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QQ out of position vs a tight PF 3-bet

  
 
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Fnord
Old 02-09-2005, 11:05 AM     Post subject: QQ out of position vs a tight PF 3-bet #1 (permalink)  
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Villian is Tight/Passive, haven't seen him raise pre-flop yet.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is UTG with Q, Q.
Fnord raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 3-bets, 7 folds, Fnord calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) T, 3, T (2 players)
Fnord checks, UTG+2 bets, Fnord raises, UTG+2 3-bets, Fnord calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) 8 (2 players)
Fnord checks, UTG+2 bets, Fnord calls.

River: (8.66 BB) 2 (2 players)
Fnord bets, UTG+2 raises, Fnord calls.

Final Pot: 12.66 BB
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Yeldud
Old 02-09-2005, 12:18 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Based on the pure aggression they are displaying, I am putting them on either KK or AA.

The pre-flop raise from a tight/passive smells funny.
If you put all your faith in the river, you are up shit's creek
 
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stevedonel
Old 02-09-2005, 01:36 PM     Post subject: Re: QQ out of position vs a tight PF 3-bet #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Villian is Tight/Passive, haven't seen him raise pre-flop yet.....
How many hands had you played him? I've gone 50-60 hands at a table without a PFR, and my avg is ~7%. But yes, he most likely has a big pair; jacks are possible, but not likely.
Is that guy still part of the forum??
 
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Fnord
Old 02-09-2005, 01:55 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Not much of a sample size to work with, like 20-30 when this hand came.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-09-2005, 02:25 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 1 in 30 is still 3%, However, You're dead and you know it here. I highly doubt the guy is raising you to the river with A high....

I say AA, KK, or your QQ.


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Les_Worm
Old 02-09-2005, 06:27 PM #6 (permalink)  
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What is your thought process on the turn/river? I'm curious why you check/called the turn and then lead out on the river?
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-09-2005, 09:31 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les_worm
What is your thought process on the turn/river? I'm curious why you check/called the turn and then lead out on the river?
I know I know!!!!!


The probability of him raising the river here is very minimal. Thus, this is a way to minimize the amount you lose and maximize the amount you would win. If you check here, if you are ahead, there is a probability that he takes a free showdown. Thus, you lose an extra bet. If you are behind, you check, he bets, you are out the same.

Now lets look at it the other way, you bet out, if you are behind, most of the times you will still lose 1 bet, because the guy is afraid he was just drawn out on and will just call the bet. If you are really behind, the guy will raise (like this example) and you will be forced to call another bet. However, this would lose money in the long run, if it wasnt for the fact that the probability of him raising is much lower than the probability of him calling. Its a +EV play as long as the probability of him raising is less than around 40% (rough estimation).

This is considered a 'play' of experienced players. You see this a lot on Absolute (but they arent experienced) and I see it a lot on 5/10. If you think you are up against this play, then the correct thing to do is to raise (as the guy did in his example).

I hope I explained it well enough, I was wanting to add this to my guide, but I didn't know how to explain it.


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Les_Worm
Old 02-09-2005, 09:35 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I understand. Yes, add this to your guide. I've read through that and this would be a good addition.
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Fnord
Old 02-10-2005, 01:17 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Jeff nailed it. However, I think my river move may have been too aggro in this case because the flop action pretty much established that I was behind. Although, with such a small sample size to work with...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-10-2005, 03:17 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Jeff nailed it. However, I think my river move may have been too aggro in this case because the flop action pretty much established that I was behind. Although, with such a small sample size to work with...
I think you also have to look at what the river card brought: a 2 of hearts...

What possible hand could a 2 of hearts helped out here? Maybe if it paired the board, or if brought a flush draw up, then this would be worthwhile. But I'd say a 2 of hearts here pretty much missed this board completely.

Look at this play:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, J.
4 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 5, 9, K (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (6.20 BB) Q (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 10.20 BB

I think the rule should be, if you can beat TPTK, you should raise the river when bet into if you think this 'play' has been on you. If you have TP no kicker and worse, then calling would be good. For example you have QQ on a board of K9434, then you should probably call if bet into; but if you have AK on a board of K9434, then raising would be the correct play.

Sound good?


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Les_Worm
Old 02-10-2005, 05:05 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Sound good?
Thanks for explaining this. I have actually run into this on a number of occasions and thought it was weird b/c I didn't understand it. Now I see the reason.
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Fnord
Old 02-10-2005, 09:54 AM #12 (permalink)  
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It's basically an attempt to take away some of the edge the player with position has.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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