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littleogre
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02-03-2006, 09:11 PM
Post subject: Question about back door draws.
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Ok this is not a question about knowing the odds needed to play them. I know if i need lets say 67 to complete a str8 i count it as 1.5 out with 2 cards to come. now lets say i can complete my str8 with 2 sets of runners i would give myself 3 outs?
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thenonsequitur
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02-03-2006, 09:56 PM
Post subject: Re: Question about back door draws.
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#2 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 637
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If I remember correctly, you count .5 outs per straight possibility. So if you have 47 and the flop is 3QK, your only possibility is 56, so that's .5 outs. If you have TJ and the flop is 23Q, you have three possibilities (89, 9K, KA), so that's 1.5 outs. Etc... I can only back this up with a vague memory of reading it somewhere, so someone correct me if I'm wrong.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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nope. (to the initial question)
It depends on the gaps on your backdoor straight draw. A one-gapper has twice the chance of a two-gapper, and a no-gapper has 3 times the chance of a two-gapper.
If you have a 2 gapper, you need one of 8 cards on the turn then one of 4 cards on the river to get the straight. There are 47*46=2162 different ways for the turn and river to fall. 8*4=32 of these ways give you a straight. 32/2162 is about 1.5%
With a one gapper, there are 4 cards that give you an OESD, after which 8 cards will give you the straight. There are also 8 cards that give you a gutshot, after which 4 will give you the straight. 32+32=64 ways to get the straight, happening about 3% of the time.
With no gaps, 8 cards give you an OESD, after which 8 cards make the straight. Also, 8 other cards give you a gutshot leaving 4 outs on the river. In this case you have 64+32=96 ways to get the straight. This is about 4.44%. The no gap backdoor straight is actually slightly more likely to come in than the backdoor flush where you have 10*9=90/2162 ways to get the flush, about 4.16%.
A one outer comes in about 4.3% of the time by the river. So, the frequency with which either a backdoor flush draw or a no gap backdoor straight draw comes in is pretty much the same as a one-out draw. Both draws are actually worth about 1.5 outs because if you miss on the turn you can fold because you now have 0 outs. Seeing the turn is more valuable than seeing the river because seeing the river has no value if you don't hit the turn card.
So, a backdoor straight draw is worth 0.5, 1.0, or 1.5 outs roughly:
789: 1.5 outs
689: 1.0 outs
589: 0.5 outs
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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Also of note:
A flush draw that needs runner-runner is roughly worth one out.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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ihategnomes
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
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A flush draw that needs runner-runner is roughly worth one out.
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1.90 outs actually.
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Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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1.9? Where do you get that number? SSH Values it at about just a shade under one.
If you have ten outs to catch the first card, and 9 outs to catch the 2nd, (10/47)(9/46) =(approx)1/24 or 23-1 dawg.
If you have one out at the Flop, you have 2 chances to catch against 47 cards (Turn and river), or 2/47 = 1/23.5 making you a 22.5-1 dawg.
Where is the other .9 outs coming from in your math?
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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I thought SSH had it at 1.5 outs.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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My analysis was word for word from SSH on the counting "hidden outs" pages.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Therefore, a backdoor flush draw is worth about one out.
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However, about half a paragraph on,
Quote:
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Also, if you do complete your flush, your observant opponents will often not suspect it (as they would if a third flush card came to a flopped two-flush), so you can frequently collect extra river bets. A reasonable estimate for the value a backdoor flush draw adds is 1.5 outs.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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Touche`
Argumentatively, I have a hard time valuing something dependant on the money I could collect for hitting a backdoor flush because I did it un-naturally.
If I value the out realistically, I always know exactally what my odds are of hitting the hand (which is what's most important to me.)
I think the argument that it can earn you more money is for sophisticated players with more skill than I have. Perhaps It's something I should strive for?
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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