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Question about free card play math.

  
 
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Ragnar4
Old 04-21-2006, 10:07 PM     Post subject: Question about free card play math. #1 (permalink)  
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Howdee all,

I know it's been a while, but after a few losing sessions I made the choice to go back to the pure fundamentals and re-learn the game without a chip on my shoulder. I'm back, but I have a question about the free card play.

Lets say that I'm holding 8d9d against 2 passive players on the button, I smooth call because I've been raising with this type of hand from the button all night, and I Think they are on to me. I call, SB folds, BB checks (4sb)

9dTd
Flop comes
Jd 7h 2c

Here's where I have a question about the math, first bettor leads out, everyone calls, I decide to use the free card play (6bb). and raise, it works like a charm, the turn misses with a 3c, but the riverI connect with the 8, giving me the pure nuts. I bet and get a crying call from one player who has QJ I scoop 7bb. Here's the Question:

Since I was only 10.5 to complete, did I Need to make 10.5 BB in order to profit from the play? Or since the play worked do I devide the 10.5BB in half (two cards for one bet instead of only one) and instead only need 5.25 BB in order to draw a profit. I'm clearly profitably against 5.25 and not against 10.5 BB.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Shark Bait
Old 04-21-2006, 11:55 PM #2 (permalink)  
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so is it 98 or T9? Either way, you have an inside draw with a small pot and it's an easy fold. Free card play should be used when you have a decent amount of outs, like 7+ and if you don't hit, you will not have a hand at all. Also, you want to be last to act.

The free card play working best is when someone bets on the river when you hit.
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elipsesjeff
Old 04-22-2006, 12:21 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Well, its not an easy fold but an easy call. In this instance the free card play worked out and if it works out every time then it may be +EV.


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Shark Bait
Old 04-22-2006, 12:33 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Here's a slightly better answer...

suppose you have 98 on the button and the flop is 27T. One player bets, another calls and you call, you miss the turn and the same player bets and you call again and you miss on the river and now you have to fold. Total cost after the flop is 1.5 BB

Now same situation, but you raise on the flop, the others call, and most of the time they will check to you on the turn. If you hit, you keep betting, if you don't you check. If you miss the river, you can check/fold for a total cost of 1 BB.

Like I said before, many players will see your turn check as a sign of weakness and will bet before you. If you hit, you can raise. Otherwise, you only wasted 1 BB.
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Ragnar4
Old 04-22-2006, 12:48 AM     Post subject: huh #5 (permalink)  
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I don't think you got the Gist of my Question.

I chose to excercise the play. It worked. Now I need to know if it is justified. I was 10.5 - 1 to draw to the nuts.

I made more than 10.5 small bets, and less than 10.5 Big bets.

Since I paid 2 small bets to see two cards, can I be happy that I made pot equity, or sad because I Didn't make pot equity? Do I devide the 10.5 big bets in half since I saw two cards?
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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spoonitnow
Old 04-22-2006, 01:10 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 Does anyone else have absolutely no idea what he's asking?
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Rule # 1: don't ask questions

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I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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Nehmer
Old 04-22-2006, 01:21 AM     Post subject: Re: huh #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
I don't think you got the Gist of my Question.

I chose to excercise the play. It worked. Now I need to know if it is justified. I was 10.5 - 1 to draw to the nuts.

I made more than 10.5 small bets, and less than 10.5 Big bets.

Since I paid 2 small bets to see two cards, can I be happy that I made pot equity, or sad because I Didn't make pot equity? Do I devide the 10.5 big bets in half since I saw two cards?
Well, you paid 1 BB to win roughly 6BB(we won't count the river call that might not happen here). You need to win at least 14.3% of the time for this to be a winning play. You have roughly 5 outs for the inside straight draw + backdoor flush draw. This means that you have about a 20% chance of winning the hand with 2 cards to come, so your play is +EV if you don't count in the chances of being 3-bet or being donk-bet on the turn. We can't know exactly how often either of those situations will happen, but I would guess it won't be often enough to make this play -EV. Now factor in that you probably are going to get paid off at least 1 and possibly more BB when you hit and this is definately +EV.

It's too bad that it would be almost impossible to play enough to get an accurate sample comparing using the free card play here vs just calling the flop and seeing which is more +EV actually in practice.
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Nehmer
Old 04-22-2006, 01:24 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Does anyone else have absolutely no idea what he's asking?
He is saying that he is 10.5:1 to draw to the nuts on the next card and wants to know if he can divide that number in half, because he gets to see 2 cards. The answer to his question is yes(for the most part).
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Fnord
Old 04-22-2006, 01:39 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Free card plays are about a lot more than math. When they work it's great. When they fail it's giving away money.
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elipsesjeff
Old 04-22-2006, 01:40 AM     Post subject: Re: huh #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehmer
It's too bad that it would be almost impossible to play enough to get an accurate sample comparing using the free card play here vs just calling the flop and seeing which is more +EV actually in practice.
Thats pretty much what i was thinking too.


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Fnord
Old 04-22-2006, 01:42 AM     Post subject: Re: huh #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehmer
It's too bad that it would be almost impossible to play enough to get an accurate sample comparing using the free card play here vs just calling the flop and seeing which is more +EV actually in practice.
Thats pretty much what i was thinking too.
This is why "feel" is important here. What's your read, how's the game play? How often do you get a fold to your flop raise (even 5% is a big deal)? Do you have any other outs? etc...

Sometimes the plays are close enough that you can mix them up for Shania.
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Shark Bait
Old 04-22-2006, 01:50 AM #12 (permalink)  
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I can't believe you guys are calling/raising with a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw and a small pot. What about without the backdoor flush draw?
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elipsesjeff
Old 04-22-2006, 02:31 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shark Bait
I can't believe you guys are calling/raising with a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw and a small pot. What about without the backdoor flush draw?
You ever think you are too tight? You only need 6.5-1 on a gutshot and i can see if you get 6-1 on a raise and get a free card to boot sounds good to me.


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silverfist
Old 05-06-2006, 05:17 AM #14 (permalink)  
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I think the math would look something like this:

Let's say you had a flush draw (35% or so to win), and your opponent will either give you the free card or 3-bet you, making you call down to the river:

You get your free card:

You hit: Lose 1 SB of winnings (35% chance)
You miss: Save 1 SB (65% chance)

So, overall, you gain ~0.4 SBs if you succeed (65%*1-35%*1)

You don't get your free card:

You hit: Gain 2 SB of winnings (35% chance)
You miss: Lose 2 SB more (65% chance)

So, overall, you lose ~0.8 SBs if you fail (35%*2-65%*2)

So, you'll want to get the free card about 2/3s of the time.

Does this seem right to people?
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