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QTs OESD on the turn

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Hermann the Lombard

01-24-2008, 06:33 PM Post subject: QTs OESD on the turn

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q

, T

.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) Q

, J

, A

(6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 9

(2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero...

Villain has been 54/14/1.8 but 5.5 AF on the river. He often checks the flop (MPGK,TPNK,FD,SD) so his bet here *might* mean something (but sample size is <60 hands). Still, he shows down a lot of Ax and Kx raggy hands.

I have MP with a decent kicker and the OESD (gutshot to the nuts). I think I'm ahead and plan a bet/call right here though I wouldn't like to see a check/raise (even getting 7:1). If the river is a blank I plan to call or bet/cry. If the river is a spade...call or check behind(?).

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DrivingDog

01-24-2008, 07:43 PM Post subject: Re: QTs OESD on the turn

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

From whatever your read is worth over this few hands, I'd say villian has Ace, weak kicker most of the time and your raise has shut him down. I don't see any value in betting the turn and I would probably check behind the river UI.

The flop raise is the crucial part of the hand to me. I'd like to consider the pros and cons of this:

Pro 1: It may fold out Kx hands behind us that would cost us the pot if a T came.

Pro 2: It may fold out Tx hands behind us that we would have to split the pot with if a K came.

Pro 3: It may fold out weak Aces behind us that aren't willing to call two bets cold (though this is not much use if the flop bettor also has anAce)

Pro 4: If everyone behind us folds, it gives us the option of taking a free card on the turn

Con 1: We probably don't have the best hand given the bet from early position with the Ace on board.

Con 2: We won't get a FD behind us to fold on the flop and this, coupled with Con 1, means we may be caught between the best hand and the best draw. Ugly.

Con 3: (this is the opposite of Pro 1) It destroys our implied odds for hitting a straight by folding everyone behind us who may have been willing to call a single bet on the flop. Note that if someone calls a single flop bet with K9 and a K comes on the river we may end up getting a crying call from this player. Similarly someone with a weak Ace will probably make a crying call on the river as well - but they won't be around to do this if we push them out of the pot on the flop!

Con 4: It destroys any implied odds we might have had if someone with a worse Q is behind us . I.e., raising will probably cause Q9- to fold on the flop - if the case Q comes on the turn or river they will probably send you a nice card. But they will never fold AQ, KQ, QJ, or QT for two flop bets.

Con 5: Our remaining implied odds are poor because if a K or T comes that puts four to a straight on the board and we've already shown aggression it's very hard to get paid off by a weak Ace, the most likely hand for the flop bettor.

Con 6: There's a small but plausible chance that a very strong hand like QJ or KT is around, meaning we are really far behind and going to be putting in three or four bets on the flop to draw, maybe to half the pot.

Con 7: We can improve and still lose the hand and a lot of bets - e.g., a T comes and someone has KJ, a Q comes and someone has KT

In sum, I think a call on the flop is preferable here, even if it seems wimpy, mainly because it preserves our implied odds. With lots of opponents and a drawing hand on a scary board I think it's better to play cautiously vs. an early bettor. Play aggressively on the turn or river if a Q or K hits, and raise/call down if a T hits. Otherwise usually fold the river UI.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

arborman

01-24-2008, 08:45 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 300

What driving dog said. As I was reading the hand I wondered why the flop raise.

A made turn or river would be much more profitable with more people in the hand. And raising opens up the danger of having to call a 3bet - KT is well within the pf calling range of any player in this hand. An ace on the flop means, almost always, that one of your opponents has an ace, so you want him to call your straight down, and you don't want to be heads up with second pair UI.

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QTs OESD on the turn

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