to let them lead out or atleast it seems that way to me.
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This is a good play against the right player. But this is very different (even against the same kind of player) when you bet the river and they raise as in your initial post. Now your reraise is -EV in almost all situations where if you check, they bet you raise is +EV. |
ty for the reply.
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