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Hermann the Lombard

11-09-2007, 07:24 PM Post subject: QTo with FD & OESD

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T

, Q

.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K

, 3

, J

(4 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 6

(3 players)
Hero...

UTG+1 is wild preflop and passive after, 82/27.3/0.56, no relevant notes
MP3 looks conservative, 25/6.7/1.33, again no useful notes

On the turn I have a lot of outs, if I check they will both know that I only have a draw, I'd prefer to keep the initiative even OOP...but what will I do if raised? I'll be getting 9 or 10:1 so I wouldn't let it go. One more thing, my FD is not to the nuts and if I hit a straight I might split. It occurs to me that if I was going to shift to c/c mode perhaps I should have done so on the flop.

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arborman

11-09-2007, 08:31 PM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 300

I'd probably keep firing based on your comments, but call or fold to resistance (especially from MP3).

That said, this would be a good time to look at the villain's 'Went to showdown, fold to turn bet and fold to river bet' numbers, to see if you can find any hints. Probably not, but worth a quick look at your popups just in case one of them goes to few but wins 100% of showdowns (and will likely fold without nuts).

But it is a hand where table reads are crucial.

If you think even one of them might fold to that third flush card, it's worth betting out. The turn is a scare card for the opponents too - a semibluff can be very effective. If it isn't, and they don't have the flush themselves, be sure to note that. If they do fold keep that in mind next time.

KoRnholio

11-09-2007, 08:49 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

Check-call one bet. With 2 callers on that flop and the flush hitting the turn, there is almost zero value in a semi-bluff here. The 3rd spade is much more of a scare card for our hand than it is for them (ie, without knowing anyone's hand, UTG1 and MP3 are both much more likely to have a flush now than the BB who lead out on that flop).

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

Fnord

11-09-2007, 08:51 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Bet

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Hermann the Lombard

11-10-2007, 01:39 AM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

Re Stats: sample sizes are too small for those numbers to be meaningful. For example, MP3 had only one opportunity to fold to a river bet. I'll be back to post the next decision point.

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

euphoricism

11-10-2007, 11:09 PM

#6 (permalink)

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If youre going to check/call you might as well bet/fold.

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Hermann the Lombard

11-11-2007, 12:29 AM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T

, Q

.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K

, 3

, J

(4 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 6

(3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 raises, Hero...

So I'm definitely in the "Bet" camp, but I suppose at this point I should fold...especially because it's MP3 doing the raising.

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

Ragnar4

11-12-2007, 05:35 AM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

Since MP3 floated here. Ther's a possibility that his raise is a scarecard steal.

Sure, it's entirely possible that he has AXs here. But my guess is he could have two pair, a set, hell.. or a nuklear bluff.

What about 78s? You're draw could catch you back up.

I like a call here. If you do hit a hand on the river. Bet/fold a straight, bet/call a flush... I think.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

Jibalob

11-12-2007, 08:19 AM

#9 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Location: Out of my roll

Posts: 512

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Since MP3 floated here. Ther's a possibility that his raise is a scarecard steal.

I really dont understand the logic here, alot of people will play AA, KK, JJ, KA, KJ or AsXs the exact same way.

I think you're splitting at best here

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DrivingDog

11-12-2007, 12:05 PM

#10 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

MP3 has a pfr of 7%. Once he raises the turn i think we can narrow his holdings down to the following:

KK, JJ - 6 hands, we have 14 outs
AsKx - 3 hands, we have 6 outs
AsAx - 3 hands, we have 5 outs
AsQs, AsTs - 2 hands, we have 0 outs.

Our equity against this range is about 18%, which is more than enough to call getting 8.75:1.

If we add some more hands to his raising range, e.g, QsQx, AsQx, As9s, QxQx, AsTx, our equity goes up to 20%, so still no reason to fold.

Not clear what's the best move on the river, but i probably b/c any straight card and b/f any flush card.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Hermann the Lombard

11-12-2007, 03:37 PM

#11 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

Thanks, all.

I'll have to think about this one for a while because the same scenario will come up again soon...and all your ideas are better than what I did.

It was one of those "what was I thinking?" moments.

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

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